Offer accepted (Right or Wrong)

Dave_Simmons

I have just accepted (4 weeks ago) an offer on my house and now we are getting close to the exchange I have found this website for the first time and am getting cold feet.

In 2007 (assumed peak of market) my neighbour in and identical house sold for £320k, In Nov 2009 another neighbour sold for £307k and I have been offered £345k today. I am planning to rent for anything from 6 months to 2 years on the assumption that 1) I have got the best price I will probably get for my place in the next 2 years, 2) I will have £300k in the bank waiting for me to be a cash buyer elsewhere, This is not just a money thing as we are planning to move location (100miles) in 2012 when my daughter finishes college and goes to Uni.

I am therefore banking on a housing market that either stay still or maybe even takes a dip between now and 2012 and also I will be able to get a good deal on a future house due to my ability to look around for 2 years and pay cash if necessary when the time comes.

right or wrong, I am not trying to make a total killing on the market, It's more that I have to well in 2 years time and I think It might be the price today is as good or better than it will be in 2 years, I worry if I don't take this offer I could be scrabbling around trying to get a £300k offer when I really need to be moving.

Exocet

You should probably post this on the House Buying Board. But you will be competing with the Dead Dog story.

new_home_owner_3

Exocet wrote: »

You should probably post this on the House Buying Board. But you will be competing with the Dead Dog story.

why this is the house prices board and thats what they are asking about.

You have to ask yourself are house prices going up? or going down?
When you have made your decision on this, you should know whether to sell or not.

I dont think house prices will go up or go down short term, i think they will stay roughly about the same until next spring and then i think they we will have to look at it again.

your talking 2 years away which is a quite a long way off, if house prices did go like the last 12 months you coul be making a very big mistake.

i would do some research on the local market to you, i would also look at what the bbc,sky and what all the papers are reporting and then make your decision.

good luck

tomterm8

I wouldn't recommend trying to time the market. It doesn't work, since it takes a long time to buy a house, so if you were 100% sure at a market top or a market bottom, you'd still probably miss out

I don't know if house prices will rise or fall, I suspect that if things start change either way, you will have some warning.

Exocet

There's 173 viewers on the other House Buying thread, and 17 on here including rewired.

How much effort to copy and paste?

phil_b_2

It sounds like you are doing the right thing if you intend to move in the near future. If I was looking to sell up and move away I would want to be chain free and be able to make cash offers. That opens up more possibilities. You could look at auctions etc and have a do-er upper fund.

Davesnave

I think you'll be right to sell and have the flexibility you speak of. National figures may go up or down, but it's what's happening in your chosen locality which will count most. Assuming it's not in London or the South East hot spots, there shouldn't be much pressure on you in the forseeable future.

We sold at the end of 2008 for less than we wanted, but our feeling was that the market would fall further, so we rented. While we were correct in our thinking, when we bought 8 months later it wasn't because the market had bottomed, it was because we found a fantastic deal from someone who needed to sell fast. Had we not been in a position to say, "Cash, six weeks, done & dusted" we wouldn't be here now, simple as that.

There are always people who need to sell. The difficult bit is matching yourself up with one who has a property you want. Having the time to wait is part of the key to that.

Bullfighter

Macro economics should not really play a part in your life decisions.. they can take decades to evolve. That said I would not rush into buying a house when the economic picture is so bleak.

My personal belief (back up by my actions) is that house prices will collapse to 1999/2000 (pre-bubble) levels.. however if you can buy outright now versus renting then I would buy with cash and forget house prices until I am reviewing my will.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Dave_Simmons wrote: »

I am therefore banking on a housing market that either stay still or maybe even takes a dip between now and 2012 .

The housing market is always a gamble in the short term.

Most economists think stagnation or small rises are the most likely scenario, although some very respected bodies like the CEBR think we'll be 20% higher by 2014. A few, like Capital Economics, think we'll have big falls, although their track record to date is absolutely abysmal.

If you can get an above peak price now, take it, but keep a very close eye on your target market, and be prepared to buy in earlier than you expected if prices continue rising.

martinbuckley

If you are only planning to buy when your daughter is off to uni, then surely you will be downsizing, as she'll either no longer need a room, or she will only require a smaller room to keep a few of her items in.

You should be ok renting for 2 years as I dont think the prices are going to go up by much, if at all over that period.

michaels

If you stay invested in property then you are neutral to market moves, if you STR you are taking a punt on house prices. Efficient market theory says if you win it is luck rather than skill. Good luck with your punt.

FWIW my guess would support your actions but I'm not putting money on the hunch just as I'm not gambling on share prices or horses.