FTB - Would you?

Graham_Devon

Linton wrote: »

Because for house prices to fall something must have happened to make it more difficult to buy a house - interest rates up or required deposit up or mortgages restricted or increased chance of unemployment or whatever.

Right...

So if you feel this is going to happen, and reduce prices, and you wait, and therefore build up your deposit....

How are you going to be worse off, when the house is now 22k cheaper?

Graham_Devon

Malcolm. wrote: »

Because the housing market has crashed so much, the banks capital has taken a hit, and no-one will give you a mortgage.

See, this is strange.

On the one hand, the bulls state no one will give out mortgages if houses crash.

On the other hand, they say "if house prices fell that much, i'd be out buying three".

Plus, you may, or may not have noticed, but the housing market crashed. People still got mortgages. Just the mortgages required a higher deposit.

Now, considering we are talking about someone CHOOSING to wait because of the outlook, and therefore know all this, how are they worse off?

Are all mortgages gonna go now?! Is that the new bull line?

Give us a break, you are all running circles around yourselves.

Linton

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Right...

So if you feel this is going to happen, and reduce prices, and you wait, and therefore build up your deposit....

How are you going to be worse off, when the house is now 22k cheaper?

If you have been able to save so you are in a better position than everyone else to buy, sure you win your place in the queue and gain financially - if your feeling of house price drops is correct.

If it's not you are worse off - houses are more expensive and you still dont have anywhere to live.

Its the same as investing in anything. Except for the starting assumption, many threads ago, which was that you do actually want to buy a house.

The history of this forum does suggest that I might be right in saying that future house prices are unpredictable.

So to return to the point I was making when these threads started IF you want to buy a house to live in and can afford it now, buy now.

If you are purely trading on the housing market, well that's a different matter. Though if trading is what you want to do, surely there are rather more convenient things than houses to trade in.

Graham_Devon

Linton wrote: »

If you have been able to save so you are in a better position than everyone else to buy, sure you win your place in the queue and gain financially - if your feeling of house price drops is correct.

So you will gain.

Good, righto. Bit different to what you said a min ago.

Linton

As a relative newcomer is it always this difficult???

Graham_Devon wrote: »

See, this is strange.

On the one hand, the bulls state no one will give out mortgages if houses crash.

No its the other way round, if mortgages cease to be available house prices could well drop.

On the other hand, they say "if house prices fell that much, i'd be out buying three".

No I say that if you are right and houses suddenly became very affordable with no impediments to purchase I could be buying three, or more likely me and 3 mates who previously couldnt afford a house would want to buy one each. This would increase demand and so raise house prices again, which is why your scenario wont happen.

Plus, you may, or may not have noticed, but the housing market crashed. People still got mortgages. Just the mortgages required a higher deposit.

And so the houses were less affordable.

Now, considering we are talking about someone CHOOSING to wait because of the outlook, and therefore know all this, how are they worse off?

Are all mortgages gonna go now?! Is that the new bull line?

Give us a break, you are all running circles around yourselves.

Linton

Graham_Devon wrote: »

So you will gain.

Good, righto. Bit different to what you said a min ago.

What I was saying applies to the FTBers in general. Sure, if circumstances change some individuals will gain and some will lose. Overall the situation will be much the same.

And since you cant predict the future you dont know whether you will be a winner or a loser.

sabretoothtigger

More money has been produced in the last few years then houses therefore house prices could keep rising while value still declines.

If you are happy to live in half the house size in order to save a deposit it sounds quite sensible but as soon as you have enough LTV to get a 10 year fix rate this is what I would recommend

The reason being the interest rate range is roughly between zero and ten. Right now we are closer to zero then ten, in the past its been roughly half way but in future I see the other side of the see saw as bringing us back closer to ten for a while.
No grand dramatics or intricate details required for that just seems a fair balanced probability

Since finance is half the cost like you say I would aim to capture the low cost presently available as I do not think it will get cheaper

sjaypink

Malcolm. wrote: »

I'm really bored tonight....

Can you tell? .

...........

treliac

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

Right now we are closer to zero then ten, in the past its been roughly half way but in future I see the other side of the see saw as bringing us back closer to ten for a while.

If that happens, how ever many people will be forced to sell / repossessed? And what would that do to house prices?

Goodness only knows who would buy all the houses flooding on to the market and goodness only knows where all the dispossessed would be housed.

It sounds a nightmare scenario. :eek:

treliac

Malcolm. wrote: »

I may have to delete these in the morning, else no one will take me seriously.
I'll be grouped with the likes of Graham and Hamish. Yikes!

Too late.... your words are immortalised.

And Graham is great. And Hamish could be... if he'd just accept that house prices are headed downwards.