One Million FTB-s prevented from buying

Cleaver

iandury wrote: »

What a patronising attitude you have!!

That was on purpose, and it was only with Jimmy. We've had this debate before and I thought he went away with some understanding, but I'm now not sure that he did. So my patronising tone was slightly for humour value.

iandury wrote: »

I personally take whatever i hear in the media and by VI's with a pinch of salt, and anything by you i might add.

Can you explain to me what it is about the statistical reports released by Nationwide that you feel the need to 'take with a pinch of salt'? What I mean is, which part of their methodology or presentation of data do you feel is flawed?

iandury wrote: »

Anacdotal evidence is worth listening to at the moment(so keep it up jimmy), and where his argument and anacdotal evidence is stronger than your insulting reply is that in a very bad credit crunch(and that is what this is) you would have to be a complete mug/numpty to pay over the odds for a property right now, so jimmy is more likely to be right than you in this argument, IMO.

This 'debate' between Jimmy and myself has nothing to do with when the right time is to buy a house, so stop turning it in to that. I've said lots of times on here before that for some people this might be a great time to buy, for others it may be an awful time to buy. For example, I live in the NW and I don't see many houses selling and, like Jimmy, I see reductions at my local EAs. If I were a FTBer with a small deposit in the NW I would probably be waiting for further falls to buy.

So of course anecdotal evidence is worth listening to. In fact, it's just an interesting / useful as national house price statistics. But shall we get back to what initially started off this debate? It was Jimmy saying:

Jimmy_31 wrote: »

But they are heading in the direction of a tenner which is very good news for FTBs who want to buy a home.

Which clearly isn't true when looked at on a national basis (or even a local basis for that matter.

He's then also gone on to say:

Jimmy_31 wrote: »

i get every bit of information i need from the EAs window(i know this may be affected by the national average price), its my choice not to take notice of the data released by banks or whoever.

Which, I think, shows that he's a bit confused. I am not for one minute disputing that asking prices in Jimmy's local Estate Agents aren't falling, and nor that I dispute that the 5 or 6 streets that Jimmy is looking at aren't seeing house price falls. But I'm not really sure that Jimmy gets that this is one piece of information and the national house price statistics are another piece of information. Nor do I think that he understand that house prices can be rising / falling and this has nothing to do with the asking prices in the 5 or 6 streets he's looking at. Both say different things, both are relevant and both tell you something. I would obviously argue that national data in the form of Nationwide, Halifax, Rightmove, Land Registry tells you more useful information about the housing market about the six streets and the one EA Jimmy has his beady eye on, but then what do I know?

Cleaver

Jimmy_31 wrote: »

i get every bit of information i need from the EAs window

Spoken like a true economist.

Jimmy_31 wrote: »

So in conclusion cleaver, yes, i dont really take note of what the national average house price is, yes , i know how they come up with the figures for the national average and yes i am aware that this data exists, the only bit i dont understand is why you keep pulling me up when i say i wont be consulting the national average price when i buy a house.

But you're not just saying this, are you? Earlier in this thread you made a statement that house prices are dropping towards a tenner, which I assumed you meant that house prices were generally dropping. So I showed some statistics and gave another opinion that we're in stagnation.

You're now saying that you don't ever look at national prices and only take notice of 5 streets. So how on earth would you know, or have an opinion, on the direction of houses prices in this country?

As I've said before, I'm more than happy with you not using national house price stats to base your house buying decision on. And why would you? You don't base whether you're buying a house on what the Nationwide say about the national average house price. What you would use national house price statistics for is making general, overview statements about national house prices. Which is what I assumed you were doing when you said earlier that house prices were dropping to a tenner? Or did you mean that the house prices in the six streets you watch are dropping to a tenner?

Jimmy_31 wrote: »

Also are you a school teacher, policeman, or something like that, you know somebody who has a bit of power given to them in their jobs.

No.

Cleaver

Actually, it might just be easier to ask Jimmy a question.

Jimmy: on a national basis do you think that house prices are rising, falling or staying the same? What do you base your answer on?

Not trying to catch you out or anything like that, but would be just interesting to hear your opinion. Be great if you could give your answer without talking about you buying a house.

wymondham

THE_SLUMDOG_GHUOLS wrote: »

It's high time the government were taken to task and the banks forced to open their vaults. These bankers are simply creating a generational social-geographic catastrophe by denying the young their right to buy. Maggie got it right in the 80's so it's time Camerone stepped up to the mark.

nobody has a RIGHT to buy!

you buy if you can afford it and conditions suit you

Jimmy_31

Cleaver wrote: »

Spoken like a true economist.



But you're not just saying this, are you? Earlier in this thread you made a statement that house prices are dropping towards a tenner, which I assumed you meant that house prices were generally dropping. So I showed some statistics and gave another opinion that we're in stagnation.

You're now saying that you don't ever look at national prices and only take notice of 5 streets. So how on earth would you know, or have an opinion, on the direction of houses prices in this country?

As I've said before, I'm more than happy with you not using national house price stats to base your house buying decision on. And why would you? You don't base whether you're buying a house on what the Nationwide say about the national average house price. What you would use national house price statistics for is making general, overview statements about national house prices. Which is what I assumed you were doing when you said earlier that house prices were dropping to a tenner? Or did you mean that the house prices in the six streets you watch are dropping to a tenner?



No.

Right lets get things cleared up then.


(Yes i see prices in my area heading in the direction of a tenner ie lower than they are now) i added the lower than they are now bit in my later post because i thought here we go somebody will now try and say that i think houses are going to end up costing a tenner.

Yes this is all based on MY AREA mainly because i will be buying a house in MY AREA.

I will put it as simply as i can.

I have chosen 5 or 6 streets that i would be happy to live in.

Houses in these streets are dropping in value.

I dont think they will drop to a tenner.

I couldnt give a sh*t about banks releasing data to do with the average price of a house in britain.

When the houses i am looking at drop to a price i am willing to pay then i will buy one.

When i do buy my house the decision will be based on the price dropping to a level im willing to pay (value for money), all the data everybody releases was and still is doing whatever it does its just a fact that i havent consulted this data on the day i put my offer in on a house.

I also think and hope for the sake of other people that house prices will drop throughout the country at some point just like some of the other areas in britain that are dropping.

you ask how do i get my opinion of were house prices are currently at or were they might end up, thats quite simple, i speak to people i work with or family,friends,customers and ask them their opinions as i prefer anecdotal information over a chart released by a bank. (lately its not just me bringing up the housing market in conversation)

Iandury said he doesnt really trust the data released by the banks and i think this is what winds you up because i posted the same thing a while back and you couldnt accept my answer, which was basically, the data is compiled by the banks and i dont trust banks.

Some people dont trust banks is that really hard to understand.

You seem to think that i reckon im some kind of economist, ive said before i am not a super duper economist im just a fella who works on a building site who chose not to buy a house because the prices were ridiculous and now after keeping an eye on the EAs window i can see that prices have dropped and are still dropping so seeing as ive saved up a decent deposit ill be checking rightmove on a daily basis to see if one of the houses i want to buy has dropped in price to a level im willing to pay.

Jimmy_31

Cleaver wrote: »

Actually, it might just be easier to ask Jimmy a question.

Jimmy: on a national basis do you think that house prices are rising, falling or staying the same? What do you base your answer on?

Not trying to catch you out or anything like that, but would be just interesting to hear your opinion. Be great if you could give your answer without talking about you buying a house.

Yeah you arent trying to catch me out:rotfl:

Fair enough i dont really care when i get something wrong.

I think that house prices will fall throughout britain (maybe not london) due to job losses, costs rising, and also if the media start telling everybody that houses are starting to tank then houses probably will tank (opposite effect seen during the bubble) just the usual things really. Basically just look at what caused the boom and change the so called positives to negatives.

Like ive said before im no economist, but i do manage to get by on what few brain cells i have got.

so there you go thats my answer and thats without ME talking about MY situation and what house I am going to buy IN MY AREA (you know the stuff that actually matters)

Cleaver

Jimmy_31 wrote: »

Iandury said he doesnt really trust the data released by the banks and i think this is what winds you up because i posted the same thing a while back and you couldnt accept my answer, which was basically, the data is compiled by the banks and i dont trust banks.

Some people dont trust banks is that really hard to understand.

Can you name me a bank that regulalry releases house price data? I'm not aware of any. The land registry releases data, as do a couple of building societies, along with some other financial think tanks and companies such as Rightmove.

So what does not trusting banks have to do with the statistics we discuss on here?

Cleaver

Jimmy_31 wrote: »

Yeah you arent trying to catch me out:rotfl:

Fair enough i dont really care when i get something wrong.

No, I'm not. And you can't get this 'right' or 'wrong', your opinion is your opinion. I was just interested in what you base it on if you don't take any notice of statistical reports.

Jimmy_31 wrote: »

I think that house prices will fall throughout britain (maybe not london) due to job losses, costs rising, and also if the media start telling everybody that houses are starting to tank then houses probably will tank (opposite effect seen during the bubble) just the usual things really. Basically just look at what caused the boom and change the so called positives to negatives.

Fair enough. I've got to be honest, I don't really know what 'look at the boom and change the so called positives to negatives' really means, but there we go. Thanks for giving me your opinion.

My opinion is above, and I base it on gut feeling and the stats and news that comes out about the housing market. On a national perspective I think we'll see a period like we did between 1991 and about 1996 where we had five years of random positive and negative months and nominal house prices not really going anywhere. Could quite easily be up to ten years in my opinion. Wages and inflation will slowly make houses look more and more affordable as time goes on.

How much do you see house prices falling by percentage by this time next year, this time in two years and this time in three years? As I say, I think they will be +/-5% of what they are now, so pretty much stagnation.

Jimmy_31

Cleaver wrote: »

Can you name me a bank that regulalry releases house price data? I'm not aware of any. The land registry releases data, as do a couple of building societies, along with some other financial think tanks and companies such as Rightmove.

So what does not trusting banks have to do with the statistics we discuss on here?

Awwww sh*t i said bank when i should have said building society or rightmove or think tank, what a tool i really am.

If you dont trust a bank, building society, or whatever then you are hardly likely to trust the numbers they keep pumping out.

I give up now, ive told you what i base my house buying decision on and for some reason in your mind its the wrong way of doing things, you think i am stupid to do it my way and you know exactly the point im trying to make but you just keep banging on about it.

You think prices will stay the same and i think they will drop.

I will stick to my way of buying a house and you stick to yours.

Cleaver

Jimmy_31 wrote: »

Awwww sh*t i said bank when i should have said building society or rightmove or think tank, what a tool i really am.

If you dont trust a bank, building society, or whatever then you are hardly likely to trust the numbers they keep pumping out.

I wasn't trying to catch you out here. Banks and building societies are quite different beasts, aren't they? I'm a bit like you, I don't really trust banks that much. But I have a bit more time for building societies because of the different way in which they operate. You presumably see them in the same light?

Jimmy_31 wrote: »

I give up now, ive told you what i base my house buying decision on and for some reason in your mind its the wrong way of doing things, you think i am stupid to do it my way and you know exactly the point im trying to make but you just keep banging on about it.

Apologies if I've confused you, but your method of keeping your eye on the prices of houses in your area is exactly the right way of going about buying a house. As I said before, why would you base buying a house on what Nationwide release? You buy a house base on your personal financial circumstances and the local area you're looking it. Which it sounds like you're doing.

Where I take issue is when you say 'house prices are falling'. And they might be in the five streets you're looking at. But nationally, it's very debatable to say that they are falling, as none of the statistical reports clearly show that they are. That's where I take issue with you.