Britons agree property is overvalued.

shortchanged_2

There is one small thing to consider, BoE base rate of 0.5%.

Lets see what happens when it eventually starts to go up, but seeing as the economy is in the doldrums it doesn't look like going anywhere fast and Mervyn has just had another round of Mewing to build that new extension.

ukcarper

angrypirate wrote: »

I dunno.... Try asking baby boomers who have children currently struggling to get on the housing market.

PS - call me an under achiever again and I'll personally come over and deck you.:D

I must be doing something wrong I’m a babyboomer and all my children are on the housing ladder in fact one is further up it than me.

ukcarper

twadge_face wrote: »

This nails it.

This is why most people don't give a turd.

My sympathies lie with the impoverished FTBs, however. And I find the aggressive self-justifying immoral bulls who have a major vested interest in exploiting those less well-off than themselves somewhat in poor taste.

Nothing wrong with renting, of course, but the sector does need reform. We (the UK) need a model more like Germany, both in accommodation and attitude... it's disgusting how people look down on those in rented.

There shall be riots on this matter one day. Mark my words.

I don’t see anything wrong in renting if that’s what you want to do but as you say it would be better if there was more security etc. But who is going to provided it, there is nothing stopping big players entering the field now and offering better terms but no one is rushing to do it.

Loopgames

Really2 wrote: »

.... there is still something holding prices up.

I think that that something is the interest rates are artificially low.

Really2 wrote: »

Something a lot on here people do not want to admit is true, that prices have it a nutrality point a lot higher than expected, that is mot probably over estimated supply and under estimated demand.




Overlay 1989-1996 and there seems to be far more similarity to that than you think. I think a second leg down looks less and less likely by the day. (may have mis read you but I have us down for exiting bust late 2013,early 2014)

I'm not sure how similar those periods are but there is a lot more prop ups this time round by government interference in the markets. If things were left along the natural laws of supply and demand then technically interest rates should be a lot higher today.

The 'double dip' may happen and only because the first dip was propped by QE and artificial setting of interest rates.

So there are 2 things that I can spot that I think are propping prices:

1) QE
2) Low interest rates

I don't think that the reason is demand although there is still some demand from cash buyers and those with high deposits. I don't know the proportions of these are within the market.

The main reason for the price stability we're seeing and the disruption to the price freefall that would have happened (and what you expected to happen) is due to government intereference. The double dip is really just a continuation of the original problems that started in 2008 which was abrubtly disrupted.

I feel like we're now in the eye of the storm. Something is just not right with the fiasco we witnessed in 2008 - it's not reflected in the wider economy. I believe if they just let it get to rebalance itself then we can just get on with things as it is it's going to be worse than before they intereferred with things.

LisbonLaura

Batchy wrote: »

demand ...

and supply

we have pent up demand... those who want it so bad, but cannot make it happen.

over time... they will trickle in

It will stop dramatic falls...

We have pent-up supply too. Odd how nearly all have forgotten how the lenders are holding it back trying to avoid an early 90s repeat. Too much at stake this time, so the game is rigged.

Really2

Loopgames wrote: »

I think that that something is the interest rates are artificially low.




I'm not sure how similar those periods are but there is a lot more prop ups this time round by government interference in the markets. If things were left along the natural laws of supply and demand then technically interest rates should be a lot higher today.

The 'double dip' may happen and only because the first dip was propped by QE and artificial setting of interest rates.

So there are 2 things that I can spot that I think are propping prices:

1) QE
2) Low interest rates

I don't think that the reason is demand although there is still some demand from cash buyers and those with high deposits. I don't know the proportions of these are within the market.

The main reason for the price stability we're seeing and the disruption to the price freefall that would have happened (and what you expected to happen) is due to government intereference. The double dip is really just a continuation of the original problems that started in 2008 which was abrubtly disrupted.

I feel like we're now in the eye of the storm. Something is just not right with the fiasco we witnessed in 2008 - it's not reflected in the wider economy. I believe if they just let it get to rebalance itself then we can just get on with things as it is it's going to be worse than before they intereferred with things.

I can't see how rates are artificially low, they are what they are and very similar to almost every other western economy.

Also the rates are not mirrored by mortgage rates so I do not see how they are a prop to house prices.

Only a few got the +0.49 trackers etc. Most are paying not far of the same when the base rate was 5.5% especially those that have fixed over the last 2-3 years.

So base rate may have stopped some defaults but they are not the reason why the base rate is where it is Perhaps a symptom, not a cause.

It would have to be something fairly major now to cause a next leg down IMHO.

LisbonLaura

Really2 wrote: »

It would have to be something fairly major now to cause a next leg down IMHO.

Isn't it amazing how shifting the correction to the currency rather than the property price fools the vast majority?

It's also thieving from savers in Sterling, but Merv. has apologised for that so it's OK.

Really2

LisbonLaura wrote: »

We have pent-up supply too. Odd how nearly all have forgotten how the lenders are holding it back trying to avoid an early 90s repeat. Too much at stake this time, so the game is rigged.

Yes Lenders have rigged it so they get paid interest and the loan paid back in full.
Instead of reclaiming and selling at a loss in a fire sale.

It is a great board that moans about banks getting bailed out but in the same breath wants them to reposes and fire sale properties.
I would of thought the banks getting paid back as much as possible was in the interest of all?

Really2

LisbonLaura wrote: »

Isn't it amazing how shifting the correction to the currency rather than the property price fools the vast majority?

It's also thieving from savers in Sterling, but Merv. has apologised for that so it's OK.

Lowering the value of a currency is fairly standard practice in a recession.

I would have thought being in Lisbon you would appriciate that Laura? (Or anyone in Ireland or Greece?)

Also it is fairly normal in busts that savings in cash devalue.

LisbonLaura

Really2 wrote: »

Yes Lenders have rigged it so they get paid interest and the loan paid back in full.
Instead of reclaiming and selling at a loss in a fire sale.

It is a great board that moans about banks getting bailed out but in the same breath wants them to reposes and fire sale properties.
I would of thought the banks getting paid back as much as possible was in the interest of all?

Ahh, the simplistic view, which neatly avoids a few moral hazards.