Rightmove Feb - Asking prices surge 3.1% as sellers demand higher prices

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

‘Mr Average’ will be left out in the cold in the buying and selling game.”

Shipside added: “The mass market is unlikely to recover to former volumes without the return of healthier access to credit, so continuing falls in the percentage of owner-occupiers and a consequent growth of the rented sector is the realistic prospect.”

http://www.estateagenttoday.co.uk/news_features/Housing-market-on-brink-of-double-dip-warning#comments

myhouse_2

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

They're certainly bearish about the prospects for young people buying houses, noting that BTL lending is expanding as the banks view it more favorably than FTB lending, and absent an increase in FTB lending, the young of today are doomed to a generation of renting as professional landlords hoover up the limited stock available.

As for prices, they note the first 6 weeks of 2011 is virtually a mirror of the first 6 weeks of 2010, and they expect little change in the market this year, so not really that bearish, although not bullish either.

They also note the stock per agent has decreased for 6 months in a row, whilst buyer interest is very high, and that the big limiting factor for the majority of people, whether FTB's or movers, is still the ongoing mortgage rationing..... Which we all knew anyway.

Reading the report from Rightmove, there seem to be 2 arguments going on. Firstly an admission that current asking prices have no basis in market reality. Secondly that that is the way it is going to stay for a while.
For me, although Rightmove are accurately commenting on what they see now, they are not taking into consideration that the market cannot exist in this state indefinitely. Since buyers will not have access to funds at bubble levels for many years, it will have to be sellers that move on price.
Rightmove are perhaps right not to speculate on this, but they must know it's going to happen even if they won't comment on it in advance.
It's worth noting that vendors who refuse to sell do not set market prices. The vendors who actually sell (having taken a hit) are the ones who set prices.

Coeus

I don't suppose a wait and see attitude is appropriate?

FTB personally in favour of house price falls with own predictions for house prices over 2011.

Do enjoy these articles for fact gathering and what have you - but none of you can really tell me you are certain of a movement one way or the other? Seems like a giant waste of energy to me given the underlying asset in question and macro-economic factors driving them.

Especially all the 'Final Score' and 'Beatings' talk. Almost sounds as you are speaking in absolutes and the year isn't even over!

Time will tell, sooner or later, time will tell...

myhouse_2

Coeus wrote: »

I don't suppose a wait and see attitude is appropriate?

FTB personally in favour of house price falls with own predictions for house prices over 2011.

Do enjoy these articles for fact gathering and what have you - but none of you can really tell me you are certain of a movement one way or the other? Seems like a giant waste of energy to me given the underlying asset in question and macro-economic factors driving them.

Especially all the 'Final Score' and 'Beatings' talk. Almost sounds as you are speaking in absolutes and the year isn't even over!

Time will tell, sooner or later, time will tell...

Indeed. Time will tell. But the fact that the excessive loans have dried up means that sooner or later prices will fall.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

myhouse wrote: »

Indeed. Time will tell. But the fact that the excessive loans have dried up means that sooner or later prices will fall.

Not at all.

As we've seen, when prices fall, supply falls also.

And as the Rightmove report confirms, supply has now fallen for 6 months in a row.

The most likely result is that we continue bumping along the bottom at a reduced volume of sales and current prices until lending improves.

doire_2

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

‘Mr Average’ will be left out in the cold in the buying and selling game.”

Shipside added: “The mass market is unlikely to recover to former volumes without the return of healthier access to credit, so continuing falls in the percentage of owner-occupiers and a consequent growth of the rented sector is the realistic prospect.”




http://www.estateagenttoday.co.uk/news_features/Housing-market-on-brink-of-double-dip-warning#comments

Better get used to it. Banks aren't going to lend silly money. The days of liar loans, self cert and 100% mortgages are long gone

Generali

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Not at all.

As we've seen, when prices fall, supply falls also.

And as the Rightmove report confirms, supply has now fallen for 6 months in a row.

The most likely result is that we continue bumping along the bottom at a reduced volume of sales and current prices until lending improves.

...or until there is a mass of forced sales. The market can't remain as it is forever. One way or the other, market conditions will change.

If nothing else, eventually everyone that currently owns a house will be dead and so the house will go as a probate sale. Clearly that is a process that would take quite a long time and other events are likely to happen first!

Thrugelmir

Generali wrote: »

...or until there is a mass of forced sales. The market can't remain as it is forever. One way or the other, market conditions will change.

If nothing else, eventually everyone that currently owns a house will be dead and so the house will go as a probate sale. Clearly that is a process that would take quite a long time and other events are likely to happen first!

Or divorces, or is made redundant, or emigrates or downsizes........

At a point confidence in the housing market must fall. Then prices will drop a few steps quite rapidly. As people attempt to cash in.

I suspect there's too many who haven't any experience of the real world other than the boom economic years.

AD9898_2

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Not at all.

As we've seen, when prices fall, supply falls also.

And as the Rightmove report confirms, supply has now fallen for 6 months in a row.

The most likely result is that we continue bumping along the bottom at a reduced volume of sales and current prices until lending improves.

As has already been said, ridiculous. Is that it Hamish, is that all you hang your tenuous arguments on ?

I thought you had more. The huge amount that has been done to stop prices falling has only suceeded in paralysing the housing market.

As has been pointed out that paralysis can not continue indefinitely. What's worse is it's not in a healthy state, able to absorb policy changes etc, it's hanging by a thread and everyone can see it, even VIs, they just won't admit it.

the_flying_pig

AD9898 wrote: »

As has already been said, ridiculous. Is that it Hamish, is that all you hang your tenuous arguments on ?...

in hamish's defence his theory is so mindless & speculative that it's almost impossible to counter it without adopting a very similar approach oneself - making it quire hard to respond.