Interest rates will rise faster and higher than anyone expects

Graham_Devon

While my post caused a few to come out of the woodwork to dispute the absolute numbers....

Does anyone disagree with the point made?

Not going to go through all the points pulling me up. One is just frankly pathetic, and the other, IO mortgages, has been twisted by wotsthat into FTB IO statistics. My point wasn't anything to do with FTB's. There is a rise in people with existing mortgages being switched to IO mortgages.

chucky

DervProf wrote: »

I can't see why you are pulling him up over this.

i didn't think you would.

keep up the good work, you're doing a sterling job.

wotsthat

Graham_Devon wrote: »

While my post caused a few to come out of the woodwork to dispute the absolute numbers....

Does anyone disagree with the point made?

I've disputed your interpretation of the numbers so I don't know if I'm included.

If this is your point..

The big stories, again this winter, unfortunately, are going to be the unfortunate in their homes choosing to forgoe meals, to keep themselves warm. Feel its going to be worse this winter.

I'd suggest a separate thread as it's not linked to the real point of the thread ( static interest rates) as increases in BOE rates now would seem to have little to do with the number of people who will starve in the UK this winter.

Graham_Devon

wotsthat wrote: »

I've disputed your interpretation of the numbers so I don't know if I'm included.

All you've told me is I'm correct, but putting too much significance on the numbers. All I did was state that these things are happening. I'm not sure I even highlighted any significance. Simply stated while overpaying is happening, payment problems are also increasing.

You've then told me there are fewer FTB's are taking IO mortgages. Nothing to do with my point that there are increasing numbers of existing mortgage holders being switched from repayment to IO.

Anyone can dispute interpretating of numbers, if they use a completely different set of circumstances and mortgagees to dispute them.

Think it's time to sign up to HPC. I'll see how I get on there, as it's getting pretty impossible to write any post without it being jumped upon, twisted, and then faux issues being created. Not sure why this is, as my post wasn't attacking anyone, was simply pointing out the extremes from both sides. No doubt I'm now having a breakdown. However, I'm merely bored at the fact I cannot type a post anymore without it being dissected and issues created....especially when the post has to be twisted and changed to create faux issues in the first place.

wotsthat

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Not going to go through all the points pulling me up. One is just frankly pathetic, and the other, IO mortgages, has been twisted by wotsthat into FTB IO statistics. My point wasn't anything to do with FTB's. There is a rise in people with existing mortgages being switched to IO mortgages.

Sorry, missed the edit.

I acknowledged that it's difficult to determine that just how many mortgage holders are moving to IO because of affordability issues vs. those moving to take advantage of interest rates.

The quote I used from the CML

From 2007, there has been a clear shift away from interest-only mortgages, in particular for first-time buyers. Prior to the financial crisis it was typical for around 30% of loans to first-time buyers to be on an interest-only basis. In March 2011, only 4% of first-time buyers took out an interest-only mortgage.

It's pretty obvious what this is saying. There's been a shift away from IO for all mortgages but FTB's in particular. The conclusion I drew was that it's likely that there are somewhat less people on IO vs 2007. I don't think this is an unreasonable conclusion but I'd like to see figures, if they exist, showing the opposite.

I've not attempted to twist the stats at all.

Graham_Devon

wotsthat wrote: »

It's pretty obvious what this is saying. There's been a shift away from IO for all mortgages but FTB's in particular. The conclusion I drew was that it's likely that there are somewhat less people on IO vs 2007. I don't think this is an unreasonable conclusion but I'd like to see figures, if they exist, showing the opposite.

I've not attempted to twist the stats at all.

What has the above got to do with what I said?

Nothing. Your quote is talking about new borrowers. My point was about existing borrowers, in relation to "people are overpaying". Was simply trying to suggest that while people are overpaying, others are struggling.

FTBs, and those taking out new mortgages have nothing to do with lenders switching existing mortgage holders.

Your conclusion isn't unreasonable. Just has absolutely nothing to do with what I said, and you have used your conclusion to suggest I'm looking at the figures wrong. Hence why I said you are twisting to make your point.

bungle4by4

Poshbird wrote: »

Interest rates will rise faster and higher than anyone expects

God i hope so. Bring it on...

wotsthat

Graham_Devon wrote: »

What has the above got to do with what I said?

Nothing. Your quote is talking about new borrowers. My point was about existing borrowers, in relation to "people are overpaying". Was simply trying to suggest that while people are overpaying, others are struggling.

I'm saying that it's reasonable to assume that there are less people on IO than 2007, affordability isn't the only reason to move to IO, the CML figures show that arrears rates are stable and therefore the impact of a rate rise will have less impact than it would in 2007.*

If your point is simply that some existing borrowers are overpaying and some are struggling then yes you are correct. Well done.

* even though more are on variable rates

DervProf

wotsthat wrote: »

I'm saying that it's reasonable to assume that there are less people on IO than 2007,

If so, those people that are on IO are borrowing one hell of a lot of money, as the amount of money outstanding on IO mortgages is said to have increased by around £60billion since '07 *

http://www.moneymarketing.co.uk/mortgages/banks-cornered-over-mortgage-arrears-concerns/1032596.article

* Unless a large amount of people have sswitched from IO to repayment.

Graham_Devon

wotsthat wrote: »

If your point is simply that some existing borrowers are overpaying and some are struggling then yes you are correct. Well done.

* even though more are on variable rates

Well thats a bit of a turnaround to what you were suggesting before.

That is indeed what I was suggesting. That's why I said it.

Hence, you did indeed, take exception to something I never actually stated or implied. Thats the name of the game though. Well done. Played a blinder.