Interest rate will go up in new year

System

FTBFun wrote: »

Fair enough.

BTW I like the fact i'm being labelled as a bull now. Do I get a special medal?

Everyone's a bull if you don't agree with a strict set of rules and principles. Doesn't really have much to do with prices tbh.

markharding557

chucky wrote: »

if this is all true... it would mean that:

Mortgage Payment 2007 = £1,000
Mortgage Payment 2010 = £400
Mortgage Payment 2012 = £600

can someone explain why people can't afford the mortgage in a couple of years time if they were paying £400 more a few years ago?

There are quote a few people who didn't have a mortgage a few yaers ago.
These are the ones who will be at the most risk

chucky

markharding557 wrote: »

There are quote a few people who didn't have a mortgage a few yaers ago.
These are the ones who will be at the most risk

yes - especially if they took BR + 4%.

with low mortgage approvals i'm not sure how many that would be though.

purch

Do I get a special medal?

No, you get a target stuck to your chest :eek:

gagahouse

Dec 2011 mkt expectations are for 1.5% base
http://www.euronext.com/trader/summarizedmarketderivatives/regulardetail-21422-EN.html?contractType=9&idMaturity=1306879200000&mnemo=L&selectedMepDerivative=7

Dec 2012 expectation is for 2.5% base
http://www.euronext.com/trader/summarizedmarketderivatives/regulardetail-21422-EN.html?contractType=9&idMaturity=1306879200000&mnemo=L&selectedMepDerivative=7

Sentiment for higher rather than lower rates turned near end of October - make of it what you will, assuming margins are maintained I don't see armageddon from a 2.5% base by end of dec 2012

the above is just the price of money, the supply of credit will be more important in the short term for house prices

edit: links default to june 2011 - just pick dec 2011 and dec 2012 nect to delivery top right corner

Pimperne1

To be honest, anyone whose circumstances haven't changed much since the interest rate was 5% should easily be able to cope with an increase of up to, say, 3%. Accepting that the banks are currently profiteering with the difference between the base rate and the SVR anyone who didn't factor in a bit of scrimping and scraping when they decided to buy a house shouldn't really be a homeowner. I guess about 1m homes have sold since the IRs were 5% so that is a relatively small proportion of the market - bit of a storm in a teacup this imho.

Really2

gagahouse wrote: »

Sentiment for higher rather than lower rates turned near end of October - make of it what you will,

TBH My sentiments were rates would be higher not lower after march 2008.

Generali

The latest Bank of England MPC minutes are out:

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/minutes/mpc/pdf/2010/mpc1012.pdf

There's a lot of blah in there, albeit quite interesting blah.

To cut to the chase however, Posen voted for an increase in QE of £50,000,000,000 (perhaps less than last time? can't remember) and Sentance voted for a rate increase to 0.75% with no change to QE. The other 7 voted for the status quo.

One thing stood out for me which is that they see CPI going as high as 4% next year before dropping back.

Apart from that the report (and also the report from the BoE's agents also rleased today) are slightly positive on manufacturing in the UK in general, very positive on manufacturing exports from the UK and mildly pessamistic on the UK service economy. Good news for lift manufacturers, bad news for lift operators.

purch

One thing stood out for me which is that they see CPI going as high as 4% next year before dropping back

Oh good.

A few hundred more ranting posts to look forward to. :eek:

My new year resolution might be to read them all, and not make any comment............but then again :cool:

chucky

Generali wrote: »

One thing stood out for me which is that they see CPI going as high as 4% next year before dropping back.

cue the silver and gold rampers creating their various alternative user id's to spam the forum