Mortgage Lending for new purchase up 19%.

Henry_P_Chester

If less are people are buying and less people can buy what happens to prices?

You still haven't answered my question Chucky... Tick tock.....

chucky

Henry_P_Chester wrote: »

You still haven't answered my question Chucky... Tick tock.....

you still haven't stopped acting the fool HPC... tick tock

Henry_P_Chester

chucky wrote: »

yes you really did get personal... you don't like it when people give it back though do you....


btw.... you forgot to answer this question... tick tock...

I'm merely mimicking your behaviour Chucky. Or should I say mocking...

chucky

Henry_P_Chester wrote: »

I'm merely mimicking your behaviour Chucky. Or should I say mocking...

you can say what you like HPC, it really makes no difference - it's only an internet forum but don't foegt to keep that HPC dream alive.

got to love your never say die attitude - no surrender!!

Henry_P_Chester

chucky wrote: »

got to love your never say die attitude - no surrender!!

Thanks.

I'm sure everyone would rather get back on topic before it decends any further into childishness...

So heres the BOE mortgage approvals for the last 12 months:

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/mfsd/iadb/index.asp?Travel=NIxSTxTAx&levels=1&XNotes=Y&C=112&XNotes2=Y&Nodes=X8745X8746X8761X8772X8784X8796X37883X37884X50344X37893&SectionRequired=A&HideNums=-1&ExtraInfo=false&G0Xtop.x=40&G0Xtop.y=9

30-Jun-09 50707
31-Jul-09 532514
31-Aug-09 53112
30-Sep-09 55875
31-Oct-09 56806
30-Nov-09 58995
31-Dec-09 57854
31-Jan-10 47641
28-Feb-10 46830
31-Mar-10 48828
30-Apr-10 49603
31-May-10 49461
30-Jun-10 47643



July preliminary approvals showed today at 47,000 according to the trends in lending release from the bank.

Currently approvals are down 7% year on year

http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKTRE67I1DD20100819

Mortgage approvals for house purchase made by Britain's six biggest lenders -- Santander, Barclays, HSBC, Lloyds, Nationwide and RBS -- dropped to 47,000 in July from 48,000 in June, its lowest since May 2009.

DervProf

chucky wrote: »

i'm sure it will but behave yourself prof

Might do.

Anyway, I didn`t start it........




Ooooops, just read the previous post. Sorry Mr Chester.

Right mortgage approvals are down. (Of course, Hamish, or someone similar will twist that statistic around to suit their own argument, or their own interests). So, does this mean the outlook for house prices is up or down ? It seems like a Mexican standoff at the moment.

The question I`m asking myself is - approvals down, people can`t borrow, or the banks won`t lend ? I suppose a bull`s argument will be the banks won`t lend enough, but prices aren`t falling through the floor, so it`s just a case of waiting for the money taps to be turned on again. I`m thinking that if tight lending continues, then the pressure will be for price falls. Public spending cuts and the gradual realisation that easy credit isn`t coming back any time soon, might make vendors compete against each other a little more. And if they have to sell for a bit less, surely they can buy for a bit less ?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

DervProf wrote: »

And if they have to sell for a bit less, surely they can buy for a bit less ?

Except as prices fall, it brings many vendors into negative equity, and it drops even more vendors into a worse LTV bracket, making it no longer viable to sell and move.

So they don't sell, they remove their house from the market, and supply reduces, driving up prices again.

Rinse and repeat.

Henry_P_Chester

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Except as prices fall, it brings many vendors into negative equity, and it drops even more vendors into a worse LTV bracket, making it no longer viable to sell and move.

So they don't sell, they remove their house from the market, and supply reduces, driving up prices again.

Rinse and repeat.

Of course this only applies to those who bought in the last few years or those on IO mortgages. The vast majority will have no problem dropping their price but 20 or 30% from here and as the market drops, although getting less for their house, they will also pay less for the next one and if upsizing the lower the price the less it will cost for the move.

And then theres all the public sector redundancies and possible rising interest rates to come...


Further to this you have all the pent up supply from the last three years coming onto the market all at once as the prospect of prices falling further sinks in, causing a glut, just what we are seeing now.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Henry_P_Chester wrote: »

Of course this only applies to those who bought in the last few years or those on IO mortgages.

It's a very significant percentage of the market. With decent mortgage rates requiring 25% equity, you're talking about many millions of people who would be unable to move if prices fell significantly.

Which is why the supply of housing fell 45% last time prices dipped.

The vast majority will have no problem dropping their price but 20 or 30% from here and as the market drops, although getting less for their house, they will also pay less for the next one and if upsizing the lower the price the less it will cost for the move.

The evidence proves your assertion to be wrong.

The vast majority are clearly either unwilling or unable to sell their house for 30% less.

Which is why supply fell off a cliff with just 20% falls, and prices rebounded so strongly.

Besides, the gap between FTB and 2TB properties actually widened when prices fell, so most upsizers don't benefit at all.

And then theres all the public sector redundancies and possible rising interest rates to come... Further to this you have all the pent up supply from the last three years coming onto the market all at once as the prospect of prices falling further sinks in, causing a glut, just what we are seeing now.

Actually, it's the removal of HIPS that cause the supply glut, as the kite flyers returned to the market.

Yes, it's causing a supply spike, but this will be temporary, as the reality is that most people simply cannot afford to sell at a significant discount.

If prices fall, supply will once again fall off a cliff, and we know what happens then.....

Graham_Devon

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

It's a very significant percentage of the market. With decent mortgage rates requiring 25% equity, you're talking about many millions of people who would be unable to move if prices fell significantly.

Which is why the supply of housing fell 45% last time prices dipped.




The evidence proves your assertion to be wrong.

The vast majority are clearly either unwilling or unable to sell their house for 30% less.

Which is why supply fell off a cliff with just 20% falls, and prices rebounded so strongly.

Besides, the gap between FTB and 2TB properties actually widened when prices fell, so most upsizers don't benefit at all.



Actually, it's the removal of HIPS that cause the supply glut, as the kite flyers returned to the market.

Yes, it's causing a supply spike, but this will be temporary, as the reality is that most people simply cannot afford to sell at a significant discount.

If prices fall, supply will once again fall off a cliff, and we know what happens then.....

You are of course, ignoring every single measure thrown at the economy here, and simply stating prices rose because people wouldnt sell for less.

Thats nonsense, and you know it. It may have been an element, but only an element that was able to take hold because of all the other measures out there.