mortgage repossessions continue to fall

lemonjelly

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11733556

a 5% drop on the previous quarter.

Looks like there will be less distressed sellers.

Either that, or the next wave is coming after the public services cull.

(take your pick, depending on your pov;))

The CML do express some concerns however, as high level arrears appears to be worsening, and there also appears to be more people with low level arrears. Mid level arrears is fairly stagnant. This has lead the CML to advise that repossessions could rise in coming months.

Interesting that lenders are increasing the amount of possessions claims they are making. Also interesting is that this is leading to a knock on of an increase in the amount of possessions claims being granted.

So. Thoughts?

ultrawomble

lemonjelly wrote: »

The CML do express some concerns however, as high level arrears appears to be worsening, and there also appears to be more people with low level arrears. Mid level arrears is fairly stagnant. This has lead the CML to advise that repossessions could rise in coming months.

Ah, so that means that some mid-level arrears have moved to high-level; their places have been filled by previous low-level arrears; and even more people are entering the low-level arrears element than are exiting either way.

ILW

It would be very surprising if repos had risen, with all time low rates and the government prepared to pay the interest it is surprising there are any at all.

doire_2

ILW wrote: »

It would be very surprising if repos had risen, with all time low rates and the government prepared to pay the interest it is surprising there are any at all.

While savers take the hit

IveSeenTheLight

ultrawomble wrote: »

Ah, so that means that some mid-level arrears have moved to high-level; their places have been filled by previous low-level arrears; and even more people are entering the low-level arrears element than are exiting either way.

It doesn;t read that way

The CML's figures showed that 176,100 mortgages had arrears of 2.5% or more of the outstanding balance. This was down slightly from 178,200 three months earlier and down from 203,800 a year earlier.

So overall its down.
176k from 178k from 203k

There have been 28,400 repossessions so far this year, which suggests that by the end of the year the number will be fewer than the CML's prediction of 39,000 homes to be repossessed this year, and certainly down from its previous forecast of 53,000.

Once again the reposessions are lower than the revised forecasts.
There have been threads on this before.

The report seems to suggest that the fall in reposessions may not continue and reflects the situation if interest rates rise or how long people are out of employment

Mr Coogan said that some, but not all, householders would be able to cope with any future increases in interest rates.
Many householders are concerned about the economic situation
"Many households are adept at adjusting their spending and prioritising their bills to manage their way successfully through periods of temporary difficulty," he said.
"But the capacity to do this will depend on individual circumstances, the extent to which income falls or mortgage costs rise, and how soon they can get back into full employment."

Here's the direct link to the CML report
http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/media/press/2769

some interesting points from the report

8,900 properties (representing 0.08% of mortgages) were taken into possession in the third quarter of 2010

The number of properties taken into possession was 27% lower than the 12,200 in the same period a year ago

In the first nine months of the year, there have been 28,400 cases of possession, trending below the CML's revised forecast of 39,000 for the year as a whole - and significantly lower than the original forecast of 53,000 properties

There was also a modest improvement in the number of mortgages in arrears

Really2

I believe these are the lowest figures for 2.5 years. (reported in local rag)

ess0two

doire wrote: »

While savers take the hit

Not that old chestnut.

Dan:_4

doire wrote: »

While savers take the hit

That's right mate, maybe now your understand your far better off with your money invested in property then sitting in the bank?

Graham_Devon

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

It doesn;t read that way

So overall its down.
176k from 178k from 203k

Two different figures.

Poster talks about 10% of more arrears (which have increased).

You are talking about arrears 2.5% or more, which have fallen slightly.

Anyway....

Not much is going to happen until interest rates go up, or the cost of living get's silly. If we let the cost of living get silly before putting interest rates up, the end result will be even worse.

Who knows which way it will go....but it's widely accepted we have a large percentage of what have been branded "zombie households". I..e just about getting by at todays low rates. We also had the report saying 47% of households had little or nothing left after paying the mortgage and bills.

So it's good at the moment....but then, it should be.

JonnyBravo

Graham_Devon wrote: »

We also had the report saying 47% of households had little or nothing left after paying the mortgage and bills.

I agree with everything you've said except this being important/especially relevant.

We don't know how many of these are trying to save or whether they're like a mate of mine who simply spends whatever he has. How many can cut back if needed?
How many were saving in the good times? I'll bet it wasn't massively higher.
We are a nation who spends and it seems saving isn't the norm no matter what the situation.

Graham_Devon

JonnyBravo wrote: »

I agree with everything you've said except this being important/especially relevant.

We don't know how many of these are trying to save or whether they're like a mate of mine who simply spends whatever he has. How many can cut back if needed?
How many were saving in the good times? I'll bet it wasn't massively higher.
We are a nation who spends and it seems saving isn't the norm no matter what the situation.

The report looked at household income, then subtracted mortgage and bill payments, then came up with the result.

So the bit's they could spend, would, I presume, come after the mortgage and bill payments.

However, like you say, it could be that they included bills such as Sky, which could include HD, with HD multiroom, and also 3 iphone mobile contracts, 2 car loans etc.

I think, however, it was mortgage, council tax, electric / gas, food, and petrol. Though I may be wrong.

Neither do we know what "little" constitutes, in terms of "have no, or little money left".