Debate House Prices


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Confidence returning to the housing market

Pimperne1
Pimperne1 Posts: 2,177 Forumite
in Debate House Prices & the Economy
A third of people think prices will rise in the next twelve months whilst less than a quarter think they will fall:

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/mortgages-and-homes/house-prices/article.html?in_article_id=536533&in_page_id=57#ixzz1OwnnpOqF
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Comments

  • Thrugelmir
    Thrugelmir Posts: 89,546 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper Photogenic
    Reading the article then a different picture emerges.
    On our This is Money poll, we asked readers what they believed would happen to house prices over the course of the next year (April 2011 – April 2012) and the response has been the opposite to the Halifax survey.

    With 8,899 responses, nearly 75% of readers believe that house prices will fall in the next 12 months.

    Of this number, over 31% believe that house prices will crash by more than -10% by April 2012.
  • Pimperne1
    Pimperne1 Posts: 2,177 Forumite
    Thrugelmir wrote: »
    Reading the article then a different picture emerges.

    Yes, I think I can see a small problem with your post though.
  • Graham_Devon
    Graham_Devon Posts: 58,560 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    So 75% of people thinking house prices will fall = confidence in the housing market?

    New one.
  • DervProf
    DervProf Posts: 4,035 Forumite
    Graham_Devon wrote: »
    So 75% of people thinking house prices will fall = confidence in the housing market?

    New one.

    Well, it might make a few potential FTBers feel a little more confident, and maybe a few people who might like to "move up the ladder".
    30 Year Challenge : To be 30 years older. Equity : Don't know, don't care much. Savings : That's asking for ridicule.
  • Pimperne1
    Pimperne1 Posts: 2,177 Forumite
    Graham_Devon wrote: »
    So 75% of people thinking house prices will fall = confidence in the housing market?

    New one.

    Or, from a bullish point of view, the Halifax Housing Marked Confidence Tracker provided at the link says that 33% expect prices to go up, 23% expect them to go down and the remainder provided no opinion. To have two different polls in the same article seems a bit daft, especially as they don't try to explain why the results are so divergent.
  • Graham_Devon
    Graham_Devon Posts: 58,560 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    Wonder how the confidence survey faired in January 2007.
  • Pimperne1
    Pimperne1 Posts: 2,177 Forumite
    edited 11 June 2011 at 8:01PM
    Graham_Devon wrote: »
    Wonder how the confidence survey faired in January 2007.

    Well those that thought that prices would be higher 12 months later would have been right.
  • grizzly1911
    grizzly1911 Posts: 9,965 Forumite
    Depends on sampling too and regional variations. I doubt it is a controlled group so you track the changing attitudes of a given pool.

    Bit like growth and are we in or out of recession. The figures are so fragile and the bulls grab at such tenuous morsels.

    All I know is that I haven't met anyone in along time who thinks, rather than hopes, that things are on the up.

    I know property based AVCs continue to plunge:(
    "If you act like an illiterate man, your learning will never stop... Being uneducated, you have no fear of the future.".....

    "big business is parasitic, like a mosquito, whereas I prefer the lighter touch, like that of a butterfly. "A butterfly can suck honey from the flower without damaging it," "Arunachalam Muruganantham
  • Graham_Devon
    Graham_Devon Posts: 58,560 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    Pimperne1 wrote: »
    Well those that thought that prices would be higher 12 months later would have been right.

    Correct, my mistake. Was supposed to type Jun 007
  • IveSeenTheLight
    IveSeenTheLight Posts: 13,322 Forumite
    Graham_Devon wrote: »
    Correct, my mistake. Was supposed to type Jun 007

    What would have been the opinion in Feb 09?

    There's no point in picking a specific point in history to reflect the outcome you know and want to portray to happen thereafter
    :wall:
    What we've got here is....... failure to communicate.
    Some men you just can't reach.
    :wall:
This discussion has been closed.
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