U.K. Third-Quarter Growth Pace Halves to 0.5%, Institute Says

Spiv_2

Oct. 8 (Bloomberg) -- The U.K. economy’s pace of growth dropped by more than half in the third quarter, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research said.
Gross domestic product increased 0.5 percent in the three months through September, compared with a 1.2 percent gain in the quarter through June, the London-based group said in an e- mailed statement yesterday. Niesr’s clients include the Bank of England and the British Treasury.

The recovery may face headwinds as global economy cools and the government implements the biggest spending squeeze since World War II. “A growth rate of 0.5 percent is below our estimate of the economy’s underlying trend rate, and has come at a time when the economy is still below capacity,” Niesr said in the statement. “We do not expect output to pass its peak in early 2008 until 2012.”
Niesr produces its estimate each month after the Office for National Statistics publishes manufacturing data, which yesterday showed a 0.3 percent increase in August. The statistics office will publish its own first estimate of third- quarter growth on Oct. 26, six days after the government announces details of its planned spending cuts to tackle the record deficit.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aQ468hFuDPKU

BACKFRMTHEEDGE

Useless Tories:cool:

shaggydoo

BACKFRMTHEEDGE - it's so much easier to be in opposition, isn't it

Generali

If the GDP growth rate for Q3 is 0.5% then that's about 0.1% below trend which seems to vary between 2.2-2.5% for the UK.

To put it another way, an estimation of the 1st estimate of growth puts it the smallest measured gap below what you'd expect in normal times just after the end of the worst recession since the end of WWII.

1984ReturnsForReal_2

Generali wrote: »

If the GDP growth rate for Q3 is 0.5% then that's about 0.1% below trend which seems to vary between 2.2-2.5% for the UK.

To put it another way, an estimation of the 1st estimate of growth puts it the smallest measured gap below what you'd expect in normal times just after the end of the worst recession since the end of WWII.

If this 0.5% is a cumulative figure as far as I see it their must be negative figures involved which puts the UK back in recession.

I have more evidence to point towards this being the case. This is all based around the Conservatives easying attitude on a couple of key financial areas over the last 24hrs.

In fact, I would go so far as to say, they are in possession of negative figures. Be it quarterly, monthly or projected monthly/quarterly, they have them.

StevieJ

1984ReturnsForReal wrote: »

If this 0.5% is a cumulative figure as far as I see it their must be negative figures involved which puts the UK back in recession.

I have more evidence to point towards this being the case. This is all based around the Conservatives easying attitude on a couple of key financial areas over the last 24hrs.

In fact, I would go so far as to say, they are in possession of negative figures. Be it quarterly, monthly or projected monthly/quarterly, they have them.

What do you mean? why do you suggest it is cumulative?

1984ReturnsForReal_2

StevieJ wrote: »

What do you mean? why do you suggest it is cumulative?

Meaning the final month/s involved in any calculation is a negative figure.

But the initial month/s are positive & just outweigh the calculations.

Generali

1984ReturnsForReal wrote: »

If this 0.5% is a cumulative figure as far as I see it their must be negative figures involved which puts the UK back in recession.

I have more evidence to point towards this being the case. This is all based around the Conservatives easying attitude on a couple of key financial areas over the last 24hrs.

In fact, I would go so far as to say, they are in possession of negative figures. Be it quarterly, monthly or projected monthly/quarterly, they have them.

I'm sorry to say that I don't really understand the first paragraph of your post.

The 0.5% figure mentioned is an estimate of the change in GDP (output of the British economy) over the three month period 1/7 - 30/9/2010. It is cumulative in that it measures the cumulative change in output over that period.

Edit: So you mean growth over the three months was something like +1%, 0%, -0.5%. Makes sense and there would be ways to infer that sort of thing from Bank of England agents and others.

StevieJ

1984ReturnsForReal wrote: »

Meaning the final month/s involved in any calculation is a negative figure.

But the initial month/s are positive & just outweigh the calculations.

What do you mean by in any calculation? if you just mean the 0.5, how do you know what the breakdown is?

1984ReturnsForReal_2

StevieJ wrote: »

What do you mean by in any calculation? if you just mean the 0.5, how do you know what the breakdown is?

Maths, stats & I have never seen a financial graph with flatlines & 90 degree angles in it....

borntobefree

1984R4R - I think you may be right.

Both yesterday's and today's front pages of the FT have suggested massive backpedaling by the coalition on spending cuts (totally at odds with what they have being saying all week at conference). Today's article clearly suggested that many of the cuts won't happen in 2011, same yesterday.

Do you think we might go completely negative Q4?