A stern warning from a central banker

Percy1983

I am starting to wonder if the original recovery from recession really happened, to me it feels like the labour government got a payday loan and then said the problem is sorted... we all know how those stories end.

Hereward

smeagold wrote: »

mid summer spike to 5% fall back to 4% autumn, after that who knows, thems official stats, real inflation is about 8%

What makes you think that inflation will spike at 5% in mid summer before falling back to 4%?

Why do you think the "real" inflation rate is 8%?

nembot

Historically, it's not the recession which proves the hardest to live through - it's the recovery period.

The chances of improvement here in the short term, are slim.

nembot

Hereward wrote: »

Why do you think the "real" inflation rate is 8%?

Looking at Tesco's prices, it's closer to 10% and some products have increased by far more than this.

Anecdotal, I know

IronWolf

A bag of crisps at my office went up 10% this year.

Therefore, real inflation is 10%.

adwat

nembot wrote: »

Looking at Tesco's prices, it's closer to 10% and some products have increased by far more than this.

Anecdotal, I know

Agreed. Inflation is far higher than the official figure - food, petrol, gas & electricity, council tax - all these have increased more than 4%, some massively so.

I worked out my personal inflation for last year and it comes to 10% for the above items which are the minimum you need to run a household - I'm sure if I put in "optional" items like car & home insurance (which have risen horrendously) it would be slightly higher.

Given the real increases in cost of living and the unlikely prospect of inflation busting wage rises we're in for a period of austerity - this much we're told on an almost daily basis.

Houseprices are going to go fall slowly for a good ten years I reckon - as interest rates are slowly increased over this time period.

CloudCuckooLand

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/feb/02/bank-england-may-raise-interest-rates-charles-bean

"Bank of England may be forced to raise interest rates, deputy governor warns"

"A continuing commodity price boom fuelled by growth in emerging markets would push the MPC into a 'not nice' rate hike, Charles Bean says"


Not all external inflation is being ignored...or the domestic inflation would need to be held down, to make the overall figure lower...

tomterm8

IronWolf wrote: »

A bag of crisps at my office went up 10% this year.

Therefore, real inflation is 10%.

If it's anything like the crisps I buy, they probably reduced the amount of crisps in the bag a couple of grams as well.

Hereward

adwat wrote: »

Agreed. Inflation is far higher than the official figure - food, petrol, gas & electricity, council tax - all these have increased more than 4%, some massively so.

I worked out my personal inflation for last year and it comes to 10% for the above items which are the minimum you need to run a household - I'm sure if I put in "optional" items like car & home insurance (which have risen horrendously) it would be slightly higher.

Given the real increases in cost of living and the unlikely prospect of inflation busting wage rises we're in for a period of austerity - this much we're told on an almost daily basis.

Houseprices are going to go fall slowly for a good ten years I reckon - as interest rates are slowly increased over this time period.

Did you use this?

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/pic/

bendix

IronWolf wrote: »

A bag of crisps at my office went up 10% this year.

Therefore, real inflation is 10%.

Lol. This made me laugh.

Nice one Mr Wolf. I like the cut of your jib.