Wait for until the cuts begin to bite.

Really2

A line we hear a lot on here.

Waiting for the IMF report today I read the following.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/8558924/IMF-report-on-the-UK-economy-live.html

But Goldman Sachs analysts point out in a note released ahead of the IMF verdict: “Contrary to the common perception that the UK fiscal adjustment has only recently begun in earnest, a large correction has now been underway for 1½ years. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) estimates that the cyclically-adjusted primary deficit [basically, the hole in the budget left even when the economy is running at full pelt] fell by 2¼% in 2010/11, equal to the projected tightening this year and more than the tightening planned in subsequent years. Meanwhile, public-sector employment has fallen by 120,000 in the past year, significantly more than the projected reduction of 77,000 per year over the next four years.”

I remember having debates on here not so long ago and people were saying the cuts have not started, Are they sure?
Job losses had not started, are they sure?
Cuts were not front loaded?

Glad my wife works in LG otherwise I might even start believing what some debate on here!:eek:

Graham_Devon

Difference between swathes of job cuts and hiring freezes.

Department my sister works in has lost 9 people. No one's job was cut. But 9 less/fewer jobs have been advertised.

chucky

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Difference between swathes of job cuts and hiring freezes.

Department my sister works in has lost 9 people. No one's job was cut. But 9 less/fewer jobs have been advertised.

surely that means there budget has been cut?

or does that mean that their budget is the same for less people they employ?

Really2

If 9 people leave and the posts are not going to be filled that is 9 posts cut Graham.

You can't spin it as 120,000 posts have not been filled.

No redeployment pool in your sisters employer then? just a thought (as anyone losing a job as the right to be redeployed in LG, it is hard to see LG having a number of posts they cant fill due to hiring freezes when they are making cut's GD)

Pimperne1

Really2 wrote: »

A line we hear a lot on here.

Waiting for the IMF report today I read the following.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/8558924/IMF-report-on-the-UK-economy-live.html


I remember having debates on here not so long ago and people were saying the cuts have not started, Are they sure?
Job losses had not started, are they sure?
Cuts were not front loaded?

Glad my wife works in LG otherwise I might even start believing what some debate on here!:eek:

There's always another trigger just around the corner which is going to cause a massive HPC. Its been going on for seven years on some sites. Its a bit like the lottery, I always dream I am going to win big bucks so I keep on "investing" - we all know that I have no realistic chance of winning.

1984ReturnsForReal_2

A majority of big businesses adjusted their headcounts in 2008-2009 accordingly.

Its called planning.

A few will recruit more as business demands, some will keep the numbers they have, some will not replace leavers & others (including small business) will adapt more on a short term basis.

Now, as we know, cuts mean less cash & less spend so those small businesses who act short term reduce their headcount.

By the way those small businesses far far outweigh the employment in larger industries that you read about in the telegraph.

Graham_Devon

Really2 wrote: »

If 9 people leave and the posts are not going to be filled that is 9 posts cut Graham.

You can't spin it as 120,000 posts have not been filled.

No redeployment pool in your sisters employer then? just a thought (as anyone losing a job as the right to be redeployed in LG, it is hard to see LG having a number of posts they cant fill due to hiring freezes when they are making cut's GD)

You stated:

Job losses had not started, are they sure?

I replied.

Not twisting or spinning anything!!

As an aside. When people talk about the cuts not starting, they are usually in reference to housing on here. No tso much reference to whether some buses have been cut in North Wales. Cuts are happening, but we are normally talking in terms of housing on here. Those cuts have yet to kick in (though wondering if they ever actually will).

Councils know about the cuts they have to make to their budgets, but in general, they have not filtered through to actual cuts as of yet. Our local council was only on the news stating this the other day.

sjaypink

Last couple years at my place all temp contract employees went at the end of their terms, all leavers and hour-downgraders (retirements, maternity etc) were not replaced, and the upper management were restructured (again, not 'lost').

Since April the local management has been re organised & offered early departure.

Last week, all staff, all grades, all departments were offered voluntary redundancy. I think most of the cuts for most gov depts have to be in place by March 2012, so, yeah, I do think the real cuts are only just beginning.

Emy1501

My wifes a teacher. Cuts in budgets have only really taken effect from this April. Also funding for many LEA funding support groups etc have lost funding from April. I know a few who have lost their job due to this.

I get the impression that the cuts in the private sector started sometime ago but for the public sector its only just begun especially in education and support groups for children anyway and of course these were areas which we were told would not really be affected.

lemonjelly

sjaypink wrote: »

Last couple years at my place all temp contract employees went at the end of their terms, all leavers and hour-downgraders (retirements, maternity etc) were not replaced, and the upper management were restructured (again, not 'lost').

Since April the local management has been re organised & offered early departure.

Last week, all staff, all grades, all departments were offered voluntary redundancy. I think most of the cuts for most gov depts have to be in place by March 2012, so, yeah, I do think the real cuts are only just beginning.

Pretty much agree with this.

Our place has opened its voluntary severence scheme again this year.

In addition, we see that EMA (still being paid, & therefore being staffed etc) is being cut from september (except a few special cases).

In addition, colleges get funding (called LSF) to support adult learners. This budget was frozen. However adult learners also had a seperate option of ALG, which has been cut a week ago (which will lead to greater pressure on LSF...)

In addition, I'm seeing that access to education is being hit massively. You will only get help with course fees if you are on JSA or part of ESA. People on tax credits, housing benefits, income support and so on will not get any help. So much for offering educational opportunities to all.

A seperate issue is that I can see all benefit departments (jobcentres, carers allowance etc) being excessively literal with benefit rules, arguing that a person on a 12 hour a week course cannot claim (eg) carers allowance, as they are in f-t education. This despite the fact that Carers allowance legislation explicitly states that a person can be in education for up to 21 hours per week. This is imo a form of stealth cut, and will happen progressively more.

sjaypink

I think what I (and possibly what gd was referring to if I got it right) am trying to say is that the cuts so far (whether publicised redundancys or 'natural wastage') have been from those who could afford to leave for whatever reason, and/or from those higher up and behind the scenes.

Now, neither as far as I can see are going to equate to the local or greater economy feeling any impact. The mortgage will still be paid, they will still go out to dinner occasionally, go on holiday and visit b&q of a weekend.
Neither will the public notice much difference in front line servcie at this stage, as they were promised they would not.

I do think the worst is yet to come as all grades, at all sites are offered out initially, with the compulsary redundancys coming in later this year. I think it is generally percieved that those with the most stressful and therefore probably most publiclly visible jobs, will be the first to jump. This is not good for us as service users, nor the economy as it may well be that Ms Nurse who has to look after 20 patients per shift whereas 3 years ago it was 10, is willing to go without dinner, holidays and b&q to get the hell out.