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Portugal becomes the focus after Ireland bailout
Comments
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The real problem is that the euro has been managed in the interests of the Germans, and to hell with the weaker economies. At some point the Germans will have to realise that this was never an option, and now they need to dip their hands into their pockets. So far, all they've done is belly-ache about bailouts while borrowing at 3% and lending on at 6%.
We don't have to have another war do we."It will take, five, 10, 15 years to get back to where we need to be. But it's no longer the individual banks that are in the wrong, it's the banking industry as a whole." - Steven Cooper, head of personal and business banking at Barclays, talking to Martin Lewis0 -
Is that all? The UK's public sector net debt is 150% of GDP, and rising at 12 points a year.
Your percentage figure may well be correct, but it does not relate to the same debt basis as the percentage figure used in the article. The percentage figure mentioned in the article is not public sector net debt (which in your stated case is, I believe, unadjusted public sector net debt), it's central government debt. According to the OECD, total central government debt (as mentioned in the article), as a percentage of GDP, for Portugal was 81.1% in 2009 and in the UK it was 75.1%. These are the latest figures available.
Estimates for 2010 are 83.2% & 76.5% respectively.There is a pleasure in the pathless woods, There is a rapture on the lonely shore, There is society, where none intrudes, By the deep sea, and music in its roar: I love not man the less, but Nature more...0 -
worldtraveller wrote: »Your percentage figure may well be correct, but it does not relate to the same debt basis as the percentage figure used in the article. The percentage figure mentioned in the article is not public sector net debt (which in your stated case is, I believe, unadjusted public sector net debt), it's central government debt. According to the OECD, total central government debt (as mentioned in the article), as a percentage of GDP, for Portugal was 81.1% in 2009 and in the UK it was 75.1%. These are the latest figures available.
Estimates for 2010 are 83.2% & 76.5% respectively.
When deficits are around the 10% mark, those aren't hugely material differences for an investor.0 -
When deficits are around the 10% mark, those aren't hugely material differences for an investor.
I agree, but that wasn't my point. I was correcting the basis of the percentage figures used by pqrdef, which made it appear to be more like a 60% difference.There is a pleasure in the pathless woods, There is a rapture on the lonely shore, There is society, where none intrudes, By the deep sea, and music in its roar: I love not man the less, but Nature more...0 -
worldtraveller wrote: »I agree, but that wasn't my point. I was correcting the basis of the percentage figures used by pqrdef, which made it appear to be more like a 60% difference.
I guess it depends on what you call debt. Is it the money the Government has borrowed or do you include 'contingent liabilities' (e.g. liabilities of the Government owned banks that will probably never be called on) and liabilities such as civil service pensions (money that has never been borrowed as such but that are promises that will either need to be paid from somewhere or defaulted on and that aren't accounted for by the Government).0 -
Like I've said for long time, the hole that should never have been dug started a decade ago, many warnings were given from various knowledgeable sources, all were ignored through ignorance and greed, the hole kept being dug.
Fast forward to Autumn 2007, the greedy and ignorant suddenly realised that the hole they had dug was a catastrophe, with no way out, the way to put off the inevitable was to, ironically keep digging hoping for a miracle.
Unfortunately the 'bed rock' in 'the hole' is only now starting to be exposed, panic stricken and blindingly hoping to be saved they carry on scratching away in the hole.
The day is coming where no more digging can be done, at that point, the inevitable collapse will be upon us.
The banks and the politicians through greed, corruption and lies have all but ruined us.
Total agreement. You had to be right plonker not see what was ahead 10 years ago. Surely, I understand that folk bought on rising prices, I guess scared of being priced out. THe fact that Nu Labour, after the promises of not letting the house price market getting out of control again, pretty much sat back. Nice old bit of stamp duuty, a dollop of inheritance tax. However it got so out of hand. I am not saying that MPs gained from HPI, cough, cough.
Ireland I know very well. Even my mates there were astounded by the rises. A million Euro for a semi in Dublin? Only one got into btl. Was going to buy 5, he bought one. Costing him, I think he said, 700 ish euro a month even though it is rented out.
I may be annecdotal however, chatting to a friend recently in county Cork, he was telling me horror stories of the house price crash which is happening there. The same for friends in Spain.
Another self employed friend here in the UK is at breaking point. Misses, 2 kids and no work coming in. Tbh, he has suicidal thoughts, to me that is just awful.He spoke to me tonight, said that he was going out on his bike, hoping that a motorist would run him down so his family would get the life insurance.
Me and the good lady have a modest home without a mortgage. However, I do worry about others. In particular the young un`s in my family. Some have bought with eye watering mortgages.
Another point that strikes me is housing benefit. With the rise in house prices so that has to go up. Moer money from the coffers to pay that out.
I will refer you to the UK base rate. It is 0.5%, I say again, 0.5%. Does that tell you something, it does to me. It looks like we could be going down the same road as Japan.
I realy wonder what the true inflation figures are? We are over £1.30 a litre for petrol. I was astounded at the sudden sharp rise in food prices when shopping on Saturday. As far as what a pound will buy, I think my wife and myself have never been so poorly off for decades.
I do like a beer. Now nearly £3 a pint. I here it is a lot more in the South East.
I am also self employed, however it is boardering on the hopeless.
I really don`t think this is going away very soon. Hate be pessimistic, however I can not see we cannot see a soft landing. The toffs are back in. So the cycle begins again. Tories, the party of unemployment and boy, will it suck when the public workers get the boot. I have friends who are terrified over this. What about the non funded Government pensions?
If you have read this then well done but it is my little rant.0 -
So we're better at fudging the numbers? Persuade me there's a kind of public sector debt that's not central government debt really.worldtraveller wrote: »The percentage figure mentioned in the article is not public sector net debt (which in your stated case is, I believe, unadjusted public sector net debt), it's central government debt."It will take, five, 10, 15 years to get back to where we need to be. But it's no longer the individual banks that are in the wrong, it's the banking industry as a whole." - Steven Cooper, head of personal and business banking at Barclays, talking to Martin Lewis0 -
Credit rating agency Moody's cut Portugal's sovereign debt by one notch on Tuesday, saying it believed an incoming government would need to seek financing support from the European Union as a matter of urgency.
The cut in Portugal's long-term rating to Baa1 from A3 still leaves Moody's evaluation of its debt two notches higher than fellow agency Standard and Poor's but a notch below that of Fitch Ratings.
Moody's said the debt was still under negative review, with further downgrades dependent on Lisbon's ability to secure medium-term funding.
ReutersThere is a pleasure in the pathless woods, There is a rapture on the lonely shore, There is society, where none intrudes, By the deep sea, and music in its roar: I love not man the less, but Nature more...0 -
The yield on Portugal 12-month T-bills sold today jumped to 5.902% from 4.311% just three weeks ago, and on six-month bills to 5.117% from 2.984%.There is a pleasure in the pathless woods, There is a rapture on the lonely shore, There is society, where none intrudes, By the deep sea, and music in its roar: I love not man the less, but Nature more...0
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Portugal Finance Minister Fernando Teixeira dos Santos has stated in an article just published online in Jornal de Negocios that "it is necessary to resort to the financing mechanisms available within the European framework"
Jornal de NegociosThere is a pleasure in the pathless woods, There is a rapture on the lonely shore, There is society, where none intrudes, By the deep sea, and music in its roar: I love not man the less, but Nature more...0
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