Standard Life Endowment conundrum

gnat9gnats

I am one of the unfortunates who bought a Standard Life low cost endowment in 1987. On a target of £78k, my "investment" will fall spectacularly short by £30k. I have been fortunate to have paid off my mortgage 4 years ago and rightly or wrongly I have kept paying the annual premiums totalling £1272 and the policy matures in October this year. I'm also told that I'm unlikely to qualify for the MEP as investment returns after tax since 2000 have not reached 6%

Today I received my annual statement (as at 1/2/11) and as ever, I don't understand all its telling me. It shows the following:

Minimum paid at maturity £47831
Current value (at 1/2/11) £50818
Bounus added in last 12 months £142
Final bonus £4351 (LY it was £2190)

So my question is whether there is a risk that the final bonus amount will be lower than it is as at 1/2/11 - I don't know how it is calculated, if the Stock market takes a dive could that have a significant impact and so to mediate the risk is there any sense in surrendering now and saving the premiuns? Would making it paid up be worth saving the £600+ premiums still to be paid this year?

Advice would be welcome

dunstonh

The only bit at risk in the event of a market crash is the final bonus.

gnat9gnats

I did understand that minimum amount payable was guaranteed, so the question was about the final bonus, is the amount evaluated every day - the figure of £4351 was at 1/2/11, so over what period of investment returns is the final bonus going to be impacted? I have 7 months to run. If I add the premiums still to pay to the cash value now and compare that to the maturity minimum amount plus the bonus value as 1/2/11, the difference is around £750. If the bonus could fall by more than that amount over the next 7 months (and the impact of a soaring oil prices on the markets concerns me enormously) I am better of cashing in now?