6X Joint salary mortgage AIP - is this normal?!

AndrewSmith

lisyloo wrote:

Whilst you may have a lot of experience and your anecdotal evidence is very interesting, I think it is pushing things a bit far to make a statement about there being a "slowdown" as if it were a fact based on just your anecdotal evidence when most of the published figures are saying otherwise.

I assure you that my observations of the property markets are more than simly 'anecdotal'.

The published figures you speak of are

a) Usually published or collated by an organisation that has much to gain from the outcome of that research falling in their favour.

b) Seem to mainly focus on London and the home counties.

There are 3 reasons that I can think of.
1) You are actually right and a genuine slow down is on it's way (I still don't think this justifies stating it as if it were fact).
2) It's temporary (like we saw in August last year).
3) It's seasonal variation.

1) Not stating it is a 'fact', merely an observation based on my professional dealings currently and the last 13 years in the housing market across the entire UK.

2) Possibly, but then anything that is not permenant is temporary, including the property crashes of the last decade. Temporary but having far reaching effects.

3) There is always a change in the housing market throughout the year, howere my observations are based on the trends I, and a large number of others dealing in property, have witnessed over the last year.

To be honest I don't pretend to know.
You may be correct.
I just don't see a basis for stating there is a slowdown from the official figures (and I've been hearing anecdotes about doom and gloom since 2001 when some people sold to rent

No one is 'pretending to know' any more than the so called impartial collators of the information published in statistical tables.

The whole point of discussion is other peoples opinions. It is my opinion and, as such, I stand by it.

Look at the other areas that will demonstrate which way the market is moving. For example there are far more properties for sale than buyers looking at the moment. We are about to see another rate rise, with 2 more expected minimum next year. Houses for sale are not moving as quickly as they were a year ago, especially above £200,000. As houses are not moving as quickly I would say that this justifies calling it a 'slowdown' in the market.

Do not confuse a slowing market with a declining market.

AndrewSmith

kenshaz wrote:

Latest News - The Market


04 October 06

• Lack of supply sustaining house prices rises - average prices up by 0.4% in September despite recent rate rise
• Monthly Statistics
  

ReportInvestor wrote:

I thought this was a perceptive analysis of the London effect by Richard Dyson

Both these related articles seem to agree with my own thoughts that the majority of growth seems to be localised to London & the Home counties, whilst the rest of the country is in fact experiencing supply outstripping demand, and a general 'slowdown' in the housing market.

Arch-Angel

AndrewSmith wrote:

Both these related articles seem to agree with my own thoughts that the majority of growth seems to be localised to London & the Home counties, whilst the rest of the country is in fact experiencing supply outstripping demand, and a general 'slowdown' in the housing market.

But hasn't it been argued in the past that the movement (in either direction) in the London/South East housing market tends to lead the way for the rest of the country?

I'm trying to remember where I've read this...no joy yet!

AndrewSmith

Possibly yes, but I'm referring to the here and now.

It is impossible to accurately predict what may happen in the future. For example if the general populous decide to max out credit cards on consumer durables again this year as they did last year (High street chains recorded record sales in Nov Dec 2005) then we can all look forward to the posibility of even more interest rate rises in addition to those already predicted.

Anyway, way off thread now. 6x income is, in my opinion, not wise. I have turned clients away asking for this amount of income stretch.

kenshaz

And while loan to income ratios are still relatively low by the standards of the last housing boom, these ratios ignore changes in consumer finance, which is now running at record levels. So consumers have more non-mortgage debt than they had a decade ago. And of course in a low inflation environment debt burdens will not erode in real terms at anything like the rate they have in the past.