Scots continue buying at inflated prices

kriss_boy

I live in Scotland and I trawl the property pages religiously. Infact its become a ritual, coming home from work and have a quick gander at rightmove over the last few years.

There is no way Im believe house prices are up on or even comparable to those of 2007. Despite Mr Aberdeens sold prices in another thread I could post property after property listed 15% lower than those sold 3 years ago.

Across the board there are properties listed at a fraction of the cost but with no takers.

poppycod

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Glasgow prices have performed very badly by Scottish standards.

Probably because Glasgow is a crap place to live.



It's really quite simple.

In Aberdeen for example, you can log onto any of the house price sites and look at the prices of individual houses that sold in 2007, then see the same houses selling again in 2010 for a higher price. Most of the ones that sold in both years are now selling for more. A few are selling for a tiny amount less.

In most areas of Scotland, prices have risen strongly since the trough, and in some areas, decent houses are now selling for above the previous peak.



The Glasgow market does not reflect most of Scotland.

Glasgow prices have also risen since the bottom last year, but not by as much as most other areas.

Are there just 4 generalisations in this post or are there more?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

kriss_boy wrote: »

I live in Scotland and I trawl the property pages religiously. Infact its become a ritual, coming home from work and have a quick gander at rightmove over the last few years.

There is no way Im believe house prices are up on or even comparable to those of 2007. Despite Mr Aberdeens sold prices in another thread I could post property after property listed 15% lower than those sold 3 years ago.

Across the board there are properties listed at a fraction of the cost but with no takers.

What a perfect example of cognitive dissonance.

Cognitive dissonance:

The theory of cognitive dissonance proposes that people have a motivational drive to reduce dissonance. They do this by changing their attitudes, beliefs, and actions. Dissonance is also reduced by justifying, blaming, and denying clear evidence of house price rises.

Hindsight can clash with prior expectations, as, for example, with renters remorse after failing to purchase a house in the expectation of further price falls that didn't happen.

In a state of dissonance, people may feel surprise, dread, guilt, anger, or embarrassment, at having failed to see the recovery coming or misinterpreting data showing large "real" falls from previous crashes as nominal falls instead, which explains their irrational expectation of further falls and denial of house price rises.

Despite contrary evidence, people are biased to think of their choices as correct and this bias gives dissonance theory its predictive power, shedding light on otherwise puzzling irrational and destructive behavior, like housing bears trolling internet sites obsessively in search of gloomy or bad news.

kriss_boy

Given that I bought in 2008 why on earth would I want house prices to fall?

I just find your evidence hard to believe when I witness more and more properties stagnant on the market at prices considerably lower than those seen in 2007.

Until house sales are up to those comparable in 2006/2007 then no data exists that gives conclusive evidence of which direction prices are going.

Your 'like for like' examples in another thread dont quantify home improvements which are highly probable.

kriss_boy

Can I also offer some simple logic for you to consider.

People are far more likely to sell a property if it provides a profit, not a loss. Its far more likely that those who did pay over the odds in 2007 cannot afford to sell and it'll be a few years yet before those properties are flipped and their current value is revealled.

As I said I look at the property pages religious- pig sick of the bargains to be had.

In 2007 you couldnt touch a dump of a 1 bed flat for under 70K in my area. 3 years later you can get the 2 bed in walk in condition for that money.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

kriss_boy wrote: »

In 2007 you couldnt touch a dump of a 1 bed flat for under 70K in my area. 3 years later you can get the 2 bed in walk in condition for that money.

Yet in my area prices never dropped below January 2007 levels even at trough.

Prices today in Aberdeen are at summer 2007 peak levels. Asking prices, sold prices, valuations, the lot.

Sure, you can still find a bargain in a less than salubrious area. But anything in the mid or upper market is back to peak or close enough as makes no difference.

Graham_Devon

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Yet in my area prices never dropped below January 2007 levels even at trough.

Can you explain the graph on this page then?

http://www.upmystreet.com/properties/house-prices-in-aberdeen.html

LilacPixie

Kriss - you anywhere near me?? there seems quite a few bargains about here too and nowt is moving.

Aberdeen is a weird werid city. Goings on there are not typical of the rest of scotland thank god.

kriss_boy

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Yet in my area prices never dropped below January 2007 levels even at trough.

Prices today in Aberdeen are at summer 2007 peak levels. Asking prices, sold prices, valuations, the lot.

Sure, you can still find a bargain in a less than salubrious area. But anything in the mid or upper market is back to peak or close enough as makes no difference.

What makes you think the areas Im refering to are less desirable than alike areas in Aberdeen! Come on, Aberdeen is hardly Edinburgh nor Glasgow for that matter...

kriss_boy

LilacPixie wrote: »

Kriss - you anywhere near me?? there seems quite a few bargains about here too and nowt is moving.

Aberdeen is a weird werid city. Goings on there are not typical of the rest of scotland thank god.

Im from Fife.

I welcome a drop in house prices because in 3/4 years I anticipate we will buy a nice big family home which 3 years ago didnt look at all possible.