'Is AV really so complex? Or is it just confusion marketing?' blog discussion

JimmyTheWig

dtsazza wrote: »

But there's an argument that tempers this somewhat, derived from Would AV have changed history/

Lib Dem voters have historically tended to favour the overall victor (i.e. the party that won the most seats).

That's an interesting link. Shame it hasn't got results for the 2010 election.
But I think that your logic (not sure if the same logic is applied by the BBC in that link or not) is slightly flawed.
I suspect that the second preferences of LibDem voters would be related to the proportions of those in their constituency that voted Conservative or Labour. E.g. in Richmond, Yorkshire LibDem second preferences would mainly go to the Tories while in East Ham LibDem second preferences would mainly go to Labour.

On average this would, of course, give more second preferences to the party who won the election, but wouldn't win them any more seats.

mau408

For some originality and everyday context - has anyone thought of trying to apply AV to football tables? It then makes AV look like a bit of a joke.

Half of football matches mightn't be worth playing.

JimmyTheWig

mau408 wrote: »

For some originality and everyday context - has anyone thought of trying to apply AV to football tables? It then makes AV look like a bit of a joke.

Half of football matches mightn't be worth playing.

Not quite sure what you mean.
Do you mean that the bottom placed team comes last. Then the rest of the table is recalculated based only on the results between the remaining 23 teams. Then the bottom of those teams comes second last and the remaining 22 teams are placed according to results between _them_, etc?
Not unlike what happens when teams are equal on points in World Cup groups.

I quite like that plan. Means Barnet wouldn't be in the relegation zone, which suits me!

Though it's not really AV, is it. I mean no second preferences come in to play.

So, what do you mean, mau408?

kermitfrog

He probably means that some football teams aren't worth watching or supporting and would be better off dead.

Amba_Gambla

kermitfrog wrote: »

He probably means that some football teams aren't worth watching or supporting and would be better off dead.

Like some politicians I know....

mau408

JimmyTheWig wrote: »

Not quite sure what you mean.
Do you mean that the bottom placed team comes last. Then the rest of the table is recalculated based only on the results between the remaining 23 teams. Then the bottom of those teams comes second last and the remaining 22 teams are placed according to results between _them_, etc?
Not unlike what happens when teams are equal on points in World Cup groups.

I quite like that plan. Means Barnet wouldn't be in the relegation zone, which suits me!

Though it's not really AV, is it. I mean no second preferences come in to play.

So, what do you mean, mau408?

Exactly what I mean. Here's the example:

If AV Decided Football Matches
Round 1
Each team plays each other
Germany 1 1 Austria
England 2 0 Scotland
Scotland 0 0 Germany
Austria 0 2 England
Germany 3 0 England
Austria 0 0 Scotland
w d l f a pts
England 2 0 1 4 3 6
Germany 1 2 0 4 1 5
Austria 0 2 1 1 3 2
Scotland 0 2 1 0 2 2
England do best over the whole campaign and win under first past the post.
Scotland finish bottom and are eliminated.

AV Round 2
Scotland's Results are deleted
Germany 1 1 Austria
England 2 0 Scotland
Scotland 0 0 Germany
Austria 0 2 England
Germany 3 0 England
Austria 0 0 Scotland
w d l f a pts
Germany 1 1 0 4 1 4
England 1 0 1 2 3 3
Austria 0 1 1 1 3 1
Scotland
Germany Have Moved to first place under AV
Austria Finish bottom and are eliminated

If AV Decided Football Matches
AV Round 3
Austria's Results are deleted
Germany 1 1 Austria
England 2 0 Scotland
Scotland 0 0 Germany
Austria 0 2 England
Germany 3 0 England
Austria 0 0 Scotland
w d l f a pts
Germany 1 0 0 3 0 3
England 0 0 1 0 3 0
Austria
Scotland

Germany are the AV Winners
5/6 Games did not matter in the end

I like it how you assume I'm of the male variety kermitfrog!
But laughed alot at amba_gamba although it seems a little harsh!

My personal opinion is that some people are voting AV because people are calling them chicken for not wanting change. However I look at all sorts of sports tables and they are not really decided in this sort of way. I don't understand why a system such as political representation should be any different.

JimmyTheWig

Yes, that's what I thought you meant. That's what I was trying to describe in my post.

Not really AV, though, is it.
And, like I said, it's pretty much how they decide things in the World Cup groups when teams finish on the same number of points.

mau408

JimmyTheWig wrote: »

Not really AV, though, is it.

Why is it not like AV? Germany were second preference and topped the table on second round of AV in the football example.
I guess Accrington Stanley secured their position in the playoffs against Barnet.

JimmyTheWig

mau408 wrote: »

Why is it not like AV? Germany were second preference and topped the table on second round of AV in the football example.

I take your point.
Yes, Germany were second preference to Scotland for half the points on offer in the Scotland/Germany match. In effect they get these extra points (by way of other teams losing points) when Scotland are eliminated.

I think it's an interesting way to look at the table. I might try one when the season's finished to see how different it looks.
(Martin would probably like it, too - see http://blog.moneysavingexpert.com/2009/10/19/the-premier-league-table-redesigned-making-mid-season-tables-more-effective/, though he never mentions this approach.)


In some ways it is totally fair. Germany beat England, so why should England end up top instead of Germany.
It isn't, really, deciding the winner based on one game. You have to do well in the other games to be up there in the running in the first place.

kermitfrog

It looks like it's going to be an overwhelming thumbs-down from the electorate for AV.

I suppose the 'Yes' campaign will say that people didn't understand how simple the system is.

Stupid people - not understanding something so simple!

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