Scottish house prices down 2.9% last quarter, slightly up on last year (Lloyds TSB)

IveSeenTheLight

Generali wrote: »

From the graph, nominal prices look to have been pretty much flat for years. It'd be interesting to see them adjusted for inflation.

I'm not really that bothered about a real inflation adjusted calculation.
HPI is really a bonus that's all.
I merely was representing the factual figures released by the Register Of Scotland Executive Agency and questioning the point in the OP's post that the prices were falling.
Different indexes, but I'd rather go with the ROSEA than lloyds TSB.

If you trully want to delve into the inflation adjusted figure, the arguably we could show that house prices have become more affordable through wage inflation (which can be prooved through the ONS figures) as property stagnated.
New homeowners (since 2007) equally will not have been burdoned with negative equity

IveSeenTheLight

chucky wrote: »

i think that he's showing that Aberdeen is above peak prices contrary to people saying that Aberdeen house prices are falling

Not at all, indeed I've repeatedly said that it looks like stagnation for the last three years than a correction and then HPI.

Although the graph included Aberdeen/shire, from my VI point of view, it was in responce the the topic about Scotland falling in the last quarter

Generali

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Presumably they've decreased when adjusted for inflation.

Not that it's relevant to most people, unless you get paid in bananas.

As it is though, prices have been higher every month this year so far than they were in the same month in the peak year of 2007. So house prices have risen, AND so has everything else. Not sure how that helps prospective buyers though.... Or hurts owners who have inflation proofed their housing expenses, and taken advantage of recoed low rates.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Bumping in case Gen missed it.....

I saw it only I was too tired to formulate a response due to a 4am start to watch the Spurs game. Still am really but I'll give it a shot.

So nominal vs real returns.

Most people, even financially savvy people, miss the difference. My Dad used to go on about how he bought his house for £20,000 and it was worth £400,000 or whatever, ignoring the fact that £20,000 in the mid-70s would buy an awful lot more than £20,000 in 2000. Most people do. My Granny bangs on about mews places in Marble Arch and Soho costing a few hundred quid in the 30s and 40s. She couldn't afford them then and she can't now.

I guess it all depends on whether you care how much your place is worth in £££ terms or whether you care about how much you can buy with that money. Inflation has been low in the UK since the late 90s and for most of the time since the early 80s so we've forgotten the eroding power of inflation.

I remember people getting their purchases in before prices rose. In the shop I worked at in the 1980s, I used it as a selling tool. If someone was looking at a purchase I'd get the next month's price list out and show them they'd lose a tenner if they bought a TV or camcorder tomorrow rather than today.

If asset prices are rising in nominal terms then it is accurate to say they are rising in price. If they are rising by less than inflation then that may not be helpful to you as an investor. I guess it depends on whether you want to make money or win an argument.

IveSeenTheLight

Generali wrote: »

I
So nominal vs real returns.

Most people, even financially savvy people, miss the difference. My Dad used to go on about how he bought his house for £20,000 and it was worth £400,000 or whatever, ignoring the fact that £20,000 in the mid-70s would buy an awful lot more than £20,000 in 2000. Most people do. My Granny bangs on about mews places in Marble Arch and Soho costing a few hundred quid in the 30s and 40s. She couldn't afford them then and she can't now.

hmmm, I thought that there are facts to show that house prices have outperformed inflation in the last 30 years, none less than the Nationwide graph

IveSeenTheLight

Interesting recent article
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-11095493

Fall in supply of new houses in Scotland

Generali

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

hmmm, I thought that there are facts to show that house prices have outperformed inflation in the last 30 years, none less than the Nationwide graph

Absolutely right. Nominal Scottish house prices are about flat and have been for 3 years according to the graph posted earlier. HM seems to think that doesn't matter. I think it might matter.

Jowo_2

On a purely anecdotal/observational level, there are about 5 or 6 tenement flats up for sale in a street where I live in Glasgow, none of which are selling, some of which have been on sale for months.

It's only a small street so over the last few years there have tended to be between 3 to 6 sales across the whole year for the last two years so now there's that highest number all on the market together. They are generally on for sale around 5 to 10% lower than 2007, apart from one that seems not to have noticed other similar flats on sale for 10k less so seems to think its 2007 when 10 flats sold.

Totally unscientific and highly localised I know but it looks a fairly stagnant market to me.