Debate House Prices


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The spin is just not good enough these days

macaque_2
macaque_2 Posts: 2,439 Forumite
edited 27 November 2010 pm30 12:28PM in Debate House Prices & the Economy
House price fall 'nothing to be frightened about'
Well that little headline is certain to get the adrenalin flowing. They go onto say:
HOUSE prices in the West Country have dropped for the second month in succession – but the past 12 months still show a positive trend, figures released yesterday show.
In other words 'don't think about the future guys, lets look backwards to find comfort'. Then the author abandons all reason and logic:
"It is like being on a choppy sea – we are still slightly up on last year and my guess is that by the end of 2011 prices will be up or down 1 per cent."
Guess? Where is the rationale? That 'guess' has about as much credibility as Mystic Meg's prediction of the lottery numbers. And then things really go pear shaped:
with the vast majority of sales forced by necessity, such as death, divorce and repossession
In other words, current prices (which have probably not shown up in the stats yet) are being driven by forced sales.

Come on bulls, you are not even trying these days!

http://www.thisisexeter.co.uk/news/House-price-fall-frightened/article-2943957-detail/article.html

Comments

  • halight
    halight Posts: 3,629 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture Combo Breaker
    Well with the cut back and then you have the banks being tight with there lending, Pluss many sellers dont wont to drop the price of there house. Id say we are in for a rough ride over the next 12 months. Ill say down 1-2% my guess is as good as anybodys.

    By the way i hope that im wrong.

    Long term im bullish on house prices as we are just not building enough and i can not see that changeing anytime soon.
    :jYou can have everything you wont in lfe, If you only help enough other people to get what they wont.:j
  • A decent HPC needs about 80k-100k+ repo's per annum, the only weapon capable of delivering this is IR rises. As we can see even when inflation is well over target and stands to be for some time yet, there is zero action on IR rises.

    The more time that goes by the less I'm inclined to think there will be a hefty crash, the most likely outcome is prices falling in real terms, but not much 'nominally'.

    Which means FTBrs are going to have it tough unless they have wage inflation that stays way ahead of any house price inflation.
    Have owned outright since Sept 2009, however I'm of the firm belief that high prices are a cancer on society, they have sucked money out of the economy, handing it to banks who've squandered it.
  • Eric1
    Eric1 Posts: 490 Forumite
    halight wrote: »
    Long term im bullish on house prices as we are just not building enough and i can not see that changeing anytime soon.
    In the long term I'm thinking of retiring somewhere they are building enough.
    In the really long term I'm going to die :D
  • HAMISH_MCTAVISH
    HAMISH_MCTAVISH Posts: 28,592 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper Photogenic
    edited 27 November 2010 pm30 10:04PM
    AD9898 wrote: »
    The more time that goes by the less I'm inclined to think there will be a hefty crash, the most likely outcome is prices falling in real terms, but not much 'nominally'.

    You can lead a horse to water........

    And every now and again even the most stubborn mule will take a drink. :)

    Well done mate.
    Which means FTBrs are going to have it tough unless they have wage inflation that stays way ahead of any house price inflation.

    FTB's are already penalised by exorbitant margins, stupidly high deposits, mortgage rationing, record high rents already more than mortgage payments in 80% of the UK and still rising, negative real returns on their deposit savings, and building in the background is the fact that the biggest housing shortage in history is about to meet the biggest generation of FTB's in history....

    This "crash" has made it the worst time to be an FTB in the last 50 years or more.

    A couple of percent of wage inflation is the least of their problems.
    “The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.

    Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”

    -- President John F. Kennedy”
  • FTB's are already penalised by exorbitant margins, stupidly high deposits, mortgage rationing, record high rents already more than mortgage payments in 80% of the UK and still rising, negative real returns on their deposit savings, and building in the background is the fact that the biggest housing shortage in history is about to meet the biggest generation of FTB's in history....

    Yup, they certainly aint getting richer, could easily say poorer.

    And the housing market is scuppered without them.
  • ILW
    ILW Posts: 18,333 Forumite
    Does this mean that most people will start living in homes rather than investments?
This discussion has been closed.
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