Where in belfast area for first time buyer?

talksalot81

I am not trying to have a go at everyone... the thread never started along this line. For instance, take post 34, I was quite content with accepting matters. However post after post the respondants continued to tell me I was wrong. I simply followed by saying why I didn't buy into their arguements.

In the end of the day, I dont lose out if I am wrong (and that is personal circumstance which indeed I have not divulged). In the long term the only thing likely to really hurt me is getting a big debt now that I cannot (for whatever reason) afford. Therefore I have the simple choice between risk with relatively small reward, or almost no risk at all without the reward. Easy choice.

talksalot81

fredy34 wrote:

No kidding!!!

I'd be insulted but not only have I evidence from mortgage suppliers disagreeing with you... but I dont know which figure to disagree with because you have changed your mind significantly from your earlier post.

I'll trust my PhD rather than opinions which fail to consider reality.

fredy34

talksalot81 wrote:

I'd be insulted but not only have I evidence from mortgage suppliers disagreeing with you... but I dont know which figure to disagree with because you have changed your mind significantly from your earlier post.

I'll trust my PhD rather than opinions which fail to consider reality.

Feel free to post your evidence!

My larger quote of interest only was me trying to guess what sort of house your after.

I know precisely the figures as im in the process of a re-mortgage actually got it cheaper than i thougght. £135k house 85k interest only is working out at £338(nationwide).




If you think its £700 i can save you money! only trying to be helpful!

jetboy

If i were you I would use your PHD to have a serious look at your calculations of renting v buying. Even when you factor in no growth whatsoever you will still be better off with a mortgage. The interest would probably need to double before your figures come close. I would class myself as cautious and tend also to do a lot of homework too before making investments but I've been doing this calculation for long enough to know you're off the mark here.

bakkah

Depends what you are after, if its a home to live in for a long time and you can afford it without living on oats or doing something stupid like lying to get it or interest only (relying on capital gain) it shouldn’t make any difference as your home is your home first and foremost, an asset secondly.

Personally not moving house until the overpaying madness has stopped and those that have paid 100k+ over asking price realise they have been suckered, just not sure when this point will come, could be that current selling prices are fine and it will take a year for this point to come.

Then again it might go on for another ten years and my 3br semi will be worth a million pounds, oh, and a loaf of bread will cost a hundred

The_Equalizer_3

The many threads on here show a worrying lack of any understanding of finance. The only one with any plain sense and structured argument has been ‘talksalot81’ who has produced figures to back up his case. Northern Ireland is so obviously in a property bubble. It’s a simple fact that renting is far cheaper than an interest only mortgage and this is all you need to know long term. I’ll give you my anecdotal example.

I currently live in a house near Forestside – ‘market value of probably £300K which I rent for £600/month. The landlady kindly pays the rates too. I’m sure she’s making money as she bought a few years back so everyone’s happy. However, (and this is the key point that everyone except for the odd poster on here like talksalot81 fails to grasp) if anyone were to buy this house today it would cost them approximately £1450/month interest only including rates. That’s a net loss each month of £850. If you’re bored you can go on PropertyNews.com and find many such examples.

So the crowd here will argue that prices are going up by x% per year which means the house will have gone up y pounds. All true, but eventually this madness driven by pure fear and greed will subside. Then, when there isn’t this capital appreciation, large numbers of these new investors will be loosing money hand-over-fist. This is when sentiment will turn and where we now have blind faith there will be blind panic.

It’s these fundamentals that none of the bulls have disproved. Just to save a few posts I’ll knock down some other arguments that will appear:

1) Look what’s happened to Dublin. Firstly we are not Dublin, Northern Ireland’s economy is no where near as productive nor are wages so high. Moreover, Dublin’s house price boom has suddenly come to a standstill. The ECB will be raising rates again. A quarter percent rise in December is already priced into the market. As this credit tightening occurs well see the true value of property;

2) House prices never go down. Well that’s what they said in the late Eighties London and Tokyo. That’s what they said in the US until recently;

3) They’ll just give people longer, bigger better mortgages. Of course banks will do their best to lend more money, it’s in their interest (excuse the pun). However, once bad debts start denting profits they change their policies.

4) What you made yesterday means nothing today. Prices can move in two directions and past profits aren't guarantees of future gains.

The bottom line is the figures don’t add up. Just as with any other bubble such as dot com, tulips, South Sea etc eventually fundamentals will kick in. If anyone here can disprove this with actual numbers I’d be amazed!

leftieM

I had posted something else but life's too short to carry on with this thread. I hope you'll remember that money, although nice to have, isn't all that matters and you're achievements are measured by more than your bank balance. If you are right Talksalot, I hope you'll have the depth of character to feel compassion for the people who will be left homeless rather than simply celebrating the knowledge that you were right all along.

bakkah

The_Equalizer wrote:

Just as with any other bubble such as dot com, tulips, South Sea etc eventually fundamentals will kick in. If anyone here can disprove this with actual numbers I’d be amazed!

You just need to look at a graph of historical house prices to see where its going next, maybe i shouldn't sell that paraglider after all..

The_Equalizer_3

bakkah wrote:

You just need to look at a graph of historical house prices to see where its going next, maybe i shouldn't sell that paraglider after all..

I presume that you're having a laugh, or are just agreeing with me!

I want a few more comments about so-and-so estate agent said it's worth £500k, so it must be true - just look at their website. Or, Northern Irish Allied Banks says prices will go up forever so buy now or you'll be renting until you die. Helen Carson (who knocks out the Tele's property articles) doesn't do anything other than telephone these types for a few quotes and then knocks out the odd article. I've not once seen any real objective, in-depth analysis from her. I'd truly love to take her to task over this.

Odd as it may seem, but hasn't it occurred to most on this board that all of them 'make' their living from this?

bakkah

The_Equalizer wrote:

I presume that you're having a laugh, or are just agreeing with me!

Both! The paraglider stops you going splat

Edit: Sorry should add something constructive as you asked, a local estate agent in North Down told me last year that I should be sinking all my money into property as it was a sure fire way on making money obviously I wouldn't take advice from the likes but to date hes been proven true, might be worth a visit to him to see if he is still singing this tune. I was in by the same agents having a nose the other day and there was a girl visibly disturbed that there were no houses available almost begging to get first dibs on anything that comes up, was quite sad