Mortgage Lending for new purchase up 19%.

doire_2

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Ooops, wrong month.

But gross mortgage lending up another 5% in July, from todays release.

http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/media/press/2694

Lenders predict slow UK mortgage market in 2010

Nice headline from the BBC

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11022490

Thrugelmir

Really2 wrote: »

Gross lending tells you squat about prices, if everyone remortgaged this month and not one house sold would that mean we are in a boom?

Gross lending figures shows market trends. For clarification net lending figures from CML memembers are:-

2007 - 108 bn
2008 - 40 bn
2009 - 12 bn
2010 - 12 bn ( originally forecast at 15 bn but revised downwards).

CML now accounts for 94% of all lending. Back a few years, there were far more lenders in the market. So the figures published by the CML for say 2007 were a lower % of total lending.

chucky

nearlynew wrote: »

But the OP is about mortgage lending.

but that's the point - only about 50k are being used for mortgage approvals. there are somewhere between 70k and 80k house sales that are going through each month.

less people are buying property and if prices drop even less people will be able to buy property.

chucky

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Gross lending figures shows market trends. For clarification net lending figures from CML memembers are:-

2007 - 108 bn
2008 - 40 bn
2009 - 12 bn
2010 - 12 bn ( originally forecast at 15 bn but revised downwards).

CML now accounts for 94% of all lending. Back a few years, there were far more lenders in the market. So the figures published by the CML for say 2007 were a lower % of total lending.

ahhhh great Devonian tactic - we're looking at trends not prices now from your original post. brilliant...

nearlynew

No. No. No.


Falling prices enable more people to buy.

Thrugelmir

chucky wrote: »

at least 1/3 of property being bought at the moment is being bought by cash buyers - they are not going to be FTBs.

if anything it's further proof that falling prices are enabling people with money or investors to be able to buy - that's very different from further proof that falling prices are enabling more people to buy.

The biggest category of cash buyers will be pensioners and other individuals looking to downsize (or move geographical region) and realise equity.

So does little to support your view that falling prices are enabling more new buyers to enter the market.

Really2

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Gross lending figures shows market trends. For clarification net lending figures from CML memembers are:-

2007 - 108 bn
2008 - 40 bn
2009 - 12 bn
2010 - 12 bn ( originally forecast at 15 bn but revised downwards).

CML now accounts for 94% of all lending. Back a few years, there were far more lenders in the market. So the figures published by the CML for say 2007 were a lower % of total lending.

That is down to base rate being down to 0.5%, thus people not remortgaging.

If it was the case you could tell price growth you would be saying there would be currently 9X fewer houses sold than 2007 just for prices to be the same.

Current transaction are 86,000 PM around half of peak (well less than half of 2007 average I think) so I will stick with gross lending tells you squat about booms or bust.

When rates go up gross lending will shoot up as people remortgage, that will not be a sign of rampant HPI.

Graham_Devon

chucky wrote: »

less people are buying property and if prices drop even less people will be able to buy property.

But more people will be able to afford property if it falls.

chucky

Thrugelmir wrote: »

The biggest category of cash buyers will be pensioners and other individuals looking to downsize (or move geographical region) and realise equity.

can you prove your assumption?

also so who is buying the property their selling or are they one sided transactions?

Thrugelmir wrote: »

So does little to support your view that falling prices are enabling more new buyers to enter the market.

when house prices are falling or when house prices are at their lowest point - less people buy. fact. look back at any house price correction.

ps. please don't bore me with the looking back in the rear mirror nonsense too

chucky

Graham_Devon wrote: »

But more people will be able to afford property if it falls.

more people will probably be able to afford it but they won't be getting any mortgages so less people will be in a position to buy.