BBC House prices: Surveyors expect property values to fall

michaels

House prices expected to fall in winter - SHOCK!!!!

IveSeenTheLight

blueboy43 wrote: »

Halifax "standardised price" actually shows a small decrease since the end of 2009.

http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media/word/HPI/2010/HousePriceIndexAugust2010.doc
Your absolutely correct
Aug 09 = £160,947
Dec 09 = £168,763
Aug 10 = £167,953

So for the Halifax index, it's down 0.48% for 2010 and up 4.35% YOY.

Looking pretty stagnant for me.

angrypirate

Generali wrote: »

According to RICS that -38 figure is consistent with a year-on-year increase in nominal house prices of about 2.5% slightly bizarrely.

http://www.rics.org/site/download_feed.aspx?fileID=3&fileExtension=PDF

(Graph 1, page 2)

Correct me if im wrong, but a nominal house price inflation of 2.5% with RPI at 5%, would actually be inflation adjusted HPI of -2.5%?

westv

michaels wrote: »

House prices expected to fall in winter - SHOCK!!!!

How have they done for the last 5 winters?

doire_2

michaels wrote: »

House prices expected to fall in winter - SHOCK!!!!

Did you say the same thing about the rises in the spring?

silvercar

PasturesNew wrote: »

I wonder how they work out what a house is worth ... really. I mean, they walk into a house, it sold 3 years ago for £200k, round the corner one just sold for £175k, but they haven't been in that one. So how do they know if this one's worth £175k, £176k, £150k or what?

They must just make it up really.

House is worth what someone is prepared to pay.

michaels

You have me all wrong, I am more bearish than the next man when it comes to prices (and not only if Hamish happens to be the next man). However surveyors suggesting prices will fall at this time of year is not news unless they are predicting falls larger than the normal cyclical pattern.

doire wrote: »

Did you say the same thing about the rises in the spring?

IveSeenTheLight

angrypirate wrote: »

Correct me if im wrong, but a nominal house price inflation of 2.5% with RPI at 5%, would actually be inflation adjusted HPI of -2.5%?

RPI is on average 4.825% for the year and has fallen for each of the last 4 months
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/downloads/theme_economy/RPIX.pdf

Still, all this shows is the real value compared to another time, regardless if nominally it's higher than before.

Have you considered comparing HPI to wages which many in here say is a better indicator of affordability.

According to this link, wage inflation is under 2%

Generali

angrypirate wrote: »

Correct me if im wrong, but a nominal house price inflation of 2.5% with RPI at 5%, would actually be inflation adjusted HPI of -2.5%?

No correction required.

michaels wrote: »

House prices expected to fall in winter - SHOCK!!!!

From my prior link:

The housing market is highly seasonal; activity typically loses momentum as we progress throughout the calendar year (it is at its highest in January and at its weakest in December). This seasonal pattern is highly visible in the raw (or not seasonally adjusted) data. Therefore, we seasonally adjust the data; by removing any seasonal distortions we able are to look at the underlying state of the market.
• Adjusting for seasonality is standard in the economics field; RICS use a program called X-11 (developed by the US Commerce Department). The reason why we provide the not-seasonally adjusted data alongside the seasonally adjusted data is mainly for transparency purposes; some analysts prefer to adjust for
seasonality themselves (they may use a different seasonal adjustment program).

The August figures:
http://www.rics.org/site/download_feed.aspx?fileID=7443&fileExtension=PDF

The 32% figure is seasonally adjusted. The non-seasonally adjusted figure is 31%. The graph of this looks interesting to me (page 2) - very volatile but trending down I think since about 2005 and maybe even since 1997. Perhaps surveyors found it hard to believe that the housing boom went on as long as it did.

New vendor instructions which RICS say is a proxy for supply dropped from +33 to +12, ie the rate of increase of supply fell but supply rose. That looks like a very noisy number to me looking at the graph on page 2. New buyer enquiries, a demand proxy, fell from -10 to -17, ie demand is falling faster than it was.

RICS say house prices are falling in every region of the UK bar Scotland.

Much to my surprise it's a really interesting survey, packed with details.

ruggedtoast

If the next Nationwide report is down again the denizens of hpc.co.uk are going to start spanking each others monkeys in delight.

Of course the really extraordinarily large falls wont happen until I have exchanged, which will also coincide with spiralling interest rates.

Will probably still beat renting though. Sounds silly but for years now I have wanted one of those pull up bar things you place in a doorway. And never been able to have one.

Thats what I am going to buy mysels as a house warming present.

A pull up exercise bar.

:-|