December Nationwide MoM +0.4%

DervProf

chucky wrote: »

i'd give up now Really, his response says it all - the facts are presented but does a runner when he gets discredited once again.

You'd never do a runner, would you chucky ?

chucky

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Can't win here today, can you.

Even saving £2 on a tank of fuel is poo poo'd as sillyness.

depends on how far you have to drive and how long you have to wait in these queues all for £2...

with queues "snaking down the road" i'd rather not worry about the £2

ess0two

Joeskeppi wrote: »

Didn't you buy an entire tanker? Could have saved a fiver!

I've just aquired a mad max style fuel tanker and guarded compound to store it in.
Have spent the fiver saved on a kebab.

Batchy

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Local NHS trust is looking at a 3 year pay freeze from April 2011. On top of that all grading increments could be frozen too.

In high inflationary times the squeeze has yet to start.

Lets just get this straight, the private sector has had this problem for the last 2-3 years...

Now because the public sector are getting their turn all hell is gonna break loose... really??

its their turn... and more of the same will be dished out that we had over 2009/10, except the public sector is smaller than the private sector so this time it wont be as bad!

Batchy

deisel lovers better off with the red stuff... lol

Really2

Generali wrote: »

The year to Sept 2009 was +0.01%. The year to Aug 1994 was -0.02%.

The smallest calendar year change since 1991 was 1994, up 1.3%.

The biggest increase in a year was the year to Jan 2003, up 26.5%
The biggest increase in a calendar year was 2002, up 25.3%.

The biggest decrease in a calendar year was 2008, down 15.9%.
The biggest decrease in a year was the year to Feb 2009, down 17.6%.

All those are in nominal terms. Clearly the falls in real terms in the early 90s would be far higher as inflation was running at or about double figures I think but I'm too lazy adjust for inflation right now.

Cheers for that Gen, so as years go 2010 was one of the least volatile in the last 20 years looking at that.

N1AK

Really2 wrote: »

Lost me on that one? So the analogy was irrlevent?

The analogy was that looking at something at two discrete points gives you some information, but obviously leaves out a large amount of information about what happened at all the other data-points not sampled. If you can't see how that is relevant it's your shortcoming not Graham's.

To give a more direct example:

House prices drop 10% in January, remain unchanged in Feb-Sept, and then increase by 3% per month Oct-Dec. YoY house prices are slightly down, yet most people would believe that due to the recent MoM increases that house prices were increasing rapidly.

As to government intervention in housing. There hasn't been much recently. That said the government is still paying off mortgages to help people to avoid repossession, has delayed cost saving measures so they haven't come in yet, and the BoE is keeping interest rates low contrary to its claims to want to keep inflation low.

I'm not saying the above are bad policies, although I do have an opinion on them.

Really2

N1AK wrote: »

If you can't see how that is relevant it's your shortcoming not Graham's.

Lets look at it again shall we?

Graham_Devon wrote: »

YOY has been fairly stagnant.

But the 12 datapoints in between haven't.

A bit like saying a year in business has been pretty static because you started the year ok and ended it ok.

However, that ignores the business's near bankrupcy in July and 20 staff laid off to survive. Only reason you didn't go bankrupt was because of government intervention. But profit margins look the same YOY, so nothing has changed.

Can you point out the bits I am ignoring this year? Stagnation cant be looked at as a month by month data , but again even looking at that prices went up 2.5% and down 2.1% in the whole year is that volatile????

So saying bailouts etc were relevent? I have looked at the monthly data also what have I missed in fairly stagnant.

Not my shortcoming at all, I am not missing anything or focusing on only one thing. The year has been fairly stagnant and nearly 20 years of info backs that up.
Can you point out the volatility in the 12 months data?

chucky

N1AK wrote: »

If you can't see how that is relevant it's your shortcoming not Graham's.

To give a more direct example:

House prices drop 10% in January, remain unchanged in Feb-Sept, and then increase by 3% per month Oct-Dec. YoY house prices are slightly down, yet most people would believe that due to the recent MoM increases that house prices were increasing rapidly.

oh dear, yet another one that doesn't understand the definition of stagnation...