Outlook for jobs to worsen

Mexas

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7aed4c68-37a6-11e0-b91a-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1Dw9YPyNJ

Outlook for jobs to worsen, says study

By Brian Groom, Business and Employment Editor

Published: February 14 2011 00:09 | Last updated: February 14 2011 00:09

Employment is likely to fall over the next few months as private sector jobs growth fails to keep pace with public sector redundancies, according to a survey by a leading professional body.

Manufacturing and private sector services will generate the majority of new jobs in the first quarter of the year, according to the survey of 750 employers by the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development and KPMG, the professional services firm.

But public sector job losses are gathering speed, with two-thirds of organisations – including more than three-quarters of local authorities – saying they will reduce their workforces in the first quarter. The average redundancy programme involves cutting nearly 13 per cent of employees.

The findings intensify fears that the labour market is entering a trickier period after so far performing much better than in previous recessions. Most economists forecast some increase in unemployment this year, although they expect the jobless rate to remain stable at 7.9 per cent of the workforce or almost 2.5m in this week’s monthly data, according to a poll by Thomson Reuters.

The CIPD/KPMG survey suggests the labour market remains delicately poised, in spite of signs in other studies that private sector hiring has been improving.

“The first quarter of 2011 was always going to be a quarter of reckoning for the jobs market, and it seems that last year’s modest recovery will be reversed by a modest relapse,” said Gerwyn Davies, the institute’s public policy adviser. Encouragingly, the private sector continues to generate new jobs, but we are some way off the jobs boom that we are all hoping for.”

The survey records a net balance of -3, meaning that employers intending to raise staff levels in the first quarter are outnumbered by those expecting a decrease. That figure has fallen from +11 three months ago. Employment is forecast to rise in London but to fall in the Midlands.

The 12-month index has fallen to -9 from +1. Three-quarters of public and one in 10 private sector employers foresee fewer staff.

The CIPD said the findings supported its forecast that unemployment will reach 9 per cent, or about 2.7m, this year and peak at 9.5 per cent in 2012.

That is more pessimistic than the independent Office for Budget Responsibility and some private sector economists. The OBR expects the jobless rate to peak at 8.1 per cent this year, declining to 6.1 per cent by 2015.

The survey forecasts average private sector pay settlements unchanged at 2.3 per cent in spite of rising inflation, while the public sector suffers a pay freeze.

Malcolm Edge, head of markets at KPMG, said: “The private sector recovery is not yet fully established, [it is] susceptible to shocks. [But] government stimulus with the banks to increase business could provide much-needed finance for growth.”

The place i work has identified 21 redundancies that will go through at the end of March. I suspect most other organisations will make the cuts before the next financial year.

doire_2

And the Tories big plan for private secotor jobs? Hold a meeting with business leaders last month the result of which Asda (yes !!!!!!! Asda) promised 30,000 new jobs

wymondham

Lots of places I visit are 'gloated' with staff. I suspect once the 'redundancy' words gets bounded around the popular press most companies will take the opportunity to jump on the bandwagon and start their processes....

amcluesent

FAO White, British workers -

If you're over 50, the scrap-heap awaits
18-24, working for free as an intern is your future
25-49, you will be competing with millions of Chinese working 6 days a week/14 hour shifts. Your only competitive advantage is your stuff can be trucked down the M6 in a day, not 6 weeks on a container ship from Kowloon.

That's the inevitable logic of globalisation.

Wookster

amcluesent wrote: »

FAO White, British workers -

If you're over 50, the scrap-heap awaits
18-24, working for free as an intern is your future
25-49, you will be competing with millions of Chinese working 6 days a week/14 hour shifts. Your only competitive advantage is your stuff can be trucked down the M6 in a day, not 6 weeks on a container ship from Kowloon.

That's the inevitable logic of globalisation.

I don't agree with much of what you say but I do agree with that post.

All over the world there is competition for jobs... and the west is losing as labour flocks to lower cost economies.

At work we are looking to outsource some back office functions in the next 2-3 years. More jobs lost.

Life will only get tougher in the western world.

Why China is still allowed to get away with an under valued RNB is beyond me. Allowing a free floating RNB won't solve all our problems, but it will help.

lisyloo

Your only competitive advantage is your stuff can be trucked down the M6 in a day, not 6 weeks on a container ship from Kowloon.

We do have another advanatge.
I can travel most places in the world without a VISA.
I compete with software engineers in India but they cannot travel to countries at short notice as they require a visa which takes time and sometimes get turned down.

But ojn the whole I agree.