CSR and 'new jobs' - the question that dare not speak its name

Charlton_King

Ok, so with the private sector also undergoing contraction as a result of the massive, public sector cuts, exactly where are the jobs going to come from over the next 3 - 4 years to bring economic growth back..?

Am I the only one pondering this and thinking that all the answers I've heard so far just don't make sense and amount, at best, to wishful thinking?

greenbubble

until the cost of living reduces anything any party attempts will result in failure.

green

Blacklight

Well there's about £30bn of new construction projects identified in the review. That's a start.

dori2o

greenbubble wrote: »

until the cost of living reduces anything any party attempts will result in failure.

green

I quite agree. One of the most sensible things to have done would have been to better regulate the energy companies, or, take energy back under state control.

The sooner people are able to pay a fair price to heat their homes and commute (whether on public transport or in cars) then the sooner people will have money to spend. More spent money means more profits for larger companies, high consumer confidence, an increase in tax collection, more money for the exchequer.

gagahouse

Yes wishful thinking in a globe about to go through trade protectionism and war by proxy through the currency markets. Let's say this doesn't happen, then gobal wage arbitrage will continue and real wages and demand for labour in developed economies will continue to shrink - partly why so many of these countries are in the !!!! in the first place. So I don't see where these 1.7m-2.2m jobs are going to come from.

http://www.safehaven.com/article/18457/bernanke-vs-kondratieff-round-qe2

This is a good article which gives you a a framework to understand the wider macro issues and why I think the way I do - I studied this over 20 years ago at uni and Kondratieff long wave cycles were one of the few things that really struck me as worth remembering.

QE2 will result in escalation of the global currency-trade war. Global currency-trade wars, currently on the rise, could wreak havoc on the global economy. Inflating the dollar is a beggar-thy-neighbor policy that is exporting U.S. deflation to our trading partners, and they are growing tired of it. U.S. trading partners have been pushed to the limit. Our trading partners will devalue their own currencies to defend against a cheap dollar that is exporting U.S. deflation to the world, triggering a vicious currency-trade war cycle.


Bernanke was impressive in Round 1, but he is the newcomer. He has an arsenal of monetary weapons, but Kondratieff has history on his side, and the largest amount of overcapacity funded with deflationary producing debt. It is not the popular position, but Kondratieff long wave deflation remains my pick for the outcome of Round QE2.
Watch the CPI, PPI and capacity utilization, which will tell us if Bernanke and QE2 can stop the global long wave deflation that is on the march. Here in late 2010, as Round QE2 gets underway, all the theories of inflation vs. deflation are on the table. Theory now becomes theater, and all the world is the stage.

greenbubble

thanks for the interesting link , very well written , i think i actually managed to follow most of it.

green

PasturesNew

Everybody's going to become an Avon Lady, or Betterware Catalogue Distributor.

This will be a growth time for MLM and network marketing ..... and £££s will be lost by buying startup kits and believing the guff.

Alan_Cross

I too can't see where this alleged boom in the private sector is supposed to come from - the housing market? No. Construction? No. Industrial exports? No. Financial services? Don't make me giggle...

... and I agree that all today's Tory gleefest will do is plunge the country further into the gloom to a level where it will remain for years. They have put the decisive stamp on a situation where people were hesitantly wondering whether to save or spend, with the accent already heavily on the former, and now there's no doubt about it. People will put up the shutters and hunker down for the duration.

Bravo Georgie boy. A brilliant and astute strategy which takes full account of the importance of perceptions.... not.

greenbubble

how many damn political shills does this forum contain ?

green

Alan_Cross

greenbubble wrote: »

how many damn political shills does this forum contain ?

green

A question which is difficult to answer, rather like the question "how many Sun and Mail 'readers' can you squeeze into a Benefits Thread Debate?".

Graham_Devon

greenbubble wrote: »

how many damn political shills does this forum contain ?

green

Too many.

All seem to stem from one party too. The party that condemns anything the other parties do, but don't seem to actually tell us what they would do.

As for the private sector jobs. Who knows. I don't really see how magically the private sector will just find placements from thin air, especially as everyone cuts back.

To put it into perspective, 400,000 private sector jobs, paying average wage (26K), would require the private sector to pay out £10,400,000,000 in one year alone, on wages alone.

I just can't see where the money is going to come from to enable private companies to take on those extra wage payouts, at a time when, most likely, growth is decling again.