A crash is a crash is a crash.

geneer

Can someone help me out please.
Because there are numerous posters who repeatedly seem to be posting that theres "been no crash", or "no crash to speak of".

Yet when I look at, say, this graph of nominal prices, and, y'know, simply compare the rate and scale of recent falls to what was most certainly considered to be the 90's crash, its obviously clear that this ludicrous assertion is absolute poppycock.



Yet they appear to continue with their discredited, unsubstantiated, apparently ignorant assertions.
So whats the story?
Thanks in advance for your assistance.

mbga9pgf

According to market theory, the @rse is about to fall out of inflation adjusted prices.

Graham_Devon

The issue isn't the size of the crash....it's the fact it hasn't crashed 97.233%, which someone once said somewhere, and therefore every single pessimist in the hosuing market hasn't got "their" crash.

And that, really, sums up everything else on this part of the forum.

Turnbull2000

There was a crash of sorts, but it was swiftly halted and based on very few transactions. So basically, most of those who were hoping for much cheaper housing didn't get it. And for the vast majority of owners/mortgagees, there has indeed been no real crash - because they've simply opted not to sell, and have instead benefited from ultra low mortgage rates or renting out with a view to selling up in future.

And I gather that chart is nominal prices? Previous crashes have taken place through high wage inflation. We're not getting that any more.

If you want to talk crashes geneer, look towards Ireland or the US, not here.

purch

Can someone help me out please

Through the door behind you, straight down the corridor, left at the end.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

geneer wrote: »

So whats the story?

Story's pretty simple.

There was a crash.

You failed to take advantage of it.

Then there was a recovery, and you've been a bit angry ever since. And now you post endless bitter rants on not one, not two, not three, but four house price boards in a vain attempt to make yourself feel better.

Prices now sit around 10% below peak in most areas, whilst some areas have recovered to peak prices or thereabouts. The doomers on hpc predicting 50%, 70% and even 90% falls got it completely wrong.

Most people that delayed purchasing waiting for the crash would have been better off just buying and taking advantage of the record low rates.

With rents soaring, mortgages deals now far worse than pre-crash, and price falls being so small in most areas, the number of people who can now actually benefit from the crash they predicted is vanishingly small.

Graham_Devon

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Then there was a recovery, and you've been a bit angry ever since. And now you post endless bitter rants on not one, not two, not three, but four house price boards in a vain attempt to make yourself feel better.

How do you know?

I take it you post your rants on not one, not two, not three, but four house price boards too

geneer

Graham_Devon wrote: »

The issue isn't the size of the crash....it's the fact it hasn't crashed 97.233%, which someone once said somewhere, and therefore every single pessimist in the hosuing market hasn't got "their" crash.

And that, really, sums up everything else on this part of the forum.

That is indeed the intellectually bankrupt basis of one of the more popular post economic collapse bull memes.

But I don't see that disclaimer any time one of these lightweights opens their yaps.
There must be another reason.

geneer

Graham_Devon wrote: »

How do you know?

I take it you post your rants on not one, not two, not three, but four house price boards too

As I recall spamish was banned on HPC (1) for being a troll.

He was regularly laughed out of GlobalHousePricecrash (2) for being a comedy stereotype of a troll.

He rarely pops into CreditCrunch (3) for hit and run type missions, but like many of the threads he starts here on MSE (4) he tends to lose interest the majority of the time.
The fact that someone has made some salient point, or offered a watertight counter argument obviously has nothing to do with it.:rotfl:

geneer

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Story's pretty simple.

There was a crash.

You failed to take advantage of it.

Then there was a recovery, and you've been a bit angry ever since. And now you post endless bitter rants on not one, not two, not three, but four house price boards in a vain attempt to make yourself feel better.

Prices now sit around 10% below peak in most areas, whilst some areas have recovered to peak prices or thereabouts. The doomers on hpc predicting 50%, 70% and even 90% falls got it completely wrong.

Most people that delayed purchasing waiting for the crash would have been better off just buying and taking advantage of the record low rates.

With rents soaring, mortgages deals now far worse than pre-crash, and price falls being so small in most areas, the number of people who can now actually benefit from the crash they predicted is vanishingly small.

:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:Yeah, clearly we're the angry ones spamish.

BTW, congratulations on instantly and thoughtlessly falling into the comedy stereotype Devon spelled out prior to your boss-eyed post.

You clearly have the self awareness of a rock.

geneer

Turnbull2000 wrote: »

And for the vast majority of owners/mortgagees, there has indeed been no real crash - because they've simply opted not to sell, and have instead benefited from ultra low mortgage rates or renting out with a view to selling up in future

And here we have bovine intellectually discredited bull memes no's 1002, and 798.

1002: Your house hasn't dropped in value if you don't sell.

Logical Counterargument (1002): That would mean for someone who bought in 2000 but hasn't sold, their house hasn't increased in value either. Obvious nonsense.:rotfl:


789: Clever bulls benefiting from ultra low rates.

Logical Counterargument (789): The base rates which fell in response the the global financial collapse they never saw coming, caused by the bubble they claimed didn't exist. Well done!
Meanwhile rates for those with less than 25% deposits aren't that different from what they were pre the crash that didn't happen. :A

Turnbull2000 wrote: »

And I gather that chart is nominal prices? Previous crashes have taken place through high wage inflation. We're not getting that any more.

Well done. Was it the statement "this graph of nominal prices" which gave the secret away.
Anyhow, poppycock. There was an approx £10K fall in average prices in the 90's crash. But little hint: there is no such thing as the average house.
High wage inflation didn't stop negative equity or people losing their homes.
Try again caller.