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What will Mervyns excuse be this time?

ILW
ILW Posts: 18,333 Forumite
in Debate House Prices & the Economy
Looks likely that inflation will be over 4% when figures come out later.

Wonder what the excuse will be this time?
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Comments

  • purch
    purch Posts: 9,865 Forumite
    Looks likely that inflation will be over 4% when figures come out later

    Er, no.

    They came out 20 minutes ago.

    Try to keep up with the News.

    It helps when you are trying to be all hysterical :eek:
    'In nature, there are neither rewards nor punishments - there are Consequences.'
  • lemonjelly
    lemonjelly Posts: 8,014 Forumite
    1,000 Posts Combo Breaker Mortgage-free Glee!
    ILW wrote: »
    Wonder what the excuse will be this time?

    Probably that oil, commodities & food prices are the drivers, & an IR rise won't limit their impact on inflation.

    Same as last time.

    And the time before...
    It's getting harder & harder to keep the government in the manner to which they have become accustomed.
  • ILW
    ILW Posts: 18,333 Forumite
    purch wrote: »
    Er, no.

    They came out 20 minutes ago.

    Try to keep up with the News.

    It helps when you are trying to be all hysterical :eek:

    Where did you get hysterical from?
  • purch
    purch Posts: 9,865 Forumite
    Where did you get hysterical from?

    Previous posts on this particular subject ;)
    'In nature, there are neither rewards nor punishments - there are Consequences.'
  • michaels
    michaels Posts: 29,259 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Photogenic Name Dropper
    Well boosting sterling against the dollar would of course bear down on import prices but given there is no way to predict future commodity prices, if you think that wages will be constrained there is a strong argument for not raising rates to deal with a one off (and potentially reversible) deterioration in terms of trade.
    lemonjelly wrote: »
    Probably that oil, commodities & food prices are the drivers, & an IR rise won't limit their impact on inflation.

    Same as last time.

    And the time before...
    I think....
  • ILW
    ILW Posts: 18,333 Forumite
    So is 4-5% inflation something we should just get used to for the next few years?
  • lemonjelly
    lemonjelly Posts: 8,014 Forumite
    1,000 Posts Combo Breaker Mortgage-free Glee!
    ILW wrote: »
    So is 4-5% inflation something we should just get used to for the next few years?

    I wouldn't go that far, but this year at least.
    It's getting harder & harder to keep the government in the manner to which they have become accustomed.
  • HAMISH_MCTAVISH
    HAMISH_MCTAVISH Posts: 28,592 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper Photogenic
    ILW wrote: »
    So is 4-5% inflation something we should just get used to for the next few years?

    No. Just for this year.

    Next year inflation will fall as the VAT rise drops out of the equation.

    CPI-Y and CPI-CT (which exclude tax rises) are right around the 2% target.
    “The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.

    Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
    -- President John F. Kennedy”
  • ILW
    ILW Posts: 18,333 Forumite
    HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »
    No. Just for this year.

    Next year inflation will fall as the VAT rise drops out of the equation.

    CPI-Y and CPI-CT (which exclude tax rises) are right around the 2% target.

    Seem to remember he said all that a year ago.
  • HAMISH_MCTAVISH
    HAMISH_MCTAVISH Posts: 28,592 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper Photogenic
    edited 15 February 2011 at 10:26AM
    ILW wrote: »
    Seem to remember he said all that a year ago.

    Are you being deliberately obtuse?

    Do you think he expected the government to raise VAT to 20% a year ago?

    The tax rises are responsible for somewhere around 1.5% of inflation at 4%.

    Reverse them, and inflation will drop to around 2.5%.

    If you raise interest rates now, it will take 18 months to show up in the inflation figures. If you reverse the VAT rise now, it'll show up next month.

    Why isn't this thread titled...... What will Cameron and Osbornes excuse be this time?
    “The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.

    Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
    -- President John F. Kennedy”
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