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UK Q4 GDP contracts unexpectedly by 0.5 pct qq
Comments
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talk of stagflation on bbc
can someone please explain what happens to the uk if we do have stagflation
thanks
Deflation in everything you own, inflation in everything you useHi, we’ve had to remove your signature. If you’re not sure why please read the forum rules or email the forum team if you’re still unsure - MSE ForumTeam0 -
talk of stagflation on bbc
can someone please explain what happens to the uk if we do have stagflation
thanks
Yup, it didn't take too long! BBC News givin' it big!
As predicted: http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.php?p=40229284&postcount=5
There is a pleasure in the pathless woods, There is a rapture on the lonely shore, There is society, where none intrudes, By the deep sea, and music in its roar: I love not man the less, but Nature more...0 -
talk of stagflation on bbc
can someone please explain what happens to the uk if we do have stagflation
thanks
Stagflation is the conflation of two words, stagnation and inflation.
Keynesian economic theory as generally interpreted (bearing in mind that Keynes regularly contradicted himself in the same book) is that inflation is caused when too much output is created by the economy and so that output becomes more expensive to produce (eg because of overtime payments).
Stagflation is where Keynesianism stops working. In fact you could (and probably should) argue that it shows that the conventional interpretation of Keynes is entirely wrong as you shouldn't be able to have a world with inflation and falling/stagnant GDP.
So what's happening? My opinion is that the UK's economy has some structural problems based around having produced almost no new jobs outside of the state sector, finance and construction. An unsustainable housing boom (across the world) was fed by a growing financial system based, in part, in London. That increased GDP unsustainably and the Labour Government took almost all of that GDP growth and allocated it to the public sector.
As the housing boom (worldwide) has faltered or gone into reverse, so has the financial industry that grew hand-in-hand with it. That has removed the GDP that the Labour (and many other) Governments took and spent. That is why Government spending will have to fall, despite the further negative impact on GDP. It's because the part of the economy the Government used to increase spending isn't there any more in the size that it was and it isn't coming back any time soon.0 -
How the hell do you work that out? Ohh thats right because in a recession poeple have loads of money to spend and aren't worried about their jobs so can spend silly money on a house
The reverse logic being that in an economic boom house prices go down!Hi, we’ve had to remove your signature. If you’re not sure why please read the forum rules or email the forum team if you’re still unsure - MSE ForumTeam0 -
Deflation in everything you own, inflation in everything you use
Does that include all your gold and silver bits and bobs?'Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers visible or invisible giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the worlds wealthiest and most prosperous people' Margaret Thatcher0 -
.
Keynesian economic theory as generally interpreted (bearing in mind that Keynes regularly contradicted himself in the same book) is that inflation is caused when too much output is created by the economy and so that output becomes more expensive to produce (eg because of overtime payments).
right so when dozens of companies produce millions of competing items and floods the market with said items, the consequence of oversupply is a rising price ?
Most of our leading economists are keynesians, no wonder we're in such a mess.Hi, we’ve had to remove your signature. If you’re not sure why please read the forum rules or email the forum team if you’re still unsure - MSE ForumTeam0 -
worldtraveller wrote: »Yup, it didn't take too long! BBC News givin' it big!
As predicted: http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.php?p=40229284&postcount=5
Was that the decade when house prices increased by going on for 400%?'Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers visible or invisible giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the worlds wealthiest and most prosperous people' Margaret Thatcher0 -
View from Citi ~ fwiw.There are many uncertainties over the accuracy of these data. The ONS at this stage has very limited December data on which to base its estimate of the snow effects. Moreover, the ONS reports that construction activity fell especially sharply (-3.3% QQ) – the data for this sector have been volatile in recent quarters.
Business surveys, even for December, do not indicate anything like as much weakness in GDP as the ONS reports. The UK produces GDP figures rather earlier after the end of each quarter than most other countries, and as a result has a tendency to revise the figures quite sharply after their first release.
The same may well happen again. We suspect that the economy's underlying momentum in Q4 was nothing like as weak as the headline drop in GDP implies.
http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CBYQFjAA&url=https%3A%2F%2Fir.citi.com%2Fqgo5zvisIVxPrJW264h0c2wTNgPBoOrPDQq2z0z7D%252Fk%3D&ei=fcE-TZWXN8yIhQfe88DrCg&usg=AFQjCNEt04w_K1DBTYQSn4YTimXoOnh6EAIf I don't reply to your post,
you're probably on my ignore list.0 -
Settle down, I know you are excited but I think we need to wait for Q1 2011 confirmation of the end of GB. It does seem there is one bright spot and that was the growth in manufacturing, also remember the figures are based on 40% of the data.'Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers visible or invisible giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the worlds wealthiest and most prosperous people' Margaret Thatcher0
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right so when dozens of companies produce millions of competing items and floods the market with said items, the consequence of oversupply is a rising price ?
Most of our leading economists are keynesians, no wonder we're in such a mess.
The same cannot be said for housing (the worse performing sector in the current gdp figures).'Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers visible or invisible giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the worlds wealthiest and most prosperous people' Margaret Thatcher0
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