House prices could slide by as much as 30% between now and 2013

tawse57

A top British fund manager, Neil Woodford, has said that UK house prices will fall by 5 percent to 10 percent for the next 3 years.

For those who do not know who he is he is considered one of the best fund managers in the UK and whilst you might not agree with him on house prices, I think it is important to hear what he is saying.

http://www.citywire.co.uk/new-model-adviser/woodford-says-chances-of-a-uk-double-dip-are-rising/a430617?re=11030&ea=118490

Woodford, manager of the Invesco Perpetual High Income and Income funds, predicted in a live webchat with investors that house prices could slide by as much as 30% between now and 2013, dropping between 5% and 10% a year over the coming 36 months.

This is not financial advice

Dirk_Rambo

great post. not buying now is money-saving at its best. theyve alraedy fallen by at least 30 per cent where i live

Damaged

He also went on to say how "he had been surprised at how well house prices had held up, but added that weaknesses were beginning to emerge as more properties come onto the market."

Which would suggest that his forecasting is not that sound after all

RenovationMan

Its in the interest of an equities fund manager to talk down one asset class in the hope that people move their money into another - i.e. his.

However, I happen to think he's right and that in 3 years time, prices could be down by 15% to 30%. While that percentage figure is nice and wide for Mr. Woodford, I prefer my own percentage band prediction of house prices between the range of +100% and -100%.

I think that my prediction will be 100% accurate. Guaranteed!

Jonbvn

This is the Neil Woodford who some claim has lost his touch, with his funds significantly under performing the market over the last few years. Clearly, he is just trying to drum up business.

Generali

Jonbvn wrote: »

This is the Neil Woodford who some claim has lost his touch, with his funds significantly under performing the market over the last few years. Clearly, he is just trying to drum up business.

Not true:

http://www.citywire.co.uk/new-model-adviser/fund-and-fund-manager-performance/-/unit-trusts/uk-equity-income/fund-factsheet.aspx?FundID=9305&CitywireClassSchemeID=1&CitywireClassID=11

Of the 2 benchmark indices over the past 5 years he was behind his benchmark by about 0.3% once.

http://www.citywire.co.uk/new-model-adviser/fund-and-fund-manager-performance/-/unit-trusts/uk-equity-income/fund-factsheet.aspx?FundID=9311&CitywireClassSchemeID=1&CitywireClassID=11

Same story with this one.

StevieJ

Jonbvn wrote: »

This is the Neil Woodford who some claim has lost his touch, with his funds significantly under performing the market over the last few years. Clearly, he is just trying to drum up business.

He is lucky though, dips completely out of oil shares because the fundamentals were weak, gets that wrong but then BP goes belly up.
Better to be lucky than a good forecaster

StevieJ

Generali wrote: »

Not true:

http://www.citywire.co.uk/new-model-adviser/fund-and-fund-manager-performance/-/unit-trusts/uk-equity-income/fund-factsheet.aspx?FundID=9305&CitywireClassSchemeID=1&CitywireClassID=11

Of the 2 benchmark indices over the past 5 years he was behind his benchmark by about 0.3% once.

http://www.citywire.co.uk/new-model-adviser/fund-and-fund-manager-performance/-/unit-trusts/uk-equity-income/fund-factsheet.aspx?FundID=9311&CitywireClassSchemeID=1&CitywireClassID=11

Same story with this one.

Mainly due to his love affair with the dreaded weed (Tobaccco shares) and the reason I have largely avoided his funds in the past, oh and he is lucky as well (see above).

Blacklight

If prices and inflation remain constant, as they have done, then he'd be quite right.

Pete111

To be fair it's true - House prices COULD drop by 30% in the new few years

Equally, Bob Crow COULD be spotted propping up the bar of the carlton club dressed in tails and a monocle making witty remarks about the great unwashed..

Neither scenario is particularly likely though.

Percy1983

As long as they stay still or go down I will be happy, I have been priced out long enough and now need a bigger deposit, if they stay this way my deposit will get there and I can afford a home and start a family. Past that I don't care what happens, I just want a stable environment to have children, not an investement/pension, just a place to call home.