When interest rates to go back to normal many more distressed sellers?

buglawton

So the message is, if planning to upsize, stay firmly put till the real price crash.

Poshbird

Sibley wrote: »

There are nearly 3000 people on the council waiting list around here.

Don't count on the benefit capping lasting long.

Yes exactly, all these people have to live somewhere, and when there is no other option but to but to keep cutting housing ben every year there will be a fall in average rents.

Poshbird

The Bank of England is keen to keep interest rates low for as long as it can, and Morgan Stanley admits that if rates don't rise as they expect, then house prices falls may be delayed until 2013. But we'd note that if rates don't rise, inflationary pressure will only get worse – and that'll put added pressure on consumers' balance sheets too. One way or another, house prices in Britain are heading for another big fall.

buglawton

Even today I exaggerate only slightly by saying you can get a moated castle in Germany for the price of 4-bed detached in the home counties of the UK. The contrast looks stark - the only way is down...

buglawton

Or a 23-room town house in a leafy square in a pleasant provincial Southern French town - around £250k, real example as a relative bought one. I got to thinking 'why so cheap compared to UK?' and came to the conclusion that the French system of credit means people can only buy what they can actually afford and sustain. No wonder the 'credit crunch' barely affected France (or Germany for that matter).

This means if UK's credit system were to converge with the type of rules that exist in Europe, our house prices would begin to too. This is NOT a good time to speculate upwards with UK property.

Poshbird

buglawton wrote: »

Even today I exaggerate only slightly by saying you can get a moated castle in Germany for the price of 4-bed detached in the home counties of the UK. The contrast looks stark - the only way is down...

How does the average UK house price compare castles in Germany long term?

Its a good indicator looking at long term ratios comparing stuff with stuff.

In 1980 you could buy an average house in the UK for about 500 ounces of silver. Now its several thousand ounces needed to buy an average house.

Kohoutek

Poshbird wrote: »

In 1980 you could buy an average house in the UK for about 500 ounces of silver. Now its several thousand ounces needed to buy an average house.

RDB wrote:

In 1980, you could buy the average UK house for one thousand ounces of silver. A thousand ounces of silver now costs about £10,000, while the average UK house is now about £140,000.

MikeMaloney wrote:

In 1980 you could buy an average house in London for about 800 ounces of silver.

Well you can buy 800 ounces of silver now for about £20,000.

Llubrevlis wrote:

But at the moment 500oz of silver costs under £10,000 so when the time come that you can buy a house in London for 500 ounces of silver then we will know silver is reaching its new peak.

In 1980 it took 1000 oz of silver to buy a house in London and silver wasnt extremely rare then.

MrEnglish wrote:

Any way to answer your question Generali, through out the 70`s a medium house was worth about 1600 ounces of silver by 1980 you could buy that house for about 800 ounces.

Because of JPMorgan suppressing the price of silver so much for so long, the silver to houseprice ratio is way out of wack. You can buy 800 ounces now for about 20grand. Silver is far too cheap and house prices are still way overvalued.

et cetera...

Poshbird

Bohdy wrote: »

So which is it? 500, 800 or 1000 ounces would buy a house in 1980?

The answer is in November 1980 silver was over $50 but only for a short time. For this short time it took about 500 ounces of silver to buy an average house in London.

But for most of the year silver averaged about $35oz, so on average most say about 800 ounces of silver bought an average house in 1980. This time the cycle seems to be repeating and at the top for silver and bottom for houses I would imagine less than 500 ounces. But this will only be for a short time. I can see around 1000 ounces buying an average house for a while.

A very good read about UK house prices

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303657404576361491383794696.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

JanCee

The last time I bought a house I paid the vendor via a chaps transfer, there was no silver involved in the transaction at all.

buglawton

Poshbird wrote: »

How does the average UK house price compare castles in Germany long term?

Its a good indicator looking at long term ratios comparing stuff with stuff.

In 1980 you could buy an average house in the UK for about 500 ounces of silver. Now its several thousand ounces needed to buy an average house.

I'm not going to get dragged down the silver alley... long term house prices in Germany have tracked salaries with the odd 'hot spot' exception like in Munich or Frankfurt. Anyone who bought decades ago in Germany, hoping to 'make a killing' would be disappointed.