the eurozone...

lemonjelly

I'm not exactly sure where it is on a map, but it is slowing down there apparently.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11396874

Could have a big impact on us, as I believe they are our main area for exports.

Does this mean we're doomed? Or is it a blip?

Ireland fell 1.2% by the way...

michaels

Hmm - I wonder if Eire had been outside the Euro whether they would have been Iceland or the UK?

Iceland is the obvious answer given the size of the bank blowup relative to the size of the economy but then of course they would not have had the benefit of the EUR interest rate, the extra govt bond support from being part of the EUR and the straight-jacket of the EUR exchange rate so their boom might have been smaller and been curtailed much sooner by increasing interest rates whilst a flexible currency would have allowed them to manage competitiveness more effectively. I guess we will never know how the counter-factual would have panned out.

blueboy43

michaels wrote: »

Hmm - I wonder if Eire had been outside the Euro whether they would have been Iceland or the UK?

Iceland is the obvious answer given the size of the bank blowup relative to the size of the economy but then of course they would not have had the benefit of the EUR interest rate, the extra govt bond support from being part of the EUR and the straight-jacket of the EUR exchange rate so their boom might have been smaller and been curtailed much sooner by increasing interest rates whilst a flexible currency would have allowed them to manage competitiveness more effectively. I guess we will never know how the counter-factual would have panned out.

I think the problem for Eire, Portugal, Greece, Spain et al is having Saxon bond rates with Anglo levels of inflation and productivity.

Euro chickens coming home to roost.

The solution is for them to cut domestic pay levels by between 20 and 40% or exit the Euro. No real alternative.

blueboy43

lemonjelly wrote: »

I'm not exactly sure where it is on a map, but it is slowing down there apparently.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11396874

Could have a big impact on us, as I believe they are our main area for exports.

Does this mean we're doomed? Or is it a blip?

Ireland fell 1.2% by the way...

Well look a yonder coming,
coming on down the track.
It's the double dip special
bringing the bad times back.

Thrugelmir

lemonjelly wrote: »

I'm not exactly sure where it is on a map, but it is slowing down there apparently.

Describes much of the UK still.

Without Eurozone activity. Hard for the UK to gain momentum to accelerate growth.

Fall in UK holidaymakers to Europe hasn't helped either. As people cut back on their spending.

Wookster

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Describes much of the UK still.

Without Eurozone activity. Hard for the UK to gain momentum to accelerate growth.

Fall in UK holidaymakers to Europe hasn't helped either. As people cut back on their spending.

I suspect the private sector has been through the worst of it but the public sector recession is only just starting, and will no doubt be much longer and more protracted.

Ireland is a prime example of why we need to cut now while we are still (theoretically) in control. Ireland's hand was forced and look where they are now.

Degenerate

Wookster wrote: »

Ireland is a prime example of why we need to cut now while we are still (theoretically) in control. Ireland's hand was forced and look where they are now.

Ireland's hand was forced by Euro membership, your comparison isn't valid.

blueboy43

Wookster wrote: »

I suspect the private sector has been through the worst of it but the public sector recession is only just starting, and will no doubt be much longer and more protracted.

Ireland is a prime example of why we need to cut now while we are still (theoretically) in control. Ireland's hand was forced and look where they are now.

Oh yes, the more Ireland cut, the higher the bond spreads go - reaching a high today.

Comparisons with Ireland are simply ludicrous, but at least gives the lie to the right wing dogma that deficits are akin to the family house-keeping budget - particularly when you are in the Euro.

I'm sure it will come to pass that the first Euro dogs to recover will be those that leave the Euro - just like the 1930's and the gold standard.

The UK did the right thing by under-writing the banks, whereas Ireland should have forced their bank bond holders to take a hair cut.

marklv

lemonjelly wrote: »

I'm not exactly sure where it is on a map, but it is slowing down there apparently.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11396874

Could have a big impact on us, as I believe they are our main area for exports.

Does this mean we're doomed? Or is it a blip?

Ireland fell 1.2% by the way...

Well, look here for example: http://www.jobstats.co.uk/

It has never been a worse time to work in IT.

Thrugelmir

Wookster wrote: »

I suspect the private sector has been through the worst of it

Still a slow steady drip of companies relocating, consolidating , downsizing. Relentless squeeze on input costs. Nothing seismic to hit the news radars but happening nevertheless. Working in the business services sector with around 3,000 customers. Its quite noticable that expansion is the last game in town. The corporate world is battening down for a rough ride.

PasturesNew

lemonjelly wrote: »

I'm not exactly sure where it is on a map, but it is slowing down there apparently.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11396874

Could have a big impact on us, as I believe they are our main area for exports.

Does this mean we're doomed? Or is it a blip?

Ireland fell 1.2% by the way...

It's stuff over the water. Stand and look north and it's somewhere over to the right and a bit up and a bit down. Until it gets to people who are further away, then it's not the eurozone.