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Debate House Prices
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Age of home ownership coming to an end...
Comments
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I remember, at the height of the Japanese property bubble......................
There are so many differences between the Japanese and UK housing markets that it's not possible to make a direct comparison.:wall:
What we've got here is....... failure to communicate.
Some men you just can't reach.
:wall:0 -
1. Japan is an island.IveSeenTheLight wrote: »There are so many differences between the Japanese and UK housing markets that it's not possible to make a direct comparison.
2. They're not building any more land.
3. House prices never go down.
4. er, that's it.
Happy to hear why "it could never happen here".0 -
1. Japan is an island.
2. They're not building any more land.
3. House prices never go down.
4. er, that's it.
Happy to hear why "it could never happen here".
Japan has a declining population.
Japan allows virtually no permanent immigration.
Japan is not a participant in the EU, with the open borders legislation for citizens of EU nations which that entails.
At Japans property peak, prices reached US$1,000,000 per square metre.... When the Chairman of Sony cannot afford to buy, it's pretty much impossible for prices to do anything but fall. And if we ever reach that point here...... I'll turn bear.
“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
Nice one. 5 minutes later, question answered. It's slightly curious to think that up to the peak of the Japanese bubble they were breeding prolifically, and then as soon as they stopped breeding prices fell off a cliff and never recovered. It sounds like a chicken and egg thing. Did they stop having sex and prices crashed. Or did prices crash which put them off having sex?HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »Japan has a declining population.
Japan allows virtually no permanent immigration.
Japan is not a participant in the EU, with the open borders legislation for citizens of EU nations which that entails.
You have five mintues to reply.0 -
Did they stop having sex and prices crashed. Or did prices crash which put them off having sex?
You have five mintues to reply.
Neither.
It was the "hello kitty" phenomenen..... Two decades of Japanaese women filling their houses with hello kitty tat would be enough to put any man off sex forever.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
Jesus. I googled that and agree it is certainly offputting. No wonder then that their house prices have failed to recover.HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »Neither.
It was the "hello kitty" phenomenen..... Two decades of Japanaese women filling their houses with hello kitty tat would be enough to put any man off sex forever.0 -
1. Japan is an island.
2. They're not building any more land.
3. House prices never go down.
4. er, that's it.
Happy to hear why "it could never happen here".HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »Japan has a declining population.
Japan allows virtually no permanent immigration.
Japan is not a participant in the EU, with the open borders legislation for citizens of EU nations which that entails.
At Japans property peak, prices reached US$1,000,000 per square metre.... When the Chairman of Sony cannot afford to buy, it's pretty much impossible for prices to do anything but fall. And if we ever reach that point here...... I'll turn bear.
You missed out on the amount of value a property retains because of its lifespan.
Properties in Japan need to be rebuilt far often than in the UK
http://www.japanwindow.com/archives/my_life_here/2005/part_1_building_a_house_in_japan.html:wall:
What we've got here is....... failure to communicate.
Some men you just can't reach.
:wall:0 -
IveSeenTheLight wrote: »Hamish doesn't cheer on a process of depriving others.
He's pointed out many times that those wishing for a crash are doing so.
Reason being that credit tightens and fewer people have the access to credit thus less likely they can purchase a property.
We could then debate that those cheering on a crash are immoral.
Have you in a round about way described yourself as immoral?
To have a crash, you have to have had excess beforehand. Otherwise there would be no crash.
No one can say Hamish does not cheer on this excess, it's clear he does, even to himself, he's admitted it, as Hamish is like that, does admit when he is wrong, and admit's his true stance.
Therefore, can we also say Hamish is cheering on a crash? It's always been an inevitable consequence of excess.0 -
But that would have been the case when they were rising in value. Unless, at the same time as the wives went off sex and started purchasing Hello Kitty stuff then the houses started to built in a more slipshod fashion.IveSeenTheLight wrote: »You missed out on the amount of value a property retains because of its lifespan.
Properties in Japan need to be rebuilt far often than in the UK
http://www.japanwindow.com/archives/my_life_here/2005/part_1_building_a_house_in_japan.html
It's interesting how the negative Japan arguments only apply after the crash. Maybe that is symptomatic of bubbles generally, and you will be explaining the UK crash in a similar fashion when and if it happens.0 -
Maybe that is symptomatic of bubbles generally, and you will be explaining the UK crash in a similar fashion when and if it happens.
Oh it is very much the case that bubbles are extremely difficult to differentiate from supply/demand imbalances. And a genuine supply/demand driven price spike can then grow legs of it's own and turn into a bubble where the fundamentals no longer support the gains.
But in the case of Japan, where the Chairman of Sony could not afford to buy a house, it became clear.
Likewise today, in parts of China where house prices are 88 times average income, it's pretty clear.
But in the UK we're just not there yet. We have growing population, a shortage of housing, very limited supply, and average property prices of just 0.75 times income more than the long term average. (Halifax historical series, male, mean, 4,75 today vs 4.0 long term average)
The problem is, some posters assume EVERY large price spike MUST be a bubble without any foundation in market fundamentals.
Which is obviously nonsense. As most of those who STR-ed in the last decade found out to their cost.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0
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