Number of First Time Buyers Down

doire_2

First-time buyers hit new low amid house price fears

The proportion of first-time buyers is at its lowest level since the beginning of the credit crisis, leading to renewed warnings about a second dip in house prices

The share of the market occupied by first-time buyers dropped to 34 per cent in July, down from 38 per cent the previous month and the lowest proportion since August 2007, according to the latest mortgage statistics from the Council of Mortgage Lenders.

With first time buyers acting as a prop to the housing market, their decline numbers has led to economists concerns about a further drop in house prices.






First-time buyers are struggling to get on the property ladder as banks further tighten lending criteria.
These buyers have a typical deposit of 24 per cent of the value of their home, up from 21 per cent in April.
The number of loans approved to those buying a new home rose to 56,000 in July, up from 52,000 in June - but this remains significantly below long term averages.
Howard Archer, of economists Global Insight, said: “This mortgage data for July remains very low compared to long-term norms and does little to dilute suspicion that house prices will remain under pressure.
“It is also notable that mortgage approvals to first time buyers actually weakened in July, which suggests not only that they may be becoming more reluctant to move into the housing market in the current uncertain economic environment. It also suggests that first time buyers are finding it hard to get mortgages.”
Nicholas Leeming, of property website Zoopla.co.uk, said: “A crucial indicator of the health of the housing market is activity by first time buyers. The lack of attractive mortgage deals, combined with uncertainty around the economic impact of the government’s spending cuts affecting both lenders and borrowers, is seeing many frustrated first-time-buyers opt for renting in the short term.
"The mortgage market remains dominated by the cash-rich, with deposits on new homes increasing once again this month

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/houseprices/7999619/First-time-buyers-hit-new-low-amid-house-price-fears.html

chucky

doire wrote: »

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/houseprices/7999619/First-time-buyers-hit-new-low-amid-house-price-fears.html

sorry to disappoint doire but is as bad as you're trying to make it look like... the percentage look pretty average to me compared to the last few years...

Quarters First time buyers as a percentage of total loans for a house purchase 
 
Q1 2008 38% 
 
Q4 2007 36% 
Q3 2007 34% 
Q2 2007 35% 
Q1 2007 36% 
 
Q4 2006 35% 
Q3 2006 35% 
Q2 2006 36% 
Q1 2006 38% 
 
Q4 2005 38% 
Q3 2005 38% 
Q2 2005 39% 
Q1 2005 30% 
 
Q4 2004 30% 
Q3 2004 28% 
Q2 2004 28% 
Q1 2004 30% 
 
Q4 2003 28% 
Q3 2003 28% 
Q2 2003 31% 
Q1 2003 33% 
 
Q4 2002 39% 
Q3 2002 38% 
Q2 2002 37% 
Q1 2002 40% 
 
Q4 2001 43% 
Q3 2001 44% 
Q2 2001 42% 
Q1 2001 44% 
 
Q4 2000 43% 
Q3 2000 43% 
Q2 2000 44% 
Q1 2000 49% 

Blacklight

I'm seeing this trend more and more - papers printing doom and gloom to try and prop up falling sales as the number of people buying news falls due to the internet, meanwhile the figures confirm the exact opposite is true.

System

What happened in 2003/4?

Thrugelmir

chucky wrote: »

sorry to disappoint doire but is as bad as you're trying to make it look like... the percentage look pretty average to me compared to the last few years...

Quarters First time buyers as a percentage of total loans for a house purchase 
 
Q1 2008 38% 
 
Q4 2007 36% 
Q3 2007 34% 
Q2 2007 35% 
Q1 2007 36% 
 
Q4 2006 35% 
Q3 2006 35% 
Q2 2006 36% 
Q1 2006 38% 
 
Q4 2005 38% 
Q3 2005 38% 
Q2 2005 39% 
Q1 2005 30% 
 
Q4 2004 30% 
Q3 2004 28% 
Q2 2004 28% 
Q1 2004 30% 
 
Q4 2003 28% 
Q3 2003 28% 
Q2 2003 31% 
Q1 2003 33% 
 
Q4 2002 39% 
Q3 2002 38% 
Q2 2002 37% 
Q1 2002 40% 
 
Q4 2001 43% 
Q3 2001 44% 
Q2 2001 42% 
Q1 2001 44% 
 
Q4 2000 43% 
Q3 2000 43% 
Q2 2000 44% 
Q1 2000 49% 

Noticable how the number of FTB's picked up in 2003, and into 2004, once the lenders tapped into the wholesale money markets. Then progressively dropped away again. As even the availibity of easy credit was insufficent in light of the rising market.

Chris2685

chucky wrote: »

sorry to disappoint doire but is as bad as you're trying to make it look like... the percentage look pretty average to me compared to the last few years...

Quarters First time buyers as a percentage of total loans for a house purchase 
 
Q1 2008 38% 
 
Q4 2007 36% 
Q3 2007 34% 
Q2 2007 35% 
Q1 2007 36% 
 
Q4 2006 35% 
Q3 2006 35% 
Q2 2006 36% 
Q1 2006 38% 
 
Q4 2005 38% 
Q3 2005 38% 
Q2 2005 39% 
Q1 2005 30% 
 
Q4 2004 30% 
Q3 2004 28% 
Q2 2004 28% 
Q1 2004 30% 
 
Q4 2003 28% 
Q3 2003 28% 
Q2 2003 31% 
Q1 2003 33% 
 
Q4 2002 39% 
Q3 2002 38% 
Q2 2002 37% 
Q1 2002 40% 
 
Q4 2001 43% 
Q3 2001 44% 
Q2 2001 42% 
Q1 2001 44% 
 
Q4 2000 43% 
Q3 2000 43% 
Q2 2000 44% 
Q1 2000 49% 

Source please?

Graham_Devon

chucky wrote: »

sorry to disappoint doire but is as bad as you're trying to make it look like... the percentage look pretty average to me compared to the last few years...

It's comparing it to last month, not quarter on quarter. Your figures also take into consideration those classed at FTB's who are not, just have been out of the market for over 6 months.

Other thing is, it wasn't doire who wrote the article as far as I'm aware.

ILW

Chris2685 wrote: »

Source please?

Red or Brown?

chucky

Graham_Devon wrote: »

It's comparing it to last month, not quarter on quarter. Your figures also take into consideration those classed at FTB's who are not, just have been out of the market for over 6 months.

no, you missed the point - the article says it was the lowest since August 2007.

i've provided additional data to prove that it's been down to 28% in the past which is much lower than the 36% claimed in the article.

things can't be that bad then...

btw do you think month on month or quarter on quarter would show the percentages any differently? you obviously don't understand how statistics work.

chucky

Chris2685 wrote: »

Source please?

ironically it's from the most perfect source www.hpc.co.uk
i wonder why they stopped producing the numbers after 2008.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/graphs-ftb-percentage.php

Chris2685

Thanks chucky,

Looks like the source for their data was http://www.cml.org.uk

Unfortunately you need to sign up to get the full data (and I presume the FTB data).

This was an interesting one to look at though, but really unrelated to this thread:
http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/filegrab/Grossmortgagelendingtable-July2010.xls?ref=7315

This one tells you a little about FTB data, but not much: http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/media/press/2682