FTB's "Missing Deal Of A Lifetime"

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

DervProf wrote: »

I`m also a "visitor" from hpc.co.uk (as if you didn`t guess). I note that I`ve had a "pop" at the resident bulls Sibley and McTavish, but haven`t really had a decent response. They seem to have lost their edge, which is rather disappointing. ?

Sorry to disappoint old boy, but it's a bit hard to get worked up about something after I've already been proven so comprehensively right.

I predicted Zirp, QE, SLS, mortgage rescue and stimulus, and all months before they happened. I called peak to trough in my own market to within 1%, called the bottom in Aberdeen within a month of it happening, the oil price recovery and trading range of crude for the year to within a couple of percent, and accurately predicted the time compression of this crash versus the previous one. I predicted the self correcting nature of supply, the stabilisation of the market at lower transaction levels, and I predicted the fact that mortgage rationing would ensure most bears who wished for and cheered on a crash would not be able to take advantage. (something that pleases me no end)

Nobody get's it right 100% of the time, and I was wrong on a few things too.... such as the timing of QE by 6 months and consequentially the national peak to trough by 7%, but overall I'm comfortable that I called it better than anyone else on hpc in those days. (Daddybear got it right for the wrong reasons, Sibley is a perma-bull, no different to the perma-bears)

Ultimately though, the bulls won. Therefore there is little to get excited about anymore.

Graham_Devon

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Ultimately though, the bulls won.

What did you win?

Was it priddy?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Graham_Devon wrote: »

What did you win?

A million extra families still in work and their own home.

Was it priddy?

I think so.

julieq

Any chance of an answer to the savings interest question Graham?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Getting an answer isn't the hard part.

Getting a comprehensible answer, on the other hand.....

DervProf

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Sorry to disappoint old boy, but it's a bit hard to get worked up about something after I've already been proven so comprehensively right.

I predicted Zirp, QE, SLS, mortgage rescue and stimulus, and all months before they happened. I called peak to trough in my own market to within 1%, called the bottom in Aberdeen within a month of it happening, the oil price recovery and trading range of crude for the year to within a couple of percent, and accurately predicted the time compression of this crash versus the previous one. I predicted the self correcting nature of supply, the stabilisation of the market at lower transaction levels, and I predicted the fact that mortgage rationing would ensure most bears who wished for and cheered on a crash would not be able to take advantage. (something that pleases me no end)

Nobody get's it right 100% of the time, and I was wrong on a few things too.... such as the timing of QE by 6 months and consequentially the national peak to trough by 7%, but overall I'm comfortable that I called it better than anyone else on hpc in those days. (Daddybear got it right for the wrong reasons, Sibley is a perma-bull, no different to the perma-bears)

Ultimately though, the bulls won. Therefore there is little to get excited about anymore.

Congratulations on your victory Hamish (I didn`t know there was a competition going on, but well done for winning it). And keep that crystal ball in a safe place, it must be a good one.

"I predicted the fact that mortgage rationing would ensure most bears who wished for and cheered on a crash would not be able to take advantage. (something that pleases me no end)".

So, a small amount of bears who wished for a crash haven`t been able to take advantage because of mortgage rationing. Mortgage rationing is keeping a much higher number of people out of the property market, or preventing them from moving. This pleases you no end ?

I mean, the bulls often crtisise the bears for wishing hardship on people, something that you seem to be celebrating.

DervProf

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Houses are at peak affordability.

I challenged you about this statement, more than once I believe, and I haven`t yet had a response.

It`s a pretty bold statement to say that houses are at peak affordability. In fact, I think you know I could make your statement look totally ridiculous (which it is). I say that this is a typical "buy now or miss out" statement, often put out by property rampers.


As you said earlier...........

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Getting an answer isn't the hard part.

Getting a comprehensible answer, on the other hand.....

Thrugelmir

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

I predicted Zirp, QE, SLS, mortgage rescue and stimulus, and all months before they happened.

So why didn't you tell us to dump HBOS shares if you knew their funding situation was so bad ?

DervProf

Thrugelmir wrote: »

So why didn't you tell us to dump HBOS shares if you knew their funding situation was so bad ?

Crystall ball malfunction, I reckon.

Linton

DervProf wrote: »

......

So, a small amount of bears who wished for a crash haven`t been able to take advantage because of mortgage rationing. Mortgage rationing is keeping a much higher number of people out of the property market, or preventing them from moving. This pleases you no end ?

I mean, the bulls often crtisise the bears for wishing hardship on people, something that you seem to be celebrating.

It seems to me you still dont understand supply and demand.

One reason for prices to fall IS mortgage rationing. That reduces the demand because fewer people are in a position to buy. So there is no way that rationed mortgages can prevent bears taking advantage of lower prices - if mortgages weren't rationed prices wouldn't be lower.

Look at it another way. If there are 1000 people wanting to buy a house and 100 houses on the market, prices would rise so that only the 100 richest people could afford to buy.

If severe mortgage rationing removes a random 800 buyers then prices would fall so that 50% of those remaining were able to buy.

But no matter what you did, there would still only be 100 people buying a house - mortgage rationing, rising prices, rising deposits etc just change who those 100 people are.

OK the real world is more complex than that with assorted feedback loops that would for example change the numbers of houses on the market, but the core process I believe is as outlined above.