Baltic Dry index.... DEEEED

Generali

vivatifosi wrote: »

The floods are getting a fair amount of news coverage here, but more as a human interest story than an economic one. I've only seen one story that spoke about the impact on the mining industry. My mum phoned my uncle in Qld who lives downriver from Bundaberg. She asked if he was going to move out if the floods come. He said hell no, and that's why people in Qld live in Queenslanders. You're right. They're a tough bunch up there, even if he's a pom.

Huge amounts of coal, grain and beef are exported from Queensland. There may well be an impact on the coal price in particular.

Generali

StevieJ wrote: »

The OZ stock market has been reflecting the problems.

There are also legitimate fears that the Aussie consumer and house market are running out of steam. If the house market goes badly enough into reverse, the Aussie banks will be in trouble as they have big exposure to residential mortgages.

I don't think there'll be a big reverse but it is perfectly possible.

mbga9pgf

Gen, what sort of mining do they do predominantly? Open or underground? Are they looking at closure of mines due to weakening of shafts due to the rainwater?

Generali

mbga9pgf wrote: »

Gen, what sort of mining do they do predominantly? Open or underground? Are they looking at closure of mines due to weakening of shafts due to the rainwater?

I could pretend to know but I had no idea until I turned up this:

http://www.dme.qld.gov.au/zone_files/coal_files_pdf/new_coal_min_adv_proj_2010_1.pdf

41 open cut mines
13 underground mines

You can see that the coal ports are between MacKay and Rockhampton and then down at Gladstone with another further north at Bowen. All of those places have had and/or are having extensive flooding. When you see the pictures of the floods, remember the houses are mostly built on 2-3 metre tall stilts. I think the flood waters peaked at Rockhampton(?) this weekend at 6.2m, slightly better than the 6.4m predicted.

Around Brisbane and Northern NSW they are now getting up to 60mm rain per hour. Presumably some of that water will find its way north into the flooded areas, depending on how the catchment works there.

They exported AU$41,000,000,000-worth of coal last year and I am pretty sure that they are expanding as fast as they can so they are probably exporting about AU$1,000,000,000/week in coal. Plenty of that will be unable to get to port. Presumably there is a fair bit that is already out of the ground at the mines so disruption to mining activity might take longer to lead on to a shortage of coal for export.

My thought is that the biggest problem facing the mines will be getting the product from where it is to the ports. Getting ships to the ports probably isn't much fun at the moment either. If a series of storms has enough energy in it to drop 1mm water per minute for 2-3 weeks then it is probably pretty windy up there too.

Oh, and if you are thinking of going up there to help, don't. You will not be made welcome NSFW

setmefree2

There's an oversupply of ships

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=adpZxsWTmN_Q

While Clarkson Plc, the world’s biggest shipbroker, expects seaborne trade in the two cargoes to exceed 2 billion metric tons for the first time this year, the 7 percent increase won’t be enough to eliminate a glut. About 200 capesizes, spanning some 35 miles end-to-end, will leave shipyards this year, expanding the fleet by 18 percent, the Bloomberg survey showed.

Generali

I don't understand that graph. Is it cumulative or a proportion of outstanding mortgages? If it's cumulative, how can the total number of Option ARMs in foreclosure have dropped at one point? If it's proportion of o/s mortgages then almost everyone must have been foreclosed on.

vivatifosi

I have more news this am from where my family are in Qld. Panic buying is now rife in my cousin's town as while it isn't at risk of flooding at moment, the roads are cut off. The local fire and rescue teams are having to make decisions about where to deploy vehicles as roads in and out of some of the towns are flooded, so they've had to decide where to leave apparatus for the greatest rescue effect. My cousin can't get to my uncle's house (he's 80) because the road between the two is cut off, though where he live is ironically less affected as he's on higher ground. The toilet block from his local petrol station has been washed down river and is now bobbing about in the sea!

Generali

vivatifosi wrote: »

I have more news this am from where my family are in Qld. Panic buying is now rife in my cousin's town as while it isn't at risk of flooding at moment, the roads are cut off. The local fire and rescue teams are having to make decisions about where to deploy vehicles as roads in and out of some of the towns are flooded, so they've had to decide where to leave apparatus for the greatest rescue effect. My cousin can't get to my uncle's house (he's 80) because the road between the two is cut off, though where he live is ironically less affected as he's on higher ground. The toilet block from his local petrol station has been washed down river and is now bobbing about in the sea!

Great granny is in Sydney thankfully. Aunt and uncle and assorted cousins in and around Brisbane are living on high ground - if they get flooded then most of the CBD will have become a part of the Pacific Ocean!

The problem now seems to be that the dams that were built to mitigate flooding are all full so the water is going to have to be released down into the Brisbane river. And it's still chucking it down.

Natural catastrophe is a part of living in much of Australia unfortunately.

vivatifosi

Here's an article about the toilet block from the local garage. I love Australian news stories in the face of adversity, gives the Mash a run for its money:

http://www.frasercoastchronicle.com.au/story/2011/01/10/floating-loo-travels-hervey-bay/

vivatifosi

Generali wrote: »

Great granny is in Sydney thankfully. Aunt and uncle and assorted cousins in and around Brisbane are living on high ground - if they get flooded then most of the CBD will have become a part of the Pacific Ocean!

CBD on the news here this am. Saying how people are having trouble getting out of their offices and back to their houses because of the road closures.

Gen, can I ask you a big favour? If you hear anything about the Fraser Coast/Maryborough area on the news there can you post it so I pick it up? Its very frustrating having UK news here, I wish I could watch the Aussie broadcasts. Maryborough Advertiser hasn't updated its website for a few days. I know my uncle is ok (as in his house isn't underwater) but it is worrying to have an 80 year old cut off potentially without food and no family able to get to him.