House price reality

macaque_2

There has been some interesting posts over the past few days. The Ghoul has been urging people to throw themselves on the barbed wire of shared ownership. Mr Sibley has declared the crash to be a non event. Even Mr Fox, a self confessed bear, has thrown in the towel.

So what happened to the crash? The answer is that we are in it...... up to our necks.

The best indicator of a market crash is when people stop buying.

The lending figures are the lowest for October since the CML started taking monthly readings in 2002. Loans to first time buyers, who are a key driver of growth in the housing market, declined 17% year-on-year and 9% month-on-month to £2 billion.
http://www.24dash.com/news/housing/2010-12-10-Home-loans-down-12-year-on-year-Council-of-Mortgage-Lenders

The term 'market value' refers to a price at which willing buyers trade with willing sellers. There are no willing buyers today? That can mean only one thing for prices.

Simiam Macaque ADHD

nearlyrich

I know several people who are in the process of buying a house...willingly too.

Sibley

To be fair people can only comment on what they see.
As you know my house is near Maidstone in Kent.

Property prices have not changed since 2007.
My best friend just sold a manky place in Ealing London (2 bed) for nearly £300k. It was on the market only a short while.

I do see houses on the market a while but it seems the sellers have the attitude if it sells it sells and if not no problem. We will stay put.

Take my house for example. I would sell if the price was right. Otherwise keep it rented out. No big deal. I have a figure in mind that I want for my house. It makes no difference to me what monthly figures say. Even if prices went down 10% I could just stay as I am now and wait until they rose again.

Saying that I expect by June next year all these drops will be wiped out. People just don't want to sell now. Buyers can't force somebody to drop the price no matter what they say.

Loughton_Monkey

macaque wrote: »

There has been some interesting posts over the past few days.

.....yawn.......
.....zzzzzz...........

THE_GHOULISH_CODPIECE

Loughton_Monkey wrote: »

.....yawn.......
.....zzzzzz...........

Fascinating contribution.

For the record all the reported indexes bare no correlation to what I, and my friendly local EA are witnessing in my area.

doire_2

Sibley wrote: »

To be fair people can only comment on what they see.
As you know my house is near Maidstone in Kent.

Property prices have not changed since 2007.
My best friend just sold a manky place in Ealing London (2 bed) for nearly £300k. It was on the market only a short while.

I do see houses on the market a while but it seems the sellers have the attitude if it sells it sells and if not no problem. We will stay put.

Take my house for example. I would sell if the price was right. Otherwise keep it rented out. No big deal. I have a figure in mind that I want for my house. It makes no difference to me what monthly figures say. Even if prices went down 10% I could just stay as I am now and wait until they rose again.

Saying that I expect by June next year all these drops will be wiped out. People just don't want to sell now. Buyers can't force somebody to drop the price no matter what they say.

OK Sibley you keep saying prices will rise next year but you haven't provided any reason why? So come on tell us.

doire_2

THE_GHOULISH_CODPIECE wrote: »

Fascinating contribution.

For the record all the reported indexes bare no correlation to what I, and my friendly local EA are witnessing in my area.

Not as fascinating as your post on Rightmove asking prices

System

I wonder why there's no willing buyers today yet there were more than you can shake a stick at when prices were higher.

Oh that's right, no one is allowed a mortgage anymore.

There's tons of willing buyers, they just don't have the means because banks treat FTBers like scumbags and as far as they're concerned have less risky people to lend money to first.

Batchy

I think house prices are struggling.

But I also think the market is swung by many buyers trying to snap up the repossessions.
They then try to pass on that 'price thought' to the other vendors.

However, buying repossessions is a risky business and there will always be a risk discount factor included. I would say on average this is about 20-30%

I have this week spend many hours discussion houses with a friend of mine.

He wants a 2-3 bed semi or terraced, with plenty of space, and a garage suitable for a car, all for around 120k

Now, im not that experienced in the market. But, his biggest problem is going to be the SIZE of the garage he wants, he needs it to be big enough to park a car in (or build a kit car). He also has a motorbike.

Now there will be plenty of houses in his category but 90% will instantly be stuck off the list as the garage has already been converted or is too narrow.

Then the one that have been discounted already and are cheap are no longer on the list, so basically, it could take him a while to find his perfect house that he has been waiting for. At a bargain price.

But he wont buy one until it ticks all the boxes, else it wont fulfill his ambitions.

Orpheo

THE_GHOULISH_CODPIECE wrote: »

Fascinating contribution.

For the record all the reported indexes bare no correlation to what I, and my friendly local EA are witnessing in my area.

I think you should get a GP to witness your area, or at least a dermatologist.

Bangkok-Dave

OK Sibley you keep saying prices will rise next year but you haven't provided any reason why? So come on tell us.

Perfect answer.

I wonder why there's no willing buyers today yet there were more than you can shake a stick at when prices were higher.

Oh that's right, no one is allowed a mortgage anymore.

There's tons of willing buyers, they just don't have the means because banks treat FTBers like scumbags and as far as they're concerned have less risky people to lend money to first.

Once this changes it will be business as usual in the housing market. There is no point selling your house now. The markets shot.
When lending gets sorted out it will be a free for all. Prices will go up. FTB's will buy when they can get money. Dropping the price won't get them into a home.