Future interest rates: what the "experts" are saying

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Exocet wrote: »

So Capital Economics are now a revered forecaster .

I never said that.

I merely pointed out what was reported.

That capital economics and the CEBR have been the most accurate predictors of interest rates so far, but even the Times notes Capital Economics have been lousy at house price predictions.

Those are the facts.

Don't shoot the messenger.

ILW

Did any of them predict rates would drop to 0.5% a few years before they did?

wymondham

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Seriously? Over 5 years?

:rotfl:

what about those with massive mortgages who turn to jelly when they contemplate a 0.5% rise?

Really2

ILW wrote: »

Did any of them predict rates would drop to 0.5% a few years before they did?

Has anyone ever predicted any thing accurately a few year in advance?

No one could predict rates falling until the recession started to rear it's head.

If you could forcast things like that exactly and the dates of them you are best keeping it to yourself and become a billionaire.

ILW

Really2 wrote: »

Has anyone ever predicted any thing accurately a few year in advance?

No one could predict rates falling until the recession started to rear it's head.

If you could forcast things like that exactly and the dates of them you are best keeping it to yourself and become a billionaire.

If that is the case, what is the point of discussing these predictions?

wymondham

ILW wrote: »

If that is the case, what is the point of discussing these predictions?

keeps people off the streets?

Really2

ILW wrote: »

If that is the case, what is the point of discussing these predictions?

Use them as a guide, not as gospel.

You asked

ILW wrote: »

Did any of them predict rates would drop to 0.5% a few years before they did?

You missed my question, who has forecast accurately and to the date on anything a few years in advance?

I am saying you can't discount forecasts just because no one forecast it a few years ago. (you can't forecast the unknown, EG you would not forecast rates falling until you thought we were going in to recession)

So I presume you disagreeing with who had done it means you agree that CE and the CEBR are accurate.:) ( I do not think they are but you cant argue that they have been the best of the forecasters before on base rate.)

Graham_Devon

Really2 wrote: »

So I presume you disagreeing with who had done it means you agree that CE and the CEBR are accurate.:) ( I do not think they are but you cant argue that they have been the best of the forecasters before)

Always amazes me how you can take one line, and make it into so much more than was ever said

Heyman_2

ILW wrote: »

Did any of them predict rates would drop to 0.5% a few years before they did?

No they didn't and it's a valid point - however, the only way for rates now is up so it's fair enough that everyone will have a view on when rates will go up, by how much and over what time period.

Personally I don't expect things to play out quite as neatly as most economists expect -I think there will be a specific event or chain of events that will provide the catalyst for rates to be raised, whether it be slowly or rapidly.

Really2

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Always amazes me how you can take one line, and make it into so much more than was ever said

The point is that no one has ever been 100% on all predictions ever.

So if no one predicting it exactly means these predictions are rubbish, every prediction ever made is rubbish.

If so thread over, HPC over etc. etc.

No problem in my eyes but if people want to think because prediction were not spot on years ago means these could not be there or there abouts are fairly blinkered IMHO.

Predictions are estimates based on the foreseable future, not palm readings etc.