MSE News: Hometrack points to further house price falls

This is the discussion thread for the following MSE News Story:

"Values fell for the fifth straight month in November as demand from buyers dropped at its fastest pace for two years ..."

Replies

  • Here we go again... another house price indicator?

    Halifax and Nationwide have been a little quiet recently too.

    Word on the street is that there is to be a price bounce next year! hooray! ugh!

    These monthly bulletins were originally designed to talk up the market but really have no value as they're written to soften and display the better market information (for sellers and estate agents/banks).

    You need to review it 3 monthly and take particular note of the land registry true figures of sales.
  • I predicted the early 2010 bounce on here in spring 09 - just common sense really.
    I also said we could see falls after summer 2010 - again just common sense.

    I expect a coinsiderable bounce in spring 2011. For one just about everyone I know with a mortgage is considerably better off. The forthcomming cuts are spread over 4 years, to take us back to 2007 Govt spending levels so in reality it will have no adverse effect on the bulk of us. Furthermore, Gov't workers will find new employment in the growing public sector.

    See beyond the Daily Wail headlines.........
  • brit1234brit1234 Forumite
    5.4K Posts
    rickbonar wrote: »
    Here we go again... another house price indicator?

    Halifax and Nationwide have been a little quiet recently too.

    Thats because they are out this week and next, ie every month.

    :rotfl:
    rickbonar wrote: »
    Word on the street is that there is to be a price bounce next year! hooray! ugh!

    Like the September bounce which never occurred. No price falls are far more likely. After all house prices are way above traditional values and still a deeply and unsustainably inflated bubble.
    rickbonar wrote: »
    These monthly bulletins were originally designed to talk up the market but really have no value as they're written to soften and display the better market information (for sellers and estate agents/banks).

    You need to review it 3 monthly and take particular note of the land registry true figures of sales.

    Every one knows there is about a 4-5 month lag on land registry values. Thats why the other surveys are important.

    Hometrack and right move give a useful indicator to sellers sentiment ie asking prices. Which at the moment is good as they have all been showing continuing monthly falls
    :exclamatiScams - Shared Equity, Shared Ownership, Newbuy, Firstbuy and Help to Buy.

    Save our Savers
  • brit1234brit1234 Forumite
    5.4K Posts
    Conrad wrote: »
    I expect a coinsiderable bounce in spring 2011. For one just about everyone I know with a mortgage is considerably better off. The forthcomming cuts are spread over 4 years, to take us back to 2007 Govt spending levels so in reality it will have no adverse effect on the bulk of us. Furthermore, Gov't workers will find new employment in the growing public sector.

    Economically there is not enough funds to support rising prices on these already overvalued homes. The only way for home prices is down to match the sensible lending criteria we have again.

    Higher inflation in the form of VAT rises, continued food, transport and energy costs will bite as wages are held frozen.

    There may be asking price rises in January but I predict sales values will be down.
    Conrad wrote: »
    See beyond the Daily Wail headlines.........

    I agree, they are a bit simplistic but still better than the Daily Express which is continually ramping house prices despite economic fundamentals.

    I clearly predict we will see a year of newspaper headlines all next year showing continuing price falls.

    However this is good news as we all know house prices are overvalued and lower prices will help future generations.
    :exclamatiScams - Shared Equity, Shared Ownership, Newbuy, Firstbuy and Help to Buy.

    Save our Savers
  • anyone know what the betting and spread betting rates for house price rises/falls for next year?
  • The Irish bailout may cause a bounce too.
  • brit1234brit1234 Forumite
    5.4K Posts
    rickbonar wrote: »
    The Irish bailout may cause a bounce too.

    I doubt it especially after the bad way it was carried out ie infighting and long period. If anything we are more likely to see the contagion to the rest of Europe Spain, Portugal, Belgium and Greece yet again.

    Also after Ireland & Spain, Britain has the next biggest property bubble and it is yet to deflate like the others till now.

    Remember uncertainty in Ireland will remain to after the election in January.
    :exclamatiScams - Shared Equity, Shared Ownership, Newbuy, Firstbuy and Help to Buy.

    Save our Savers
  • do you think the bank of england should put up the interest rates?
  • Yes interest rates should go up.

    At the moment reckless borrowers are being bailed out at the expense of prudent savers. Hardly fair at all especially with inflation well above interest rates.

    After all it was low interest rates over the last 12 years which were the significant part of causing the credit crunch.

    The low interest rates are just propping up the unhealthy housing bubble.
    :exclamatiScams - Shared Equity, Shared Ownership, Newbuy, Firstbuy and Help to Buy.

    Save our Savers
  • Well actually I agree.

    But I still maintain these monthly sales reports are purely geared to talk up the housing market.

    I think you are right on the unhealthy housing bubble & in fact it has much to answer for the whole banking crisis in the first place. Northern Rock was the first flagpoint that the public had of any inkling but was critical symptom of something that had gone very wrong.
    This reverberated back to America and the house of cards started to falter.

    I think the house prices are overly inflated ( I would go as far as to say by as much as double their true values& some would say more) and the banks are still trying to do what they were prior - business as usual.
    Many sellers are simply holding out for their peak prices and not dropping, buyers simply do not have enough lending backing or support to buy at the frankly well overpriced houses and what business there is consists largely of house owners playing musical chairs with their properties.

    Quantative easing must be doing something to our currency it may not be manifest to the public but it is eroding the value and you know savers and people with capital reserves are losing out big time.
    I think if they up the interest rates and it need only be slightly then I think this needs to happen so that the houses prices are shaken into a more realistic level.
    And give back a little more to the people that have saved hard which not so long ago the governments were encouraging us all to do, but what is the point when you break open your piggy banks after a lifetime of saving and investing and have less there than when you started eh?
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