BoE Interest Rate Predictions.

RenovationMan

Generali wrote: »

If inflation quadruples or falls by 12 percentage points there will be some pretty strong policy responses.

Is that likely with the economy as it stands?

IveSeenTheLight

RenovationMan wrote: »

Looks like I'll be needing a new MFW challenge.

No need for a new challange as you would only hit one ofe your milestones in your MFW ultimate goal.

You just need to reset your stretch target goals.

thor

tartanterra wrote: »

Personally, I would not be surprised if the base rate didn't change for another 27 months.
There's a lot more pain to come with the ongoing government cuts, and I really don't see much prospect for future growth in the economy until all the damage created by the last governments reckless spending policies has been cleared up and put to bed.:(

It is growth(or more exactly - increased tax receipts) which is key to getting rid of the debt. This is what screwed Labour last time out. The banks in America got caught with their pants down and as a result everyone lost confidence resulting in a crash in consumer spending which in turn lead to a further loss of confidance. The high spending could have been maintained if we did not have to bail out the banks and deal with their economic consequencies. Sadly they are too big to fail and they know that they can privitise their profits while nationalising their losses while at the same time getting their snouts well and truly in the trough. 'Sir' Fred Goodwin being a prime example.

Generali

RenovationMan wrote: »

Is that likely with the economy as it stands?

Not likely, no. Possible however.

Nobody saw the oil crisis coming in 1973/4 or the tax cuts of the Barber Boom that caused the spike in inflation around 1975 in 1970. The main suppliers of oil are a pretty volatile bunch. Would you bet your mortgage on no more major wars or revolutions in the Middle East in the next five years? I sure as hell wouldn't.

Well actually I would bet your mortgage but you get my point I hope