House prices could fall by 25% amid new lending rules

mc2705

StevieJ wrote: »

Let me have a guess, slow buck?

Slow doe surely?

Conrad

It is true that millions of people are now on the face of it locked out of borrowing, but a great many will find ways around the system just as they did in the past. You will find a great many more mortgage applicants happen to claim to be employed rather than self employed as an example.

Those with poor credit are locked out for now, but with high fees and margins now easy for lenders to charge, money will find it's way to the UK lending scene in the comming years.
In the end investors can make very decent margins, and have a pretty secure investment as the property will cover the bulk of any lending and even if there is negative equity, the percentage being repossessed will typically be a very small number, and on those the losses will only be partial anyway.

RDB

StevieJ wrote: »

That is quite bullish, real house prices reaching their 2007 peak again in 2020 and a 50% chance that it will be before then, 30% chance by 2015.

The title is "House prices could fall by 25% amid new lending rules may"

" It said there was a 70 per cent chance that the real cost of a property in 2015 would be below that in 2007 "


You think thats BULLISH?

What if someone said gold and silver real prices will be worth less than 2007 prices in the next 5 to 10 years?

I wonder how many people would think thats bullish about gold and silver?

StevieJ

RDB wrote: »

The title is "House prices could fall by 25% amid new lending rules may"

" It said there was a 70 per cent chance that the real cost of a property in 2015 would be below that in 2007 "


You think thats BULLISH?

What if someone said gold and silver real prices will be worth less than 2007 prices in the next 10 to 15 years?

I wonder how many people would think thats bullish about gold and silver?

What a strange comparison, I don't think Gold and Silver prices were close to a record high in 2007 were they? whereas many on here say that real house prices will NEVER again reach the prices seen in 2007.

Exocet

StevieJ wrote: »

What a strange comparison, I don't think Gold and Silver prices were close to a record high in 2007 were they? whereas many on here say that real house prices will NEVER again reach the prices seen in 2007.

Of course they will reach that level one day. The question, to which none of us (even Generali) knows the answer is - when?

RDB

StevieJ wrote: »

What a strange comparison, I don't think Gold and Silver prices were close to a record high in 2007 were they?

Its not a strange comparison at all if you study history.

All through history house prices and gold and silver have been in cycles that can be compared with each other.

Gold was near its all time high in 2007 and since then has blown past it. Silver is nowhere near its all time high yet, and thats not even inflation adjusted.

Its just that if the housing bulls are starting to say that this article is bullish then I would hate to see one they call bearish.

StevieJ

Exocet wrote: »

Of course they will reach that level one day. The question, to which none of us (even Generali) knows the answer is - when?

Talking real inflation adjusted prices.

Exocet

StevieJ wrote: »

Talking real inflation adjusted prices.

Do what? Oh I see. Got a bit of a clever clogs in the house.

Basics first. Ignoring all the inflation stuff the ticket price will of course reach and surpass the previous heights at some stage. That's bleeding obvious.

But the inflation thingy real time whatever. Well, probably. After all in the future there will be crazy lending and crazy bubbles again. There always is. And a new generation will be saying "look Grandad, we can make a fortune out of BTL" and we will probably shake our heads.

Graham_Devon

StevieJ wrote: »

What a strange comparison, I don't think Gold and Silver prices were close to a record high in 2007 were they? whereas many on here say that real house prices will NEVER again reach the prices seen in 2007.

They actually say house prices.

The "real" part has only entered the arena in the last couple of months, when falls have started and seems to be the be all and end all to some

Before these falls, real prices were never mentioned. so long as the line on the graph reached the same position it was at peak, that's all that mattered.

We need a new set of rules me thinks.

RDB

Of course house prices will reach the real level of 2007 again one day. Houses have always gone from overvalued to undervalued and back again.

Right now we are on our way from overvalued to undervalued. The cycle will continue as it always has done.

https://wealthcycles.com/video/catching-wave