House prices 'to fall by 20%'

Graham_Devon

Joeskeppi wrote: »

How is that fact relevant? Stop taking everything so literally, it makes you look special.

You bought it up

Don't cry when it's responded to, and then try to carry out yet more internet put downs.

System

Graham_Devon wrote: »

You bought it up

Don't cry when it's responded to, and then try to carry out yet more internet put downs.

It seems in your little head, that everyone is either wrong or right, with no scale of accuracy to distinguish between them.

Sorry for the repetition but your tedious backtracking is too much on a Sunday.

AD9898_2

There is one person on this forum who normally replies with one line supposed 'put downs' (although not everytime), they offer no point, no argument or no reasoning. Their posts almost exclusively are irrelevant apart from what they deem to be funny, although rarely do their 'funny' posts get more than one 'thanks'.

One wonders why they bother.

System

AD9898 wrote: »

There is one person on this forum who normally replies with one line supposed 'put downs' (although not everytime), they offer no point, no argument or no reasoning. Their posts almost exclusively are irrelevant apart from what they deem to be funny, although rarely do their 'funny' posts get more than one 'thanks'.

One wonders why they bother.

Don't be shy just quote me.

Do you think you contribute a great deal? Whatever little I contribute Ad, it's considerably more than personal attacks at Hamish and the same cut and paste about oil/IRs.

This particular topic that you've crashed is entirely relevant to the board, I know Graham is one of your favourites but CE's predictions are the least reliable. Not, as Graham seems to think, as equally unreliable as anyone who has ever not been 100% correct.

I really think you should stop being a massive hypocrite, your enormous bile filled rant you just spouted at Hamish in another thread for reasons that could easily apply to numerous of your "bear chums" makes you look pathetic, just like the post in this thread, which again could apply to many.

planemad

brit1234 wrote: »

You miss two big issues here.

1, The money for the 2007 peak is gone, the banks don't have the cash to lend to that level. 100-125% mortgages are gone, people now need big deposits. Self cert/liar loans which made 40% of the peak market are pretty much gone and remaining bits being clamped down on with increasing amounts of the dodgy brokers and surveyors receiving criminal prosecutions.

Buyers can't get the funds to match the prices. You may say sellers will not sell but through divorce death, increased children and repossession there will be says at a lower level. This will reduce land registry prices making it harder for those holding off selling to get re mortgages especially as interest rates go up. Infact rising interest rates will be a significant reason for people be forced to sell.

2, There is no shortage of property in the UK for sale, this is compounded by the lack of people being able to buy. The UK property bubble like USA and Australia was formed by lose finance not shortage of land, the other two were short of land are they. We have also large landbanks which we can build on, don't believe me then look at the end of year reports of the likes of Barratts or Permission.

Prices are falling back to normal levels and there is nothing left to stop it now.

OK - I will PM in you 12 months to confirm this drop.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

AD9898 wrote: »

There is one person on this forum who normally replies with one line supposed 'put downs' (although not everytime), they offer no point, no argument or no reasoning. .

Wait a minute......

You've just said that anyone who posts long detailed arguments with reasoning is "desperate" and "paranoid".

Now anyone who posts short one liners is guilty of "smug put downs".

I do wish you'd make up your mind old boy..... What exactly is the official AD approved post length?

Or is it just that anyone who doesn't subscribe to the doomer world view will be guilty of something....

Graham_Devon

AD9898 wrote: »

There is one person on this forum who normally replies with one line supposed 'put downs' (although not everytime), they offer no point, no argument or no reasoning. Their posts almost exclusively are irrelevant apart from what they deem to be funny, although rarely do their 'funny' posts get more than one 'thanks'.

One wonders why they bother.

He did have an opinion once. I was so shocked, I even made the point of going out of my way to congratulate him

worldtraveller

The Government (taxpayer) subsidised smoke & mirrors have largely gone now. The magician has had to go and try to find a new job in the private sector, but they don't seem able to find any white rabbits. The real world is the new world. The true fall can now take place, as had been expected for the past few years.

T............I..............M...............B...............E.................R!

System

I'm trying to make a point now Graham but you keep swerving it.

I also just noticed this:
"although rarely do their 'funny' posts get more than one 'thanks'."

Send rewired my way ad, then maybe I can get as many as you.

Embarassing.

geneer

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

The evidence says that Capital Economics have consistently been as wrong as it's possible to get.

BBC December 2002 - Capital Economics warned that the UK property market was severely overvalued, and that prices could fall by up to 30% over the next few years.

BBC October 2003 - House prices are set to fall by 20% in the next 18 months, a leading economics firm predicts. - Capital Economics argues that central banks in both the US and UK have fuelled the housing bubble by keeping interest rates deliberately low, and house prices are now at "dangerously high levels." It predicts that average house prices will fall from £135,000 in 2004 to below £110,000 in 2007, before beginning a more gradual recovery.

BBC September 2004 - Capital Economics is not predicting a sudden drop in prices, but a slow 20% grind lower over the next 2-3 years.

BBC May 2005 - Economic forecast group Capital Economics, which has predicted that house prices could fall, reiterated that the market had reached an "impasse", with buyers and sellers unable to agree on prices. "We expect the pace of the slowdown to pick up as the year progresses, in line with more gloomy reports from surveyors and housebuilders," Capital Economics said.

Independant Nov 2006 - Capital Economics Giving up on House Price Crash - Ed Stansfield, property economist at Capital Economics, said: "I cannot see 2006/2007 being the time we look back on and say 'yes, that was the start of the housing market crash'."

BBC April 2007 - Capital Economics Turns Bullish - Capital Economics, which in 2003 famously predicted that the UK was headed for house price falls of up to 20%, broadly agrees with Mr Boulger's upbeat analysis. "It gets to a stage when you can't keep saying a crash will happen while prices keep on rising," Ed Stansfield, analyst at Capital Economics, admits.

Gaurdian November 2007 - So, what are the experts saying about 2008? The bleakest assessment (if you are a homeowner, that is) comes from Capital Economics, which says it expects house prices across the country to fall by 3% during both 2008 and 2009.

(3% ? Is that all ? After years of forecasting 20 to 30% drops now Capital Economics is down to a absymally poor forecast of 3% per year for 2008 and 2009, AFTER house prices had already peaked and fallen ! )

Telegraph- November 2008 - "This housing market correction has already overtaken the 1990s crash and, with the economic slump deepening, it is set to get worse. Interest rate cuts will not be enough to stop the correction, nor slow the pace of house price declines. We expect house prices to fall a further 20pc in 2009," said Seema Shah, property economist at Capital Economics.

(and as we now know, prices rose in 2009 to 2010 by a whopping 10% from spring 09 onwards)

Capital Economics are without a doubt the WORST forecasters in UK housing history.

So if they are predicting a 20% fall, it's safe to say prices will be rising.

Gosh. Imagine predicting a housing bubble will burst before it actually does. What are they like.

In Bullland, Predictions should of course come after the fact.

Like for example the sage prophecys stating "gubbument woodnt let it 'appin".

Which of course is a clear reference to the emergency measure required in the wake of the global finanical meltdown they utterly failed to see coming.

Obviously. :rotfl: