An entire generation locked out of property ownership

Graham_Devon

ukcarper wrote: »

Applying the house price fall etc to rent, total rent would be about £510k.

Yup, and the costs would go up on all cleavers other costs. Maintanance, moving, fees. Everything.

It's an absolute minefield.

System

Considering Grahams OP suggests ~90% HPI in 15 years, 3% per year sounds very conservative. Strange change of tune.

Might I suggest doing the sums again and using pints of milk?

ukcarper

Average yearly wage growth since 2009 has been between 1% to 2.5% it now stands at 2.1%.

ukcarper

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Yup, and the costs would go up on all cleavers other costs. Maintanance, moving, fees. Everything.

It's an absolute minefield.

Graham I've alter the figures in your favour and the renter is still £140k worse off why would maintenance etc alter we haven’t change inflation figures.

chucky

jeeeeesus is this thread still going???

let me put it simply... investing in property is always a gamble, the house always wins...

Cleaver

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Also, if we did have this kind of inflation, your sums would be wrong using that 4% savings income. Would be higher. Unless rates stay below 1.5% for the next 40 years.

I think if we had 3% inflation then 4% after tax is pretty good. That's a gross rate just under 5% for basic tax payers and just over 5.5% for higher rate tax payers.

Shall we just agree to disagree? I think buying a house over any 40 year period will be better finanically than renting any way you look at it.

Graham_Devon

Cleaver wrote: »

I think if we had 3% inflation then 4% after tax is pretty good. That's a gross rate just under 5% for basic tax payers and just over 5.5% for higher rate tax payers.

Shall we just agree to disagree? I think buying a house over any 40 year period will be better finanically than renting any way you look at it.

We can, and probably should.

Only thing I will say is that I said from the start, renting NOW compared to taking on a 40 year mortgage NOW is the issue.

Taking a 40 year mortgage when house prices have fallen another 15% is a different thing altogether, and the sums will have changed.

chucky

Graham_Devon wrote: »

We can, and probably should.

Only thing I will say is that I said from the start, renting NOW compared to taking on a 40 year mortgage NOW is the issue.

Taking a 40 year mortgage when house prices have fallen another 15% is a different thing altogether, and the sums will have changed.

no, no and no. it's like groundhog day trying to explain stuff to Devon.

when house prices are low or are falling, interest rates are always higher or it's harder to get a mortgage. if property fell 15% you wouldn't get a cheap mortgage rate so you would end up paying more due the higher interest rate.

the ticket price of a property isn't what you pay for it.

I guess it will be different this time though...

Graham_Devon

chucky wrote: »

no, no and no. it's like groundhog day trying to explain stuff to Devon.

when house prices are low or are falling, interest rates are always higher or it's harder to get a mortgage. if property fell 15% you wouldn't get a cheap mortgage rate so you would end up paying more due the higher interest rate.

the ticket price of a property isn't what you pay for it.

I guess it will be different this time though...

In this scenario, where we are counting on the person actually having the deposit under all circumstances, your put down doesn't work. As for mortgage rates, we have seen...they are not THAT much more expensive now, compared to the boom. So again, doesn't work.

I really don't fancy a "houses are more expensive when they have had thousands knocked off the price" argument after the last few pages.

chucky

Graham_Devon wrote: »

In this scenario, where we are counting on the person actually having the deposit under all circumstances, your put down doesn't work. As for mortgage rates, we have seen...they are not THAT much more expensive now, compared to the boom. So again, doesn't work.

whooooosh, you miss the point completely (again).

well done.