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The upcoming Global Mega-Boom

Crunching everything from fertility rates to schooling levels and the rule of law, HSBC predicts that the world's economic output will triple again by 2050, provided the major states can avoid conflict - trade wars, or worse - and defeat the Malthusian threat of food and water limits. Growth will rise to 3pc on average, up from 2pc over the last decade.


In a sweeping report entitled "The World in 2050", the bank said China would snatch the top slot as expected, but only narrowly. China at $24.6 trillion (constant 2000 dollars) and the US at $22.3 trillion will together tower over the global economy in bipolar condominium - or simply the G2 - with India at $8.2 trillion far behind in third slot, and parts of Europe slithering into oblivion.


Turkey will vault past Russia, settling an Ottoman score. Egypt, Malaysia and Indonesia will all move into the top 20. Muslim societies may start to reassert an economic clout unseen since the late Caliphate. Yet Brazil may disappoint again, stalling at 7th place in 2050 as its birthrate slows sharply and bad schools exact their toll.


The surprise is how well the Anglo-Saxon states hold up under HSBC's model, which is based on the theoretical work of Harvard professor Robert Barro.

America's high fertility rate (2.1) will allow it too keep adding manpower long after China's workforce has begun to contract in 2020s and as even India starts to age in the 2040s.


An eightfold jump in the per capita income of China and India will keep growth brisk despite demographic headwinds, but they will not come to close to matching US living standards. Americans will be three times richer than the Chinese in 2050.


Britain at $3.6 trillion also fares well, slipping one rank to sixth place but pulling far ahead of Italy and France, and almost displacing Germany as Europe's biggest economy. This is chiefly due to the UK's healthy fertility rate (1.9), although sceptics might question whether a birthrate inflated by the EU's highest share of unmarried teenager mothers is a good foundation for prosperity.


The low fertility of Korea (1.1), Singapore (1.2) Germany (1.3), Poland (1.3), Italy (1.4), Spain (1.4) and Russia (1.4), more or less dooms these countries to aging crises and population decline unless they open the floodgates to immigration.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/8239707/HSBC-sees-China-and-America-leading-global-mega-boom.html

More Excellent News. :beer:
Unless you're Germany.... Or Korea..... Or Japan..... Where population decline will stuff their economies.
“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.

Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”

-- President John F. Kennedy”

Comments

  • Graham_Devon
    Graham_Devon Posts: 58,560 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    40 year away Hamish.

    Get a grip.
  • 40 year away Hamish.

    Get a grip.

    Not 40 years away Graham....

    "the world's economic output will triple again by 2050"

    40 or so years of boom times ahead to get us there though.
    “The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.

    Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”

    -- President John F. Kennedy”
  • Kohoutek
    Kohoutek Posts: 2,861 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 1,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    edited 5 January 2011 at 10:08PM
    More Excellent News. :beer:

    This is news?
    HSBC's model, which is based on the theoretical work of Harvard professor Robert Barro.
    provided the major states can..defeat...food and water limits
  • Graham_Devon
    Graham_Devon Posts: 58,560 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    Not 40 years away Graham....

    "the world's economic output will triple again by 2050"

    40 or so years of boom times ahead to get us there though.

    No.

    Wrong.

    Could have a major boom over 10 years, and !!!!!! for 30.

    You'll probably be more concerned with your catheter bag being near full than house prices in 2050 anyway.
  • Malcolm.
    Malcolm. Posts: 1,079 Forumite
    As per the weather. It's difficult to correctly predict next week, nevermind the next 40 years.
  • Graham_Devon
    Graham_Devon Posts: 58,560 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    Malcolm. wrote: »
    As per the weather. It's difficult to correctly predict next week, nevermind the next 40 years.

    Mighty strange how these people couldnt predict just one year in advance in 2006.

    But 40? Wayhey, excellent news. Tissues all round.
  • Degenerate
    Degenerate Posts: 2,166 Forumite
    Mighty strange how these people couldnt predict just one year in advance in 2006.

    But 40? Wayhey, excellent news. Tissues all round.

    Actually there is a logic to it. Demographics trends can be clearly measured and extrapolated over decades-long timescales. It's hardly contentious to say that Japan already faces an ageing crisis, or that the one-child policy has stored up an even bigger one for China.

    Long term it's these sorts of fundamentals that underpin economic perfomance. It's harder to predict what will happen next year because shorter term performance is more beholden to unpredictable events, but that's just noise on the longer-scale graph.
  • N1AK
    N1AK Posts: 2,903 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 1,000 Posts
    No.

    Wrong.

    Could have a major boom over 10 years, and !!!!!! for 30.

    You'll probably be more concerned with your catheter bag being near full than house prices in 2050 anyway.

    40 years isn't all that long given expected lifetimes etc

    Personally I found a number of considerations quite interesting. I doubt events will happen as they expect (because they so rarely do). 2050 from now is the same as now from 1970 after all.
    Having a signature removed for mentioning the removal of a previous signature. Blackwhite bellyfeel double plus good...
  • DaddyBear
    DaddyBear Posts: 1,208 Forumite
    I'm confused as to how an army of chav offspring to single mothers on benefits is going to boost our economy, maybe we're going to use them as fuel.
  • Wheezy_2
    Wheezy_2 Posts: 1,879 Forumite
    This report talks a lot about fertility rates being the foundation for future prosperity.
    Let's have a look at fertility rates then:
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:TFR_vs_PPP_2009.svg

    Top 10 : Ethiopia, Burkina Faso, Congo, Angola, Niger, Somalia...etc...


    And i have no idea where that smiley in the link came from!
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