guesses and to when the interest rate will rise

The_White_Horse

I think by the end of 2011 it will have risen to about 1.5% and to 2.5% by the end of 2012.

System

Nowhere near outrageous enough for an MSE prediction.

I predict eleventybillion % by Feb 2010.

Euphoria1z

i think by the start of 2012 it will have risen to 0.75% and to 1.5% by the end of 2013.

Generali

No idea TBH. To be fair the MPC agree with me with a 3 way split in their vote between keep the same, raise rates and increase QE.

Ooh, Happy Christmas BTW. It's Christmas here now.

mbga9pgf

mbga's range 0.5-1% by December 2011, 0.75-1.5% 2012.

Well, according to UK swap rates.

If you go on the ONS website, the M4 stats and money velocity stats tell a tale.
I reckon we will face a "shot across the bows" rise in feb-march, then static rates for around 6-12 months before a second rise.

Currency ranges? pound vs euro back to around 1.25 by christmas, pound $ back to 1.70-175 by next christmas off the back of speculation of further rate rises.

We wont see normalised rates until past 2014, (>3.5% in my book) as the aftershocks of SLS will still be felt.

I think the BOE are sending out messages about rates as they are concerned about 1 metric. That being the % of mortgages on standard variable. I think they are starting to get quite concerned; one way to boost re-mortgage activity (onto more punitive fixed rates and therefore increased bank profits to pay back SLS) is to put the frighteners on those with big mortgages. Like me.

Graham_Devon

My guess is that we will all be surprised.

Euphoria1z

is there a minimum/maximum the BOE can raise/lower rates by?

i.e is the minimum increase/decrease 0.25% or can it be 0.10%?

Thrugelmir

mbga9pgf wrote: »

I think they are starting to get quite concerned; one way to boost re-mortgage activity (onto more punitive fixed rates and therefore increased bank profits to pay back SLS) is to put the frighteners on those with big mortgages. Like me.

Only certain lenders are affected by the SLS. They would much prefer that a customer remortgages elsewhere than charge punitive fixed rates and potentially incur a default. Capital redemptions will enable the lenders (RBS and HBOS in particularly) to repay the SLS earlier than expected.

StevieJ

Bull by the horns, or Mr Ed by the mane, up to 100% on the 12th of Never.

Kenny4315

The_White_Horse wrote: »

I think by the end of 2011 it will have risen to about 1.5% and to 2.5% by the end of 2012.

I think that sounds about right.

des_cartes

The_White_Horse wrote: »

I think by the end of 2011 it will have risen to about 1.5% and to 2.5% by the end of 2012.

Depends on inflation. If inflation expectations become embedded and/or the rest of the world believes the boe have totally lost any credibility in their efforts to hit the 2% cpi target then internal wage pressure and/or external investor pressure will force their hand. With CPI heading towards 5% next year it's either act soon and keep control or act later and greater when they have no choice.