MSE News: House prices predicted to fall this year

edited 14 February 2011 at 12:56PM in Mortgages & Endowments
35 replies 3.5K views
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  • brit1234 wrote: »
    You simply can't close your eyes and stick your figures in yours ears thinking happy thoughts all your life.

    This is pretty much what I have done. I have taken out various insurances, built up an emergency fund and I moved jobs into a more secure industrial sector. I feel that I have done the maximum I can to protect myself and my family and so sitting watching dire reports on the news will serve no purpose other than to cause depression.

    I stopped watching the news when we invaded Iraq and I see no reason to start watching it again. With 24hr news, every small event is now blown out of all proportion and is dissected and analysed to the n'th degree.
  • nembotnembot Forumite
    1.2K Posts
    Meeper wrote: »
    Another gloomy forecast from a "think-tank" which does nothing to assist the recovery at all. All this is doing is making people wary and concerned about their situation, making a bleak scenario for some people all the more desperate. I wish some of these "centres for economic stuff" would post some good news for once instead of trying to just get their headlines and become renowned as "experts". It's a shame that they don't realise that the negative press and information contributes to peoples' perceptions of the markets which in turn causes a slowing effect on any growth that might occur.

    Personally, I expect house prices to remain relatively steady this year, to be honest, but that's just my opinion. I'm not a think tank with a fancy name, so it probably doesn't count for much.
    I'm a Mortgage Advisor


    No vested interest here apparently....
  • MeeperMeeper Forumite
    1.4K Posts
    Interesting point of view. I have a vested interest in a recovery and not hearing negative comments persistently in the press which serve to hamper said recovery.

    Is that not the case with everyone? I would have thought we all had a vested interest in getting out of the financial doldrums as quickly as possible? Perhaps I was mistaken.
    I am an Independent Financial Adviser
    You should note that this site doesn't check my status as an Independent Financial Adviser, so you need to take my word for it. This signature is here as I follow MSE's Adviser Code of Conduct. Any posts on here are for information and discussion purposes only and shouldn't be seen as financial advice.
  • Wh05apkWh05apk Forumite
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    brit1234 wrote: »
    With respect there are lots of vested interest groups constantly trying to talk up the housing market. They constantly dominate the news at tyhe expence of independent experts. At some point despite all there spin the truth about the economic mess has to come out. Preston does that and he is one of the few people who stand up against the spin.

    You simply can't close your eyes and stick your figures in yours ears thinking happy thoughts all your life.

    House prices are simply too overvalued and need to come down to traditional levels.

    I am not trying to talk up the housing market, if I thought it would make any difference then I probably would, from your signature you are clearly hoping the property market drops?

    Talking things down does absolutely no good to anyone, we simply need to be realistic.

    With regards to Peston (Peston not Preston) whilst I find him amusing, he never says anything positive, he is always like an advert for the Samaritans, forecasting gllom & doom.

    We now renovationman says, we now live in an environment where every small piece of news is disected, and like it or not bad news sells, so that is what the news focus's on, things are not as bad as the news tells you out there, most people still have good jobs earning well, yes the housing market has got overheated, but I feel has now bottomed, provided we do not go around talking things down all the time, I think we can recover, like it or not, much of the growth over the last 10 years has been because of the feelgood factor created by increasing property prices, if we now kill that completely, we will be in recession for a long time.
    I am a mortgage adviser.
    You should note that this site doesn't check my status as a Mortgage Adviser, so you need to take my word for it. This signature is here as I follow MSE's Mortgage Adviser Code of Conduct. Any posts on here are for information and discussion purposes only and shouldn't be seen as financial advice.
  • Wh05apk wrote: »
    much of the growth over the last 10 years has been because of the feelgood factor created by increasing property prices, if we now kill that completely, we will be in recession for a long time.

    Wouldn't it be an idea to not be so dependent on leveraging house prices to create/underpin economic growth?

    Those in NI with 40% negative equity, are only in that position because they were good little citizens who supported the "growing" economy, bought into the hype and inflated the boom.

    Except that it turned out to have foundations of quicksand.

    Why can we not learn from mistakes and put in place measures to avoid repetition?

    You seem to want us to repeat it all over again.
    Act in haste, repent at leisure.

    dunstonh wrote:
    Its a serious financial transaction and one of the biggest things you will ever buy. So, stop treating it like buying an ipod.
  • Wh05apkWh05apk Forumite
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    Wouldn't it be an idea to not be so dependent on leveraging house prices to create/underpin economic growth?

    Yes I agree with you totally.

    Those in NI with 40% negative equity, are only in that position because they were good little citizens who supported the "growing" economy, bought into the hype and inflated the boom.

    Except that it turned out to have foundations of quicksand.

    Why can we not learn from mistakes and put in place measures to avoid repetition?

    You seem to want us to repeat it all over again.


    No I want the economy to recover, you seem to want us to all suffer like the northern Ireland market, before we can move forward?
    I am a mortgage adviser.
    You should note that this site doesn't check my status as a Mortgage Adviser, so you need to take my word for it. This signature is here as I follow MSE's Mortgage Adviser Code of Conduct. Any posts on here are for information and discussion purposes only and shouldn't be seen as financial advice.
  • CardewCardew Forumite
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    The group expects property prices to rise by 2.3% in 2012, followed by gains of 3.7% in 2013 and increases of 4.7% and 5.5% in 2014 and 2015, respectively.

    For a think tank to predict the rise in property prices five years ahead with an accuracy of 0.1% is plain stupidity. Who finances these organisations!

    I like to think I am an expert of Football, so I predict in 2015 Spurs will win the Premier league by 6 points and Arsenal will win promotion from the Championship back to the Premier league.
  • What's the point in moving forward prematurely, just to fall flat on our faces again? We did that once, when Brown was desperately trying to buy his way back into power.

    You are the one saying we must not kill the feelgood factor. The same feelgood factor, without foundations, that led to the boom. You want us to be positive about news which has no new factors. We have not tackled the deficit. We have not yet built fresh manufacturing or expanded the private sector to absorb public sector job losses.

    None of that will happen overnight. We are not ready to move forward, in my opinion. Not saying it has to be "awful". But its time to hunker down and ride it out. Trouble with the internet generation, is that they have no concept of patience...that good things come to those that wait.

    I don't want anyone to suffer -40% like NI. I lived through the 90s price drops. I had to find £8k to fund a house move, due to missing equity. EAs were saying "we've had a couple of years down, time to get back into the market". Good little citizens did that, and found that the prices kept dropping another 4-6 years depending on where you were...

    If prices are unsustainable, lets be honest about it and find ways to cope with it, like Lloyds' new negative-equity porting mortgage, but lets not kid ourselves that everything is magically alright, already.

    We pay £120m per day just in interest on our debts. Without even touching the capital. That is going to take a decade to sort out.

    Govt expenditure is something like 20% of GDP. Of course the economic outlook will be weak while the cutss try to deal with the deficit.

    The clever thing would be to never have to be paying more than the entire Defense budget in interest. But we are too late to avoid that, so we are where we are, and its not going to be painless.

    Ken Clark said as much, warning the middle-class - and when a politician admits there will be pain, you can rely on it not being nicer than he says..!
    Act in haste, repent at leisure.

    dunstonh wrote:
    Its a serious financial transaction and one of the biggest things you will ever buy. So, stop treating it like buying an ipod.
  • Premier_2Premier_2 Forumite
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    Meeper wrote: »
    Another gloomy forecast from a "think-tank" which does nothing to assist the recovery at all. ....

    Gloomy? :huh:

    I calculate that is a fraction over 15% increase in the next 5 years if all goes to plan.

    On a typical £250k property, that would give a growth of £37,500.

    Not bad for doing nothing. Even after paying interest (assuming no rate changes) that would produce about £25,000 extra :beer:
    "Now to trolling as a concept. .... Personally, I've always found it a little sad that people choose to spend such a large proportion of their lives in this way but they do, and we have to deal with it." - MSE Forum Manager 6th July 2010
  • ThrugelmirThrugelmir Forumite
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    What's the point in moving forward prematurely, just to fall flat on our faces again? We did that once, when Brown was desperately trying to buy his way back into power.

    You are the one saying we must not kill the feelgood factor. The same feelgood factor, without foundations, that led to the boom. You want us to be positive about news which has no new factors. We have not tackled the deficit. We have not yet built fresh manufacturing or expanded the private sector to absorb public sector job losses.

    None of that will happen overnight. We are not ready to move forward, in my opinion. Not saying it has to be "awful". But its time to hunker down and ride it out. Trouble with the internet generation, is that they have no concept of patience...that good things come to those that wait.

    I don't want anyone to suffer -40% like NI. I lived through the 90s price drops. I had to find £8k to fund a house move, due to missing equity. EAs were saying "we've had a couple of years down, time to get back into the market". Good little citizens did that, and found that the prices kept dropping another 4-6 years depending on where you were...

    If prices are unsustainable, lets be honest about it and find ways to cope with it, like Lloyds' new negative-equity porting mortgage, but lets not kid ourselves that everything is magically alright, already.

    We pay £120m per day just in interest on our debts. Without even touching the capital. That is going to take a decade to sort out.

    Govt expenditure is something like 20% of GDP. Of course the economic outlook will be weak while the cutss try to deal with the deficit.

    The clever thing would be to never have to be paying more than the entire Defense budget in interest. But we are too late to avoid that, so we are where we are, and its not going to be painless.

    Ken Clark said as much, warning the middle-class - and when a politician admits there will be pain, you can rely on it not being nicer than he says..!

    There's a great forum board dedicated to discussing House Prices and wider economic issues. This board is primarily for those seeking mortgage and indirectly money advice. ;)
    It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong." — George Soros
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