MSE....Bulls and Bears. At what point?

Sibley

On one side the bears are saying house prices will crash up to 70% from the 2007 peak.

The bulls on the other hand reckon on stagnation followed by rises in house prices.

Who will be right and at what point can we say the argument has finished?

Why don't we draw a line under it?

Let's pick a date and a number instead of pointless batting it back and forth.

If a crash is really on then it has to be in all areas not just up north or in Wales.

How many % will they drop this year lets say by December 31st.

How much next year by same date.

I think the average house price will be higher than now at the end of the year and expect to see 5% growth by December 2012.

It mortgages start becoming easier to get then I would not be surprised to see the 16% rises forecasted in the Daily Express.

So, what say you?

1984ReturnsForReal_2

Sibley wrote: »

So, what say you?

Ignore all "Bulls & Bears" threads & get an element of intelligence from elsewhere?

geneer

oh dear. simpleys been hitting the grown up juice again

Pimperne1

geneer wrote: »

oh dear. simpleys been hitting the grown up juice again

From someone who was predicting a crash at 2005 prices. :rotfl: No wonder you don't want this thread to go anywhere (can't you just report it as normal and get it removed or locked).

Percy1983

Would be interesting to draw lines at points and measure to what people say.

With that it does appear some bulls have now taken the line of anything less than a 70% fall is a win for them.

1984ReturnsForReal_2

Pimperne1 wrote: »

From someone who was predicting a crash at 2005 prices. :rotfl: No wonder you don't want this thread to go anywhere (can't you just report it as normal and get it removed or locked).

Houses around my way are at late 2004 & early 2005 prices

Sibley

It's all very well keep quoting around my way etc.
Unless all the houses in UK drop in price you cannot speak about a house price crash.

Say somebody wants to buy a house in Kent or Surrey.
Prices may have dropped 50% in Belfast but that won't make a seller in SE knock that off.

At this moment in time around my way prices are high.

A crash means everywhere the same as a rise would.
No point keep cherry picking areas.

I would just like some of the people like Geneer to tell me when this crash is going to happen.

I remember Christmas 2009. When the credit card bills come in.....

Christmas 2010. Black Easter on it's way.

Last years 3.1% drop...It's here congratulations. :rotfl:

Sibley

Line in the sand part 2.

Interest rates.

After all the predictions, graphs and black warnings to home owners.

Are we all happy that interest rates are not going anywhere for a long time?

Bulls got that one right yeah?

Fair to say?

Bears said they would rise. Bulls said they would not.

We were right. No argument about that now is there?

geneer

Pimperne1 wrote: »

From someone who was predicting a crash at 2005 prices. :rotfl: No wonder you don't want this thread to go anywhere (can't you just report it as normal and get it removed or locked).

and the crash started just over a year and a half later. with a side order of economic melt down. not too shabby.

as to the latter part of your diatribe....sorry but what on earth are you going on about.

no doubt something to do with your post flounce flounce over on cc eh.;)

anyway,you appear to think tjhere is some merit in simpleys op. do please feel free to elaborate on those points you consider worthy of support.

doire_2

Sibley wrote: »

On one side the bears are saying house prices will crash up to 70% from the 2007 peak.

Yeap 100% right as usual sibley. All bears think prices will fall 70%. You're spot on

Pimperne1

geneer wrote: »

and the crash started just over a year and a half later. with a side order of economic melt down. not too shabby.

as to the latter part of your diatribe....sorry but what on earth are you going on about.

no doubt something to do with your post flounce flounce over on cc eh.;)

anyway,you appear to think tjhere is some merit in simpleys op. do please feel free to elaborate on those points you consider worthy of support.

I don't count 10% drops as a crash though. A bit of a correction I agree but I think we all expected the froth to be blown off the market at some stage (whether we admitted it or not).