House prices....

wanchai_2

A.L.D.A wrote: »

But what percentage of NI housing stock is actually owned by NAMA? A good portion of NAMA is likely to be to be grossly over valued development sites and hopefully when sold off will help keep future overall construction costs of new build down.

Also was listening to Autumn statement and projected growth rates. RoI economy is likely to out perform UKs in the years ahead.

Influence from the South could be a mixed bag.

I agree.

Out of interest, what mixed bag of influences will the ROI have, do you think? I think that their economy will recover first, merely because their govt admitted that there was a crisis sooner, and they are further along the road of cuts etc. But there is a school of thought that they will have lost decades similar to Japan. Anyhoo, I can't see Southern Canny McSavvy 'investors' propping up the NI market - they've been burnt badly.

saverbuyer wrote: »

I see the first time buyer stamp duty exemption will end in March 2012 as planned. Confirmed in the Autumn Report.

Even more downward pressure.

As a potential FTB, I welcome the scrapping of this exemption - it's just one more thing propping up the market. I'll happily pay £1,500 stamp duty if I save ££££s more on the price of a house!!! :cool:

wanchai_2

qwert_yuiop wrote: »

'Cause they know what it's worth, and they're not settling for a penny less. Meanwhile the house is gently rotting away, the garage door is hanging off and someone's broken a window. Just sell the brute, lads.

Rates bill? £1340 if it's the same as mine. Would that not concentrate your mind?

:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:

qwert_yuiop

x12yhp wrote: »

Until the cost of the debt rises to it's real level.

What's that mean?

A.L.D.A

Removing the exemption is good. I don't think it is that big a factor unless you are paying over £250,000 and it is then 3%, but how many first time buyers are in that category? Below £125,000 you don't pay stamp duty anyway. Below £250,000 it is 1%

saverbuyer

qwert_yuiop wrote: »

What's that mean?

By historical standards it is really cheap to borrow money now. Even after the credit crunch.

Historically interest rates are nearer 8%.

Interest rates are currently at 0.5%. Lowest in history. Ever.

saverbuyer

A.L.D.A wrote: »

Removing the exemption is good. I don't think it is that big a factor unless you are paying over £250,000 and it is then 3%, but how many first time buyers are in that category? Below £125,000 you don't pay stamp duty anyway. Below £250,000 it is 1%

I think it will put FTBs firmly in the sub 125K bracket. Further reducing averages and probably new build semi prices.

A.L.D.A

wanchai wrote: »

I agree.

Out of interest, what mixed bag of influences will the ROI have, do you think? I think that their economy will recover first, merely because their govt admitted that there was a crisis sooner, and they are further along the road of cuts etc. But there is a school of thought that they will have lost decades similar to Japan. Anyhoo, I can't see Southern Canny McSavvy 'investors' propping up the NI market - they've been burnt badly.

:cool:

The South is not going down the Japan route.

Their fortunes are tied up with the Euro. Assuming sense prevails in the Eurozone and eventually they get their act in order, I would see fairly steady growth in RoI. The government is about 30% of GDP (from memory so welcome correction). The country is in a position similar to the mid 80s and demographics and many tax structures are favourable. As it recovers people here have more employment opportunities on the other side of the border. As for investing here heaven only knows, the memory of people is only as long as the next 'investment opportunity'. Improvements there will help the economy here.

If sense does not return in Euroland, it will lead to a weaker Euro or breakup. Either way may make the Irish economy a lot more competitive as the currency (whatever currency) will initially be a lot weaker.

qwert_yuiop

saverbuyer wrote: »

By historical standards it is really cheap to borrow money now. Even after the credit crunch.

Historically interest rates are nearer 8%.

Interest rates are currently at 0.5%. Lowest in history. Ever.

Good point, but probably likely to say low for a while, with QE2 possible. But anything seems to be plausible in the modern world.

A.L.D.A

saverbuyer wrote: »

I think it will put FTBs firmly in the sub 125K bracket. Further reducing averages and probably new build semi prices.

Say someone is thinking of buying a house for £150,000 do you think the £1,500 stamp duty is going to make that much difference?

Much more important if you are buying one at £260,000 as the difference in tax between that and £249,999 is about £5,300.

saverbuyer

qwert_yuiop wrote: »

Good point, but probably likely to say low for a while, with QE2 possible. But anything seems to be plausible in the modern world.

QE actually causes inflation resulting in a greater chance of interest rate rises.