Silver May Decline 20% as Coin Sales Signal `Crowd': Technical Analysis

RenovationMan

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-20/silver-may-decline-20-as-coin-sales-signal-crowd-technical-analysis.html

"Silver prices may retreat as much as 20 percent this year as soaring demand for physical metal signals a “crowded” trade, said Barry James, the chief executive officer of James Investment Research Inc.
Sales of 1-ounce American Eagle silver coins have totaled 4,588,000 in January, heading for a record, according to data from the U.S. Mint. Silver futures in New York rallied 84 percent last year, climbing to a 30-year high of $31.275 an ounce on Jan. 3, as investors sought a haven against financial turmoil.
“The coin sales are an indication of the level of interest in silver,” said James, who oversees $2.4 billion in Xenia, Ohio. “It’s too popular. When the crowd discovers a good deal, it’s usually long over.”

Something I was mentioning in a thread a couple of weeks back where I noted that when the crowd start runnign towards an investment, I start running the other way.

smeagold

RenovationMan wrote: »

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-20/silver-may-decline-20-as-coin-sales-signal-crowd-technical-analysis.html

"Silver prices may retreat as much as 20 percent this year as soaring demand for physical metal signals a “crowded” trade, said Barry James, the chief executive officer of James Investment Research Inc.
Sales of 1-ounce American Eagle silver coins have totaled 4,588,000 in January, heading for a record, according to data from the U.S. Mint. Silver futures in New York rallied 84 percent last year, climbing to a 30-year high of $31.275 an ounce on Jan. 3, as investors sought a haven against financial turmoil.
“The coin sales are an indication of the level of interest in silver,” said James, who oversees $2.4 billion in Xenia, Ohio. “It’s too popular. When the crowd discovers a good deal, it’s usually long over.”

Something I was mentioning in a thread a couple of weeks back where I noted that when the crowd start runnign towards an investment, I start running the other way.

crowd? what crowd? 4 mill oz sold in one month in US(not to mention the amount that is bought then shipped abroad by dealers for international markets) amounts to 4 mill oz divided by US population of 330 mill equals 0.01212 oz per head of population, hardly a mad rush by joe public. The smart money's getting in now the 'crowded trade' is a long way away.

and who ever heard of James international? check out their website, bible bashers:

To be recognized as the best investment firm in America. Because we try to follow God honoring principles, we will spearhead a dramatic improvement in the reputation of our industry.
http://www.jir-inc.com/

sign up mate you might get a free bible with every penny stock recommendation:D

Asheron

Properganda that basically says (please don't panic buy)

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Gold and Silver continue to crash......

No surprise there then.

StevieJ

Asheron wrote: »

Properganda that basically says (please don't panic buy)

A bit like that bible basher that you keep quoting

Loopgames

Yippee - january sale on silver - load the truck!

RenovationMan

Loopgames wrote: »

Yippee - january sale on silver - load the truck!

Lets just hope there isnt a February and March sale, or your truck could be loaded with overpriced silver.

smeagold

THE_GHOULS_ARE_FOOLS wrote: »

Hamish said house prices wouldn't crash. He was right.
Hamish said silver and gold prices would crash. He was right AGAIN.

All you gold bugs and bears and muppets need to listen to what the wise man is telling you. It's for your own financial well-being.

Silver rose 80% in 2010 and has now corrected 8%, perfectly normal correction: its not the first time and it won't be the last. Calling it a crash reveals a deep ignorance of economics and markets, copper oil wheat soya have all corrected recently , oil dropped from $92 to $88 last week is that a crash? you expecting cheaper petrol or food going forward. If you learn the difference between a crash and a correction in a bull market people might take what you have to say slightely more seriously.

By your own definition if 8% drop in silver is a crash what is a drop in UK housing(nominal avg) from £183,959 (Q2 2007) to £163,244 (Q4 2010)?

http://www.mortgageguideuk.co.uk/housing/uk-house-price-index.html

Its about 11%. so according to your 'logic' a silver correction of 8% is a crash but a UK housing fall of over 10% isn't. Work that one out!!!:rotfl:

System

smeagold wrote: »

By your own definition if 8% drop in silver is a crash what is a drop in UK housing(nominal avg) from £183,959 (Q2 2007) to £163,244 (Q4 2010)?

Its about 11%. so according to your 'logic' a silver correction of 8% is a crash but a UK housing fall of over 10% isn't. Work that one out!!!:rotfl:

So, neither of them are a crash then?

smeagold

Joeskeppi wrote: »

So, neither of them are a crash then?

UK housing is in the process of crashing, QE and low IRs have temporarily helped the Housing market to stabilise, but that is temporary. Housing will continue to fall in real and nominal terms for many years. Recent statitics reveal that a million home owners will be unable to pay their mortgages if IRs rise by a couple of percent and sooner or later they must rise. The governemnt can continue to prop up the market but eventually they must allow housing to fall to levels that ordinary people can afford them. There are 2 ways they can do that, they can increase IRs to historic norms and we get a crash (short sharp over quick) or else they can continue to devalue the pound through inflation which gives the impression houses are not falling so much(wage price spiral- wages increase but housing remain flat) but when you look a bit deeper you realise just how much they are falling in real terms ie against silver: The crash is more than apparent:

Loopgames

RenovationMan wrote: »

Lets just hope there isnt a February and March sale, or your truck could be loaded with overpriced silver.

I'll just have 2 more trucks ready.:D