When interest rates to go back to normal many more distressed sellers?

Bigdeflationfirst

JonnyBravo wrote: »

From signature -


I dont think there's much danger of that eh?
Best you concentrate on the 1oz of silver you buy each month instead.

You are already wrong because we are seeing that, and the deflation is getting bigger until the money printing gets ramped up to fight it.

Dont worry with the spot price of silver getting suppressed so low I can buy more than 1 0z and more often then once per month

RenovationMan

Bigdeflationfirst wrote: »

Talking about many who have bought the last few years, who can only just afford repayments now.

I'd imagine the number of people who bought since BoE rates fell to 0.5 are very low. Property sale transaction levels bear this out.

Given that some of these low sales will be people moving house (I'm one of them) it would not be surprising that they already have a decent amount of equity built up and they would have been used to much higher interest rates from their previous mortgages.

Finally, the lending criteria is much stricter since the BoE rate went to 0.5% (i.e. post credit crunch), so the banks will not have lent to people they thought were over extending themselves and might defaulkt on their new mortgages as soon as rates normalized.

Bigdeflationfirst wrote: »

I am talking about the fact that we will not see the real bottom of the housing crash until interest rates are back to normal, and there is a clear out of all the repossessions that are looming.

We won't see interest rates back to normal (whatever that is) until we see the economy back to normal. If the economy is back to normal then people will have the money to pay their mortgages. I don't see any looming reposessions in these circumstances. Sorry.

JonnyBravo

Bigdeflationfirst wrote: »

Dont worry with the spot price of silver getting suppressed so low I can buy more than 1 0z and more often then once per month

Ah, another one now desperate to change his back story.
Sure you can.

That's why you went to the trouble of deleting all the posts where you disclosed too much about your buying and the actual amounts involved. ie It's 1oz a month that you buy.

Bigdeflationfirst

JonnyBravo wrote: »

Ah, another one now desperate to change his back story.
Sure you can.

That's why you went to the trouble of deleting all the posts where you disclosed too much about your buying and the actual amounts involved. ie It's 1oz a month that you buy.

What are you talking about another one to change his back story? I dont care what the price of silver is in the short term I will buy a little here and there, the lower they push it the more ounces I can get for the same currency

buglawton

I don't think the economy will revert to pre-2008 property based euphoria this century. It has changed shape permanently.

Bigdeflationfirst

buglawton wrote: »

I don't think the economy will revert to pre-2008 property based euphoria this century. It has changed shape permanently.

Yes its changed, we are looking at the longest and maybe the bigest bear market property has ever seen. Next decade house will be less value than they were this decade.

RenovationMan

Bigdeflationfirst wrote: »

Yes its changed, we are looking at the longest and maybe the bigest bear market property has ever seen. Next decade house will be less value than they were this decade.

And yet there is so much pent up demand and interest in houses that people spend hours on house price related forums talking about them. I just don't think the love affaire with property is over, especially given that it's held its value to so well against other investment options. I was always a 'shares' man, but I have to say that I have been impressed with the robustness of property during these austere times that I'm starting to change my stance.

I'm still not totally convinced about property investment but the results speak for themselves.

Bigdeflationfirst

Even if you know property is now in a bear market? And you know in a few years time houses will be cheaper than they are now?

shortchanged_2

RenovationMan wrote: »

We're using the word 'optimists' instead of bulls. You're clearly a depressive and in the words of Sheryl Crow, "I wonder if mcc's ever had a day of fun in his whole life".

Cheer up misery, it's Christmas. :santa2:

I prefer to call the optimists 'gamblers/chancers' and the depressives as 'sensible/prudent'.

RenovationMan

Bigdeflationfirst wrote: »

Even if you know property is now in a bear market? And you know in a few years time houses will be cheaper than they are now?

But most people don't think like this, they see a [perceived] bargain and pile in. Most people don't spend years on house price forums talking about house prices with like-minded people and convincing themselves that a market will move a certain way just because they want it to. Most people don't gamble on the movement of house prices. Most people can't/won't be prepared to spend years waiting to see if they can get a house cheaper, especially if they are paying higher rent.

This puts me in mind of a discussion I had with my daughter. She is at High School and, as you would imagine, moves in a small circle. She seemed to be getting complacent about her school work because she was in the top sets for all her subjects and doing well against her peers. She wants to go to Uni and study medicine, which is very competitive so I reminded her that she wasn't just competing against the people she knew and the people around her, she was competing against a much wider population of students.

The guys on here and HPC, etc. would do well to remember this. They are competing for bargains and most of their competitors are not restricted by the dogma spouted on forums and may not have the same financial restrictions as their HPC peers. They will buy when they can afford it, when they perceive a bargain, when they decide its time. They won't be part of some collective who think that houses have to drop a certain percentage before they are 'affordable' they are individuals. You might be waiting for a particular house to drop 20%, a competitor might be waiting for it to drop 15%. It's as simple as that.